2025年2月20日星期四

文昭三篇推文:谈俄乌战争、美国欧盟军援乌克兰等

第一篇:舆论场中的声音有很大一部分是扭曲失真……

(转自推特)文昭談古論今@wenzhaocomment

https://x.com/wenzhaocomment/status/1892234857423552905

 

这两天因为川普启动的与俄罗斯和谈,为他招来了许多骂,特别是说他抛弃了乌克兰和欧盟,要单独去和普京媾和,宰制乌克兰的未来。乌克兰反侵略三年,有巨大的付出,是当今世界上民主和专制对抗的前线之一,关心她的命运,担心她被逼接受城下之盟心情可以理解。不过很多意见还是情绪成分更重,而且断章取义的资讯,扭曲的资讯这两天充塞着各个角落。比如:说212日川普先给普京打了电话,再通知泽连斯基,这表示川普心里把普京放在第一位。

其实有记者问过这个问题,川普对此解释过了。因为在120日之前,川普已经见过了泽连斯基,在和普京通电话前,川普团队和泽连斯基已经有过了几轮磋商,甚至已经有了乌克兰稀土换军火的提议。川普就任前、和上任的头两个星期是先和乌克兰磋商,然后才给普京打电话的。但是在212日打电话当天,是普京在前、泽连斯基在后,只截取一个切片来说事,是不客观不全面的。

另外说谈判抛开了欧盟和乌克兰,事实是川普有两个特使,一个与俄罗斯谈判特使、也同时他的中东问题特使威特科夫;另一个是他的乌克兰特使凯洛格。威特科夫在沙特的时候,凯洛格在欧洲。对乌克兰的军事援助也没停止。

所以现在舆论场中的声音有很大一部分是扭曲失真、是情绪的发泄。凯洛格将军表示自己来欧洲的使命是倾听,盟国有什么抱怨和担心都可以说,不是来传递什么立场的,也不施加威胁,说明美国政府目前并没有要抛开欧洲的既定想法。而冯德莱恩最新的表态,愿与美国携手(partner with),达成持久公正的和平,也意味着欧盟的思路也正在发生变化,从一部分成员国坚持普京必须被打败、乌克兰必须恢复她2014年以前的疆界,转到达成务实和平上来。只是这种和平是公正、可持久的。

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第二篇:欧盟对乌克兰军援等问题……

https://x.com/wenzhaocomment/status/1892253040763105566

(转自推特)文昭談古論今@wenzhaocomment

 

218日德国政府开出了对乌克兰援助的新的军火清单,224日欧盟委员会会派一个代表团访问乌克兰,到时会带去一份价值60亿欧元的援助方案。虽然欧洲有自强的迹像,但是我简单看了一下援助方案,并不是突破性的。援助物品中一大部分是炮弹、一小部分防空武器、一些装甲车和无人机。然而实际上乌克兰最需要的是有生力量补充——兵力;再来是远距离攻击性武器,这种武器最急需的是现代化战机,F-15F16,战场制空权能极大抑制俄军兵力优势的发挥,同时加上机载武器的射程,能打击俄罗斯更纵深的经济、战略目标。如果获得战机有难度,就是获得如巡航导弹和弹道导弹。但是这三样:派兵、战机、和远程武器欧盟仍然无法提供给乌克兰,从新的援助清单上看,仍然是防御性的、和常规消耗性的物资,最多是维持前线的消耗。

如果真的坚持普京应该被打败的前提,欧盟应该提供前面讲的几项物资。乌克兰大部分地方距离莫斯科的距离都在1000公里以内,俄罗斯经济的显著部分聚集在环莫斯科、和圣彼得堡地区。莫斯科州和莫斯科市,占战争爆前发俄罗斯经济总量的20%以上,加上圣彼得堡地区,占到了俄罗斯经济量的3成以上,打击这些地方的经济设施、能源电力基础设施,能给普京制造极大困扰。如果欧盟能为乌克兰提供这种程度的帮助,会让乌克兰的处境有极大好转。

当然这会让欧盟自己有卷入战争的风险,同时乌克兰也会招致普京更严厉的空袭报复,到时欧盟就需要为乌克兰提供更强大的防空保护,这都是让欧盟在援助乌克兰问题上束手束脚的原因。另外欧盟对俄罗斯的能源还有一定程度的依赖,2024年俄罗斯对欧盟出口了多少原油数据我今天没有查到,但2023年俄罗斯对欧盟每天还有130万桶的原油出口。

欧盟受到了刺激,愿意给乌克兰提供更多军援是好事,但从仔细分析军援的内容,还是不足以使乌克兰取得优势的。

如果欧盟有紧急行动,完全停止从俄罗斯进口石油和天然气,那这是欧盟要动真格,要大举援乌抗毛的前兆,可是目前这还没有。

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第三篇:历史的参照:从丘吉尔谈俄乌战争……

(转自推特)文昭談古論今@wenzhaocomment

https://x.com/wenzhaocomment/status/1892269464256679975

 

