tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33440257561812516622024-03-27T17:35:23.528+11:00转帖转敏感文章,贴时代印记——转发不等于认同,只认为值得一读文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.comBlogger386125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-8118356516940483212024-03-18T11:42:00.003+11:002024-03-18T11:57:56.432+11:00老蛮:从财政支出数据,看中国政府的治国逻辑<p> </p><div class="authorinfo clearfix S_txt2" style="background-color: white; color: grey; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="W_fl" style="float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="author1 W_autocut" style="display: inline-block; max-width: 180px; overflow-wrap: normal; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; text-wrap: nowrap; vertical-align: top;"><img alt="" class="W_face_radius" src="https://tvax4.sinaimg.cn/crop.0.0.1080.1080.50/c31ec4ffly8hj0pqvvrb2j20u00u0jvs.jpg?KID=imgbed,tva&Expires=1710733040&ssig=BRT4fuGaO0" style="border-radius: 50%; 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border-color: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-image: initial; border-left-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 0px 0px 1px; font: inherit; margin: 0px 10px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 0px;"></span><span bjtimestamp="1710388060" class="time" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;">03-14 13:47</span> <span class="W_vline S_line1" style="border-bottom-style: initial; border-color: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-image: initial; border-left-style: solid; border-right-style: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 0px 0px 1px; font: inherit; margin: 0px 10px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 0px;"></span><span class="del" style="display: inline-block; position: relative; vertical-align: top;"><a style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); border: 0px; color: #eb7350; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" suda-uatrack="key=tblog_headline_article&value=headline_pc_trend_report_click">投诉</a></span></div><div class="W_fr" style="float: right; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span class="num" style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top;">阅读数:14万+</span></div></div><a href="https://m.weibo.cn/c/wbox?id=wqh75bb2ni&appName=%E6%96%87%E7%AB%A0%E4%B8%93%E6%A0%8F&appIcon=&topNavMode=0&cid=4572455201168227&click_from=article" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #eb7350; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank"><div