对于当下的时机在历史上的参照,与其说像1938年、不如说像1917年。邱吉尔对1938年和对1917年的态度截然相反。他反对与希特勒的妥协,主张与希特勒死磕到底,哪怕是在德军横拍西欧的时候也不退缩。但是对一战却主张适止而止,达成妥协的和平。为什么呢?因为一战和二战、在邱吉尔眼中是两场不同性质的战争。二战是一场意识形态为基础的战争,纳粹德国和意大利是法西斯主义填满每个脑细胞的政权,军事征服是表面,目的是要彻底改变人们的生活方式,改变千百年的来底层规则。而一战,则是老欧洲君主国之间,因为势力范围、和国家安全引发的战争。

所以老邱吉尔对于美国在这两场战争的态度也截然不同,二战中他千方百计地劝说美国参与,然而对一次大战美国的参战却不以为然,他认为美国这把「重剑」,当举在头上的时候,比落下来更有力量。1917年初的时候,德奥同盟国集团、和英法俄协约国集团都到了精疲力尽的时候。

1916年西线有两场战役重叠进行,凡尔登战役从19162月打到年底,是德国发起的。索姆河战役从19167月打到11月,是英法发起的,半斤八两,双方都损失惨重。东线俄罗斯也被战争拖到了爆发革命的边缘。这个时候美国参战,对于英、法来讲当然求之不得,这不仅是一个帮助,而是一个确保的胜利。但是美国不参战,去斡旋双方谈判,则可以确保达成一个妥协的和平。那样俄罗斯帝国就不致于爆发共产主义革命,就没有共产党的夺权。而德国得以体面退出战争,没有输得那么惨,也就没有希特勒后来借煽动民族复仇来上台。于是20世纪人类的两大恶魔,共产主义和纳粹皆得以避免。天下之安危操于美国的一念。但是威尔逊总统决定参战,虽然保障了协约国集团的最后胜利,邱吉尔却对此深深遗憾。其实当时英国工党领袖麦克唐纳也是同样的看法,他给威尔逊总统的重要幕僚豪斯中校(相当于总统国安顾问)写信,也认为美国积极运用中立的力量,更有利于达成长期和平,可惜历史没有走上这个方向。

邱吉尔在二战中,接受了和苏联结盟,但他的反苏反共立场一直没有变过,能暂时和斯大林结盟是因为希特勒离英国近,只隔一条海峡,而苏联暂时远。苏联和西方的冷战,也是一场基于意识形态的战争,敌人所追求的结果,和一战前老欧洲时期英国的敌人是不一样的。

俄罗斯这个国家,目前也是自由世界的挑战,但你要知道,普京是沙皇、还是列宁或斯大林。西方世界和他之间的矛盾,是民主国家和沙皇之间的矛盾、还是和列宁之间的矛盾。你就会理解邱吉尔如果在今天,是会主张和谈、还是死磕到底了。

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特朗普总统第二任期内的非全面胜利清单

 (推特T-COM)美国驻华使领馆 US MissionCN

(原文) https://x.com/USA_China_Talk/status/1891824989621326287

@USA_China_Talk·218

 

唐纳德·特朗普总统上任还不到一个月,却已经可称美国现代史上影响最重大、最积极的总统之一。以下是一份不完全清单,列出了特朗普总统第二任期开始以来取得的显著成就:

(以下是ChatTPT自动翻译)

特朗普总统第二任期内的非全面胜利清单

唐纳德·J·特朗普总统上任还不到一个月,但他已经对现代美国历史上的总统产生了最重大和积极的影响之一。

以下是特朗普总统第二任期以来取得的明确胜利的非全面清单:

总统宣布南部边境进入国家紧急状态。

非法越境人数降至数十年来的最低点,因为边境巡逻人员再次被允许执法。

在特朗普政府打击危险的非法移民行动中,非法移民开始大量回头。

美墨边境墙的建设重新启动。

对犯罪非法移民的驱逐航班增加。

总统开始将“最恶劣的”犯罪非法移民转移到关塔那摩湾,等待遣返。

美军被部署协助保卫南部边境,同时海岸警卫队向美洲湾增派力量。

所谓的“CBP One”应用程序——曾将超过一百万非法移民“假释”进入美国——被关闭。

国土安全部正在审查在拜登政府期间被允许进入美国的非法移民的假释状态。

美国移民和海关执法局以及其他机构继续在全国各城市进行有针对性的行动,以执行移民法,维护公共安全,将罪犯驱逐出我们的社区。

国土安全部恢复使用“非法移民”一词。

司法部宣布对所谓的“庇护城市”采取行动,因其妨碍美国法律。

国土安全部“追回”了由不法FEMA官员支付的数千万美元,这些资金用于将非法移民安置在纽约市的豪华酒店中。

司法部对纽约州及其民选官员提起诉讼,因其故意不遵守联邦移民法。

宣布国家能源紧急状态以释放我们的全部能源潜力,降低美国家庭的成本。

拜登政府所有扼杀就业、亲中、反美的能源法规已被撤销。

美国人现在可以在车辆、淋浴喷头、马桶、洗衣机、灯泡和洗碗机方面有更多选择,同时拜登时代限制水流和强制不合格灯泡标准的法规已被取消。

扼杀就业的绿色新骗局被终止。

美国退出了灾难性的巴黎气候协定,该协定不公平地剥削了我们的国家。

新的联邦租赁和许可用于大规模风电场,这些风电场破坏了我们的自然景观,未能服务于美国消费者,已被暂停。

阻碍阿拉斯加开发其丰富自然资源的官僚法规已被撤销。

海上钻探已开放,“钻探,宝贝,钻探。”

拜登时代的电动车强制令被终止。

能源部结束了液化天然气的暂停,并批准了自上届政府去年禁止以来的第一个LNG项目。

总统成立了国家能源主导委员会,提供关于实现能源主导地位的建议。

总统关闭了拜登时代的“气候军团”工作计划。

环境保护署取消了数千万美元的合同,这些合同原本支付给左翼倡导组织,并宣布对拜登EPA工作人员的一个计划进行调查,该计划旨在使数十亿美元免于监督和问责。

美国原油库存继续上升,自总统上任以来每周都在增加。

总统恢复了对钢铁进口的25%关税,并将铝进口的关税提高到25%,以保护这些关键的美国产业免受不公平的外国竞争——此举得到了钢铁制造商协会、铝业协会和全国各地家族企业的赞扬。

总统公布了公平互惠贸易计划,向世界明确表示,美国将不再容忍被剥削。

总统宣布了有史以来最大的人工智能基础设施项目,计划私人部门投资5000亿美元。

沙特阿拉伯宣布计划在未来四年内向美国投资6000亿美元。

在与总统会面后,Stellantis宣布将重新开放位于伊利诺伊州贝尔维迪尔的装配厂——让1500名员工重返工作岗位——并在密歇根州底特律生产下一代道奇Durango。该公司还宣布对其位于俄亥俄州托莱多和印第安纳州科科莫的工厂进行新的投资。

电子巨头三星和LG“正在考虑将其在墨西哥的工厂迁至美国。”

在总统实施关税后,墨西哥宣布部署1万名士兵到边境,以打击非法移民和芬太尼贩运,加拿大宣布了一系列措施打击芬太尼的生产和贩运。

总统提出了建立主权财富基金的宏伟计划,以最大限度地管理美国持有的超过5万亿美元的资产。

日本首相石破茂宣布,鉴于总统重新上任,日本计划将对美国的投资提升至前所未有的1万亿美元。

 

(原文) https://x.com/USA_China_Talk/status/1891824989621326287

Non-Comprehensive List of Wins in President Trump's Second Term

President Donald J. Trump hasnt even been in office for a full month, but has already had one of the most significant and positive impacts of any president in modern American history.

Here is a non-comprehensive list of unambiguous WINS since President Trump began his second term:

President Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border.

Illegal border crossings have hit lows not seen in decades as Border Patrol agents are once again allowed to enforce the law.

Illegal aliens have started turning around in droves amid the Trump Administrations crackdown on dangerous illegal immigration.

Construction resumed on the U.S./Mexico border wall.

Deportation flights of criminal illegal aliens ramped up.

President Trump began transferring the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens to Guantanamo Bay ahead of their repatriation back to their own countries.

U.S. military troops have been deployed to assist in securing the southern border, while the Coast Guard surged assets to the Gulf of America.

The so-called CBP One app which paroled more than one million illegal immigrants into the country was shut down.

The Department of Homeland Security is reviewing the parole status of illegal aliens who were allowed into the country under the Biden administration.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other agencies continue to undergo targeted operations in cities across the country to enforce immigration law, preserve public safety, and get criminals out of our communities.

The Department of Homeland Security reinstated use of the term illegal alien.

The Department of Justice announced it is taking action against so-called sanctuary cities for obstruction of U.S. law.

The Department of Homeland Security clawed back tens of millions of dollars in funds paid by rogue FEMA officials to house illegal aliens in luxury New York City hotels.

The Department of Justice filed suit against the State of New York and its elected officials over their willful failure to follow federal immigration law.

A National Energy Emergency has been declared to unlock our full energy potential and bring down costs for American families.

Every one of the Biden administrations job-killing, pro-China, anti-American energy regulations have been rescinded.

Americans have been empowered with choice in vehicles, showerheads, toilets, washing machines, light bulbs, and dishwashers, while Biden-era regulations restricting water flow and mandating inadequate lightbulb standards have been killed.

The job-killing Green New Scam was terminated.

The United States withdrew from the disastrous Paris Climate Agreement, which unfairly ripped off our country.

New federal leasing and permitting for massive wind farms, which degrade our natural landscapes and fail to serve American consumers, have been paused.

Bureaucratic regulations, which impeded Alaskas ability to develop its vast natural resources, have been reversed.