class="specolumn_tit clearfix" style="background: rgb(242, 242, 245); color: grey; font-size: 14px; height: 34px; line-height: 34px; margin: -20px 0px 40px; padding: 0px 10px;"><div class="W_fl" style="float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">来自专栏:<span class="S_link1 W_autocut" style="color: #eb7350; display: inline-block; max-width: 80%; overflow-wrap: normal; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; text-wrap: nowrap; vertical-align: top;">中国经济</span></div><div class="W_fr S_txt2" style="float: right; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">共14篇<span class="W_ficon ficon_arrow_right" face="wbficonregular !important" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; display: inline-block; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: -1px;">a</span></div></div></a><span face="Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12px;"></span><div class="WB_editor_iframe_new" node-type="contentBody" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px 0px 40px; opacity: 1; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 700px; word-break: break-all; zoom: 1;"><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">看了前面那集《苛税猛如虎》的观众们,毫无疑问都明白了这一条:中国政府,是全世界最有钱的政府,它可以从全社会的总财富中抽走近五成的资金。注意,是净现金,然后大手大脚的花出去,没有丝毫的顾虑。现在,我们需要追问下一个问题:财政的钱,都花到哪里去了?好吧,财政支出主要是分两个方向:公共预算支出,以及政府性基金支出。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">我们现在先来看政府性基金支出,直接给结论,这一块的支出严重不透明。现在财政部关于2023年的全国财政结算报告还没有出来,那就看2022年的结算报告中的“全国政府性基金支出表”吧。2022年全国政府性基金总支出规模为11.06万亿,结算表里有24项支出内容,看起来好像内容挺丰富的。但是,请注意这个但是,结算表里面有这样两项,“土地出让金收入安排的支出”6.29万亿,其它支出3.54万亿,这两项合起来9.83万亿,占总支出规模的88.9%。</p><figure class="image" style="border: 0px; caret-color: transparent; clear: both; cursor: move; display: table; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><img src="https://wx3.sinaimg.cn/large/c31ec4ffgy1hnqdkb92stj20br0bmab1.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; display: block; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></figure><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">你想要进一步追问土地出让金收入安排的支出到底是什么支出,不好意思,没有进一步细化的表格了。至于其它支出,那就更没谱了,中国政府从来都不会告诉你其它到底是哪些其它。也就是说,政府性基金支出之中有高达九成的支出,合起来近10万亿的钱,你只有资格看到数字,但是你根本不知道这个钱花到哪里去了。现在,各位必须建立起这个基本概念,在政府性基金支出之中有约10万亿的钱你不配知道花到哪里去了,这笔钱是给公务员发了奖金、给政府临时工发了工资,还是给老百姓捅了三年喉咙,或者是拿去补贴了军费,对于这些问题普通的中国人,根本就不得而知。我这里不厌其烦的再强调一次:<span style="color: red;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">约十万亿的财政资金支出没有任何具体去向</span></span>。不要说老百姓,即便是普通政府官员对此也是毫不知情,而这就是引起国外长期诟病的原因之一。欧美各国总是指责中国穷兵黩武,军事支出太高,而中国的反驳也总显得非常的苍白无力。关于政府性基金支出,就说到这里。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">另外一个财政支出大项就是“公共预算支出”。它的内容相对而言,还算是公开,公共预算支出的有25个分项数据,可以分成四个大类:民生类支出、国家机器的维持支出、基建及重点行业扶持支出、政府债付息等支出。下面我将会列出从2011年到2022年这四大类全部25个分项的支出数据。不过在此之前,各位需要先建立一个用于比较的基准增幅,2011年全国公共预算支出10.92万亿,到2022年增长到26.06万亿,增幅为1.38倍。记住这个1.38倍,后面我将会使用这个数据作为基准来比较各分项支出的增幅。越低于1.38倍,说明这个支出分项越不受国家重视;而越高于1.38倍,就说明这个支出分项受国家的重视度越高。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">现在是第一大类,民生类支出,它包含四个分项,按照支出规模的大小排序分别是教育、卫生健康与计生、社会保障与就业以及第四项的住房保障。教育是民生类支出中的第一大项,当然也是公共预算支出的25个分项中的第一大项。</p><figure class="image image_resized" style="border: 0px; caret-color: transparent; clear: both; cursor: move; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 578.198px;"><img src="https://wx2.sinaimg.cn/large/c31ec4ffgy1hnqdkbgoeaj20lg04w75d.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; display: block; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 578.198px;" /></figure><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">2022年教育支出为3.94万亿,较2011年的1.65万亿,增幅为1.39倍,基本等同于基准。也就是说,在国家编制财政预算的时候,其实就是严格按照财政收入增长的幅度来确定每年教育支出的规模。第二分项为卫生建设与计生,它这12年来的增幅为2.5倍,大大的超过了基准的1.38倍。这里的原因很容易理解,两个原因,一方面人口老年化越来越严重,医疗体系承受的压力越来越大,需要财政给予的补贴越来越多。另一方面就是2020到2022年的三年封控清零,卫生方面的支出大增。这里我顺带说一下,中国一直没有放弃计划生育工作,并且这玩意依然是中国的国策之一。2022年财政上的计划生育开支为610亿,略低于2011年的694亿。这个钱不多不少,反正还维持着这一笔开支,公务员系统里也还养着这么一帮人。第三分项为社会保障与就业,注意这一项数据里其实还包含了财政对离退休公务人员的补贴以及对于退役转业军人的补贴。这两种支出其实属于国家机器的维持费用,因此我剔除了出来,放到了后面再进行说明。社会保障与就业支出规模12年来的增幅为1.69倍,略高于基准的1.38倍。这也是两个原因,人口老年化的压力,社会上的退休老人越来越多;以及经济形势不好,失业情况越来越严重。不过中国的养老福利体系以及失业福利体系,嗯,可以说基本上都没能构成体系,普通老百姓的福利待遇极低,所以这方面支出的压力虽然大,但增幅也有限,仅仅只是略高于基准而已。后面我讲到财政对离退休公务人员的补贴数据的时候,各位可以重点留意一下,看看那个12年增幅有多少。第四项住房保障支出可以说是惨不忍睹,本身绝对值就很低,2022年只有7499亿,与上面那些两三万亿级别的支出比起来小得可怜。并且,它12年来的增幅只有0.96倍,大幅低于基准的1.38倍。地方政府基本上全都要靠卖地挣钱来维持财政平衡,对于住房保障,并没有什么兴趣,当然也不愿意掏这笔钱。很有趣是吧?政府的那些小心思,在大数据面前根本就无所遁形。第一大类说完,各位可以建立起一个中国政府在花钱上的基本印象了:<span style="color: red;"><span style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-weight: 700; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">对教育的重视程度算是不过不失;因为人口老年化的影响,在卫生健康和社保上的支出猛烈增长;因为经济下行、失业率上升的影响,在社保和就业领域上的支出也被迫有所增长;因为要卖地,所以住房保障领域的支出增长极低。</span></span>这里所体现的事实上就是财政的价值观,接下来我们要进一步深入的检验这种价值观,并深刻的理解中国政府的治国逻辑。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">现在开始说第二大类:国家机器的维持支出,也就是权力机关要保持运行所必须的支出。这里面包含了8个支出项目,我现在按照支出规模大小逐一进行说明。一般公共服务支出也就是权力机关进行日常办公、对外履行检查、审批职能所需要的支出,这是维持国家机器最重要的内容,所以在八个项目里它排在了第一位。不过有意思的是,一般公共服务这12年来的增幅不高,只有0.9倍,大幅低于基准的1.38倍。尤其是新冠封控三年,一般公共服务支出就维持在两万亿的规模,没有了增长。不过政府官员当然不可能委屈了自己,真的让自己过苦日子,出门没有公务车,夏天办公区连空调都开不起,对于大权在握的中国各级政府官员来说都是不可能忍受的。前面那个失踪了的10万亿里面,当然有很大一部分就拿来补贴一般公共服务支出了。