Offshore drilling has been opened to drill, baby, drill.

The Biden-era electric vehicle mandate was terminated.

The Department of Energy ended the Liquefied Natural Gas pause and approved the first LNG project since the prior administration banned them last year.

President Trump established the National Energy Dominance Council to advise on achieving energy dominance.

President Trump shut down the Biden-era Climate Corps work program.

The Environmental Protection Agency canceled tens of millions of dollars in contracts to left-wing advocacy groups and announced an investigation into a scheme by Biden EPA staffers to shield billions of dollars from oversight and accountability.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles continued to rise, which they have done every week since President Trump took office.

President Trump restored a 25% tariff on steel imports and elevated the tariff to 25% on aluminum imports to protect these critical American industries from unfair foreign competition a move praised by the Steel Manufacturers Association, the Aluminum Association, and family-owned business across the country.

President Trump unveiled a plan for fair and reciprocal trade, making clear to the world that the United States will no longer tolerate being ripped off.

President Trump announced the largest Artificial Intelligence infrastructure project in history with $500 billion in planned private sector investment.

Saudi Arabia declared its intention to invest $600 billion in the United States over the next four years.

After meeting with President Trump, Stellantis announced it will reopen its assembly plant in Belvidere, Illinois putting 1,500 employees back to work and build its next-generation Dodge Durango in Detroit, Michigan. The company also announced new investments in their Toledo, Ohio, and Kokomo, Indiana, facilities.

Electronics giants Samsung and LG are considering moving their plants in Mexico to the US.

Taiwan pledged to boost its investment in the United States amid President Trumps tariffs.

President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced new deals between the two countries on immigration, trade, energy, and artificial intelligence.

Following President Trumps imposition of tariffs, Mexico announced a deployment of 10,000 troops to the border to combat illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking and Canada announced a flurry of measures to combat fentanyl manufacturing and trafficking.

President Trump laid out a visionary plan to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to maximize the stewardship of the $5+ trillion in assets held by the United States.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his intention to elevate Japans investment in the United States to an unprecedented amount of $1 trillion now that President Trump is back in office.

President Trump brought home an American citizen wrongfully detained in Russia and another American detained in Belarus the tenth and eleventh hostages freed since he took office.

President Trump proposed a bold vision for securing lasting peace in Gaza which former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman described as brilliant, historic and the only idea I have heard in 50 years that has a chance of bringing security, peace and prosperity to this troubled region.

The Department of State declared an America First foreign policy.

The Department of State issued a pause on existing foreign aid grants to ensure accountability and efficiency.

President Trump continues to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas terrorists.

The Iran-backed Houthis were redesignated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

Colombia agreed to accept repatriation flights of deportees from the U.S. after President Trump announced urgent and decisive retaliatory measures against the country.

The State Department announced it will no longer undertake any activities that facilitate or encourage mass migration.

Belarus unilaterally released an innocent American citizen, Anastassia Nuhfer, who was taken during the Biden administration.

The Department of State ordered embassies worldwide to only fly the American flag not activist flags.

The Mexico City Policy was reinstated to ensure no taxpayer dollars support foreign organizations that perform, or actively promote, abortion in other nations.

The United States is rejoining the Geneva Consensus Declaration, which promotes and strengthens opportunities for women and girls around the world, and protects the family as the fundamental unit of society.

President Trump ordered the immediate dismissal of the Board of Visitors for the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Coast Guard following years of woke ideologies infiltrating U.S. service academies.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth restored Fort Liberty, North Carolina, to Fort Bragg, in honor of a World War II hero.

President Trump declared all foreign policy must be conducted under the Presidents direction, ensuring career diplomats reflect the foreign policy of the United States at all times.

President Trump paused enforcement of the overregulation of American business practices abroad, which negatively impacted national security.

Hamas agreed to free additional Israeli hostages after President Trump declared all hell is going to break out if the terrorist group delayed.

President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in pursuit of finally securing peace.

President Trump hosted Jordans King Abdullah II, who announced the Kingdom will accept 2,000 sick children from Gaza as quickly as possible.

President Trump proclaimed Gulf of America Day after the Department of the Interior officially changed the name on its mapping databases and Google Maps and Apple Maps both updated their apps to reflect the new name.

Secretary Pete Hegseth declared no more DEI at the Department of Defense.

Following a visit from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino agreed to withdraw from the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, a debt-trap diplomacy scheme the Chinese Communist Party uses to gain influence over developing nations.

President Trump imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court, which has illegitimately asserted jurisdiction on internal U.S. matters and baselessly targeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

President Trump banned funding to UNRWA a United Nations agency employed hundreds of Hamas and jihad operatives.

President Trump ordered a review of all non-governmental organizations, so taxpayers are no longer funding those that undermine Americas interests.

President Trump stopped the waste, fraud, and abuse happening within USAID ensuring taxpayers are no longer on the hook for funding pet projects of entrenched bureaucrats, such as sex changes in Guatemala.

President Trump commenced his plan to downsize the federal bureaucracy and eliminate waste, bloat, and insularity including an order that agencies hire no more than one employee for every four employees who leave.

President Trump secured the resignations of 75,000+ federal workers, or approximately 3.75% of the federal workforce, in an effort to eliminate inefficiency at taxpayer expense.

Discriminatory DEI offices, employees, and practices have been eliminated across the bureaucracy alongside a return to merit-based hiring.

The Federal Aviation Administration must return to merit-based hiring for all positions.

Affirmative action in federal government hiring has ended.

All federal employees have been ordered to return to the workplace.

It is now the official policy of the U.S. government that there are only two sexes.

The weaponization of the federal government against its citizens has ended.

Censorship by the government against its own citizens has ended in favor of free speech.

President Trump restored the name Mount McKinley to North Americas highest peak.

The Department of Government Efficiency was established to maximize government productivity and ensure the best use of taxpayer funds.

President Trump ended the wasteful Federal Executive Institute, which had become a training ground for bureaucrats.

The Trump Administration ordered the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau the brainchild of Elizabeth Warren, which funneled cash to left-wing advocacy groups to halt operations.

President Trump ordered the termination of all federal media contracts, so taxpayers arent on the hook for subsidizing Fake News publications.

President Trump signed an executive to end the use of paper straws.

Security clearances were stripped from the infamous 51 Spies Who Lied and other intelligence officials who misused the public trust.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a buried official assessment declaring the pandemic likely originated in a Wuhan lab.

The Department of Education announced an investigation into the Minnesota State High School League and California Interscholastic Federation for violation of federal anti-discrimination law by allowing men to compete in womens sports.

The Department of Veterans Affairs implemented a new flag policy to promote the prominence of the American flag and ensure consistency among its facilities.

Taxpayer-funded PBS closed its DEI office and Disney dropped two of its DEI programs after President Trumps executive order reining in such discriminatory practices.

Childrens Hospital in Los Angeles stopped giving puberty blockers to minors following President Trumps executive order and Chicago Lurie Childrens Hospital paused sex change surgeries for minors joining many other health systems around the country in response to President Trumps executive order ending the radical practice.

President Trump was unanimously elected as Chairman of The Kennedy Center Board of Trustees and fired a slew of the Centers board members over their obsession with perpetuating radical ideologies.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation discovered 2,400 additional records on the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, which were never provided to the board tasked with reviewing and disclosing the documents. The discovery happened due to President Trumps executive order calling for the declassification of JFK assassination documents.

President Trump instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to stop production of the penny, which costs 3.69 cents to make.

President Trump established the Make America Healthy Again Commission, which redirects the national focus to promoting health rather than simply managing disease.

President Trump ended the unfair, demeaning practice of forcing women to compete against men in sports which resulted in the NCAA changing its rules.

Attorney General Pam Bondi immediately got to work ending the weaponization that has plagued the Department of Justice in recent years rooting out politically motivated lawfare that occurred in the Biden administration, pausing funding for so-called sanctuary cities, addressing the threat of Hamas and its affiliates here and abroad, and eradicating anti-Christian bias within the federal government.

President Trump attended Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, becoming first sitting President to do so and bringing back tradition of pre-Super Bowl interviews.

President Trump received his highest ever approval rating in a CBS News poll with 70% of Americans agreeing he is keeping his promises.

President Trump has had his cabinet confirmed by the Senate at a far faster pace than his predecessors, with a majority of his cabinet earning confirmation in his first month.

 

2025年2月18日星期二

程凌虚:眼下简中圈挺川反川之争……

 (转贴)程凌虚《青山遮不住,毕竟东流去》

 

对于眼下简中圈挺川反川之争,我想起了一句名言:人做判断时,会有四种类型:事实判断、是非判断、价值判断、道德判断。这四个判断的次序不能错,但很多人恰恰相反,连基本的事实都搞不清楚,就开始搞道德判断和审判。

首先,川普和普京关于乌克兰的停战协议是私相授受。没有乌克兰和欧盟参与的停战协议,根本没有正当性和合法性。试想,二战期间,如果罗斯福撇开英国、苏联、中国等盟国去和希特勒谈停战协议,可能吗?所以,从国际法和美国宪法来讲,川普私自与普京勾兑,是违法和违宪的!

其次,你不承担义务,就不应享有权利。诚如网友所言:万斯和海格塞斯在慕尼黑表达“川普主义”的一个重要观点是:欧洲的事务应该由欧洲人来承担,美国不再当冤大头了!我赞同。美国既然不当出钱出力的“冤大头”了,就别再掺和欧洲事务。但是,“俄乌和谈”本是欧洲事务,你却大包大揽,背着乌克兰与俄罗斯密商交易,尤其过分的是始终不让欧盟参与!这是什么理?

事实上,欧洲已经醒了,既然依赖不了美国了,那就自己保卫自己,也许高福利要降一降,挪出一些费用做防务,但欧洲也终于独立自主,不用“盎格鲁-撒克逊人”来指手画脚了!而欧洲强大,也意味着乌克兰的胜利越来越近了!

第三,“联俄抗东”更是无稽之谈。也是最大的谎言。如果连俄罗斯最大金主是谁都沒搞清楚,非蠢即坏!三年打下来,现如今俄罗斯和它的金主都陷入了俄乌战争的泥潭,川普这次出手,分明是救了俄罗斯和它的金主。正常的逻辑是,给俄罗斯和它的金主最后一击!

第四,“通俄门”基本上被川普自己坐实了。在2016年美国大选辩论中,希拉里曾经直言川普曾得到普京的援助,鼓励俄国对美国的间谍活动,是普京的木偶,将会拆散北约,达成普京的愿望。这也就是当年川普的“通俄门”。川普是否通俄我不知道。但希拉里所说的,现在都已经实现。那就是Make Russia great again——让俄罗斯再次伟大!普京终于迎来救命人,又一个傻儿子,居然出现在美国。这是文明世界的悲哀!

逻辑是个好东西,但你得有。悲催的是,时至今日,简中圈的川普支持者在事实既明的情况下继续坚持其态度,且死不悔改!这只能说明他们是反宪政、反文明、反人类的一个文化存在。但是,川普想要文明世界接受他的邪恶,简直是匪夷所思!

——程凌虚

2025年2月17日星期一

日云:与朋友聊川普与俄乌困局/停战

 转自蔡慎坤的推特: https://x.com/cskun1989/status/1891143795196170663

(编者注:1. “日云”可能是“丛日云”教授;2.  这是三部分合一);3. (答)是编者添加。

 

与朋友聊川普与俄乌困局/川普关于俄乌停战的消息传来,网上反响激烈。昨天与几位朋友进行了交流,这里把这些帖子合并起来,作了一点儿加工:

朋友A:川普这样做,美国一百年来所获得的一切威望,所积累的软实力,都将化为乌有。

(答)嗯,看来老川怎么干都不对。他最稳妥的做法,是像老拜登和欧洲的一众白左那样,整天高喊不干掉普京不罢休的口号,经常往基辅跑跑与小泽混个合影,然后捆住乌克兰的手脚,不但不敢给有效的武器,还不许攻击俄本土,甚至炮弹都不时地断供,三年了,爱国者导弹都不能覆盖那几十万平方公里的国土,眼看着乌克兰人的后方一次次被轰炸。一边购买大俄的天然气给他输金,抬高石油价格让他赚美元,一边不断地向普京表忠心:美国不想打世界大战,不想打核战争,不会派一兵一卒到乌克兰。给普京吃定心丸。

因为怯懦,要战却不敢胜;又要当道德婊,不敢胜又不妥协。就这样拖着,让双方流血死人,来满足自己的道德感。这样再拖四年,皆大欢喜。据说还能维护美国主持正义的世界领袖的好名声。

记得当初拜登给小泽安排的命运是到波兰建立流亡政府,马克龙是最早提岀绥靖政策的,德国开始只肯送些头盔和防弹服。而大俄占领克里米亚时,也没见奥巴马和欧洲那些白左有什么有效的办法。可他们似乎也没受过对川普这样的漫骂。

人们应该想想,为什么普京总是选黑左白左掌权的时机下手?他不傻,知道他们都是什么货色。如果不是意外地出了个小泽,他三年前就轻易得手了。

我不知道老兄说的美国的百年威望指什么?美国在二战时与斯大林联手,冷战中与毛泽东拥抱,他们都比普京更高尚吗?美国主导的二战协议,将外蒙送到苏联怀抱,让波兰将东部领土割让给苏联,还承认了苏联对芬兰领土的占领、对东欧国家的控制。二战后,它先退出了中国大陆,接着又先后退出了朝鲜和越南战场,将其送给了北边的敌人,前不久又将阿富汗送给了塔利班,还曾一再施压让以色列以土地换和平。如果这些在老兄的心目中,都不影响美国的道德威望,为什么这次老川对俄乌冲突的妥协方案,就使这种威望“化为乌有了”呢?

朋友B:川普心中没有道义,对俄实行绥靖政策,不但出卖了乌克兰,还会祸害欧洲盟友。

(答)我不喜欢老川的一些言论。比如,对战争的爆发,拜登和乌克兰有责任。这没错,但他应该补上一句:这并不是普京发动侵略战争的充分理由。我也并不完全认同老川的方案,或许他应该让乌克兰得到更多一些。但这只是心有不足而已,不至于把他想得那样坏。我觉得,川普的方案是否明智,目前下结论还太早,但不会比拜登的更差。所以不理解他怎么会引来铺天盖地的漫骂,顺便还把“川粉”们也当成了出气筒?

在国际政治中,必须将道义原则与现实考虑结合起来,而在大国棋局的现实主义考虑中,小国利益经常成为牺牲品,一直如此,这是无可奈何的事。大国拿小国当交换筹码者常有之,小国忘恩负义背叛大国者也常有之。老美所经历的背叛可能是最多的了,常常好心不得好报啊。这就是国际政治。这就像在战争中,让你这个连去断后送死,好让整个师能逃出包围圈。在指挥员的棋盘里,丢卒保车不是常规吗?

如果这次老川能把大俄拉过来,或在大国博弈中使其保持中立,他的方案对美国来说就是成功的。或者,如果使老美从中抽身,转向亚太,让欧洲去主导俄乌战局,也算成功。不过,我对欧洲那帮废物不抱希望。那三个大国的领导人都是打嘴炮的高手,没一个中用的。国民也日益颓废,男性气概都被阉割了。这两天我看到的,他们就像被惯坏了的孩子一样,对美国不讲理地哭闹撒骄、打滚耍浑。要怨美国,就只能怨美国宠了他们上百年,让他们如此地不争气、没出息。

有人将川普的方案与二战前英法的绥靖政策相比。历史真是误导人,半瓶子醋的历史更是害死人。今天大俄的实力没法与当年希特勒比,一个欧洲最穷也最腐败的乌克兰都能顶住他,它的GDP仅相当于欧盟的十几分之一。何况,我也不相信普大帝有希特勒的野心。

有人想像,“布达佩斯备忘录”使美国背上了一种类似对北约的那种责任,其实这是误解。那是个备忘录而非条约,且里面根本没有对美英规定强制性保护乌克兰的义务。它规定的是,如果乌克兰遭到侵略,要由联合国安理会采取行动。当侵略者是俄罗斯的时候,这一条就没意义了。

朋友C:川普是商人的狭隘目光,只算计眼前利益,放弃了国际义务,也就失去了国际事务上的道义权威。如果他趁这个机会,把俄罗斯彻底打垮,不但除一大害,还树立起美国的道义权威。相反,他树立了一个坏的先例,从此国际上没有原则,没有道义,只有强权。他鼓励了侵略行为,鼓励了核讹诈。美国的形象也垮了。

(答)国内那些一味喊打的人,基本上属于浪漫的小资一类,或少不更事的女青年。他们感情充沛但心智还没成熟到有资格谈论国际政治。他们很容易入戏,悲剧主角能让他们哭得一塌糊涂,坏人演得好也能让他们向舞台扔石头。

他们是白左的理想观众,白左那套表演就是为他们量身订作的,因为他们分不清表演和现实。白左们喊几句口号,也能让他们高潮叠起。

他们不懂得国际政治另有一套逻辑,不是他那种简单的思维和道德判断能够应付的。他们不考虑战争继续下去要付出多大代价?要冒多大风险?他们对每天死亡数千人的战争的残酷性没有感觉,却还能以国际道德裁判自居,认为继续打下去才是道德的。他们是一不出钱,二不流血的看客,凭什么要别人顶住呢?美国人是在三年中拿了真金白银的,要真想彻底摧毁大俄,他们还得冒亲自上战场的风险,送自己的孩子上战场的风险,冒核战的风险。别听老欧洲那些白左怎么高调宣誓,真正开打还得美国的子弟兵流血。

川普的主张在竞选时就亮出来了。他的当选,意味着他的政策也得到了美国多数人的认可,你凭什么要逼人家怎样怎样做?你一个看客,在人家面前有什么道德优越感?

退一万步说,如果美国完全放弃了国际警察的责任,只管自己了,只要它不作恶,你也没权利骂人家。你又凭什么要求人家服务于你的利益和偏好呢?如今美国背着36万亿的沉重债务,每年利息都要一万多亿,遍地非法移民,国民素质在下降,教育水平和健康水平都在下降,连最拿手的飞机都连连出事。真是金玉其外,败絮其中啊。显然东家的日了也不好过了,新上任的少东家很爱家,也比较会过日子,不像前任那样的败家子。他表示,我们得顾一下自己了,别揽那些闲事了,不再当冤大头了,这就成了没道德了?美国能保住自己,难道不是最大的国际利益吗?

刚才看一位朋友的贴,我把它发挥一下,大意是说:你要干掉大俄好啊,你捐款啊,你当志愿军啊,或者动员你儿子去当志愿军啊?还有,你就身在“策应”大俄的国度啊?说来你也有道德责任啊,想想乌克兰人会怎么想你吧,你干了什么了?表现一下啊?别像老欧洲那些白左,光打嘴炮,当道德婊,让别人奉献和勇敢牺牲!

朋友D:川普对普京有一种莫名其妙的亲近感,这让我都要相信他与普京间有什么见不得人的交易了。同时又不再乎疏远和伤害传统的盟友。他这次的俄乌方案,又背叛了欧洲盟友,极不负责任。

(答)这事如果往深里说,我希望大俄被教训,受惩罚,但从长远来说,我不希望大俄被打残。它虽然基本上是个专制国家,还保留着帝国时代的侵略性,但它属于欧洲基督教文明的一部分,更重要的是,它没有被后现代进步主义所污染和败坏。是个可以改邪归正的健康的坏小子。不像老欧洲,不可救药地从内里败坏了。

我说过,有一天,法兰西斯坦和英吉利斯坦的人们,特别是女人们,也许会发现俄罗斯是他们的避难所。许多人不懂,文明的冲突,比眼前的政治冲突和利益冲突更根本。专制可以一夜之间转为民主,但野蛮百年也难成文明。利益上的敌人随时可以敌友易位,而文明的敌人千年依旧。

显然,这也是欧美保守派的考虑之一。在文明冲突和文化战争中,欧洲的白左是他们的敌人,而俄罗斯民族是他们的盟友。毕竟,在俄罗斯,男人还是真男人,女人还是真女人。他们的帅哥美女都是货真价实,不会将一个变性的胖黑女当成时装模特。他们也没有鼓励吸毒、乱性,把变性人当宠儿,将国旗与彩虹旗并列,也不会刻意解体家庭,把爹妈改称为“双亲”。他们不会封某个种族为“命贵”一族,享受特权,也不会宽容到将伊沙里亚法引进国内,逼得自己的女人戴上头巾。他们不会在文化上自虐自残自杀,将莎士比亚和华盛顿都当成坏蛋。一边让自己的民族断子绝孙,一边打开国门,把国家让给外人。大教堂可以挂星月旗,星条旗却必须保持谦卑任人羞辱,“白人去死”可以有言论自由,而在网上对这种事发个牢骚,就得坐牢。

老欧洲在沦陷,沦陷的欧洲与俄罗斯的统治哪个更好,恐怕美国的保守派有自己的想法。美国的白左也在拉着美国下沉,所以保守派要在世界范围内寻找盟友对抗堕落的后现代进步主义,彼此相互支持。

也许有一天,人们想见见曾经创造了辉煌文明的欧洲人是什么样子的,得去俄罗斯和东欧了。那是基督教欧洲文明的保留地。

所以,当今的世界格局,需要从用两条轴线来划分。一条是传统的意识形态、制度模式和国家利益,另一条是价值观和文明属性。保守派维护西方现代文明的价值观,而左派拥抱后现代进步主义价值观,他们又与前现代不开化的和野蛮的势力结盟。随着后一条轴线的出现,并越来越清晰,使前一条轴线不再是唯一标准,也变得没有那么重要了。

从文明冲突的战略考虑问题,从维护欧洲基督教现代文明的目标出发,欧美的保守派对大俄没有白左那样痛恨。白左之所以格外痛恨大俄,不但因为其专制和侵略,还叠加了一层,即它在文化上属于保守派阵营,常与欧美的保守派相呼应,共同捍卫欧洲基督教的传统价值观。同样,这也是欧美的保守派对俄的态度的根据。他们对大俄既爱又恨,把它当成一时学坏的兄弟,不想下狠手彻底毁了它。

从国际政治大战略的角度,还想再给他一个机会,看能不能化敌为友,或至少是三国演义,而不是他们哥俩儿好,联手与我为敌。从捍卫西方文明的长远战略考虑,大俄是潜在的盟友,而欧洲白左却是潜在的敌人,他们和那些野蛮人是一伙的。万斯前些天讲过,英国会成为一个拥有核弹的穆斯林国家,这前景并非虚构。而俄国,是拥有核弹的基督教国家。

国内很少有人对欧美内部的文明冲突有清醒的认识。他们除了自由民主外,不知道还有更重要更根本更基础性的东西,对自由民主也只知道一些口号和皮毛。保守主义的智慧,对他们的理解力来说,高不可及。

朋友E:大俄只认实力,必须彻底打败他才能带来和平。所以,川普的让步不会成功,最后会被普京当猴耍,身败名裂。

(答)战争初起时,我曾在一篇文章中谈到,俄乌战争爆发本身,就是欧美的一次失败。它将一个国土辽阔、资源丰富的核大国难以挽回地推向敌对一方。老川当年的联俄战略被左派彻底搅黃了。如今战争陷入死局,我不知道如果不是老川,拜登或那个哈里斯上来,会怎么收拾他们俩留下的烂摊子?前三年他们的德行,人们都看到了,不仅没能制止战争爆发,还把它打成了烂尾。现在老川来收拾残局,也许是唯一的机会。老川换一个思路,也许有机会破局,也许不会成功。那些要求彻底解决问题的人一定会失望的,他们忘记了第一朵蘑菇云升起时人们认定的一条常识:核大国之间战争没有赢家。现在只是开始谈判,也许根本谈不成,像当初跟三胖那次。或许像加沙问题一样,谈成了,又破裂了,还得打。看客们不能拿你天真的理想去评判川普的计划,你也不能要求川普就一定得创造奇迹。你应该将他的计划与拜登的做法做一个比较,再想想你那想法现实不?

2025215日晨(日雲)