</p><figure class="image image_resized" style="border: 0px; caret-color: transparent; clear: both; cursor: move; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 531.365px;"><img src="https://wx1.sinaimg.cn/large/c31ec4ffgy1hnqdkbrembj20jq07w0uf.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; display: block; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 531.365px;" /></figure><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">并且,下面要说的第二项支出,城乡社区支出,本身就是拿来补贴基层政府的行政办公支出的。城乡社区支出这12年来的增幅为1.55倍,高于基准的1.38倍。这还是因为近三年的新冠封控期,城乡社区支出被限制在了1.9万亿的规模上,禁止它再大幅增长。事实上,我们往前看一下的话就会发现,从2015年开始城乡社区支出的规模就超过了一般公共服务支出。到2019年城乡社区支出达到了惊人的2.49万亿,远远超出当年度一般公共服务支出的2.03万亿。城乡社区支出,对广大的老百姓来说当然是一个相对陌生的名词,所以这里我需要给出更细的二级支出科目表。2022年,城乡社区支出中,城乡公共设施建设花了7611亿,城乡环境卫生也就是聘请环卫工人并进行垃圾处理花了2430亿。这两项算是直接向老百姓提供的公共服务了,合起来1万亿,约占全部城乡社区的一半出头。其它各项全都是管理费用,也就是全都花在了公务人员自己身上。最糟心的是,它有两项“其它”管理费支出,也就是我画了红线的部分,分别是1771亿和5136亿,合起来高达6907亿,占比高达35.6%。单看这种表格数据你根本就不知道它具体花到了什么地方,一个“其它”就把全国的老百姓给打发了。当然,我个人非常熟悉财政的这一套,知道这里的“其它支出”,其实就是给公务人员发奖金发津贴发补助的支出。但是这么藏着掖着,生怕全国的老百姓知道公务人员的待遇增幅远远超过了基准增幅,也是很没有意思的事。第三项国防支出,12年来的增幅1.45倍,仅仅只是略高于基准的1.38倍。当然了,前面那个隐秘的十万亿里,有多少钱是补贴军费的,我们从来都不知情,这里也不进行评价。第四项,公共安全支出,也就是武警、公安、检察、监狱系统以及消防和灾情处理等方面的支出。2019年后,因为管理架构的调整,消防和灾情处理等支出项目放到了第七项“应急管理”这个科目,把这两项合起来进行同口径对比的话,2022年一共花了1.67万亿,相对2011年的增幅为1.64倍,高于基准的1.38倍。这一块是政府进行强力管控的拳头,必须要重点投入,高于基准也是理所应当。第五项,呵呵,就是万众瞩目的“行政事业单位养老补贴”了。这个项目的增速非常惊人,12年来的增幅高达3.87倍,让其它所有支出项目都望尘莫及。老干部的人数越来也多,待遇要求也是越来越高。常年包着温泉宾馆和高级病房,没事就需要疗养,这都需要花钱,像流水一样的花钱。所以2011年这方面的支出还只有2738亿,到2022年已经暴增到了13330亿。按这样的趋势,在2024年对离退休干部的养老补贴支出,就会超出账面上的国防支出,也就是超出军费了。对这件事的荒谬性,我一直无法评价。一边是普通农民连病都不敢病,就算确诊了癌症也是回家自欺欺人的喝着中药等死。另一边是离退休干部的养老补贴即将超过军费开支。这种事情的背后当然就是治国的逻辑:唯有权力机关的内部人才是自己人,才需要好好照顾,至于广大的老百姓,就让他们自生自灭好了。第六项,军队抚恤及退役安置,12年来的增幅达到2.75倍,同样是大幅超过基准。本届政府对军队待遇的大幅提升,确实是下了大力气的,退役军官的待遇,现在确实好了很多。连级干部退役,如果选择退役金的话,现在也能拿到十多二十万了,确实比十年以前两三万块钱就打发了要强很多。第八项,外交支出。财政结算数据里给出的数据只有四五百亿,这个数据太假了,就算是给驻扎在境外的外交官们发工资都不够。真正的外交支出数据当然是绝密,不可能让老百姓知道。所以,这一块真正的支出当然也是从前面那个隐秘的10万亿里拿出来的。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">总结起来,第二大类国家机器的维持支出,它的特点就是透明度极差,有太多藏着掖着的支出项目。不过我们可以清晰看出一个整体原则:权力机关,无论是一般行政机关还是强力执法机关包括军队在内,待遇都在大幅上升,即便已经喊了四年的权力机关带头过紧日子的口号,财政上也在想尽办法,努力提升自己人的待遇,再差也不会比普通老百姓差。当然了,这里我需要重点说明的是教育和医疗领域,虽然公立学校和公办议员的老师和医生勉强也算是一种事业编制,但是在财政角度上看他们并不属于国家机器的组成部分,也并不是“自己人”。因此他们的待遇来源是第一大类的民生类支出,而不是第二大类的国家机器的维持支出。所以,老师和医生的收入在2023年普遍出现了大幅下降,这也是符合前面一直总结的治国逻辑的。好吧,现在我们已经讲了两大类支出。民生类的支出,迫于人口老年化和失业率上升的双重压力增幅略高于基准;国家机器的维持支出,自己人当然不会亏待自己人,增幅也是大幅高于基准。两个大类都超过了基准,那么就一定有一个大类显著低于基准的。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">接下来要讲述的是第三大类的支出,基建及重点行业扶持支出,就是这个惨淡的类别了。基建及重点行业扶持支出,按支出规模的大小有10项支出。这里我就不一一讲述了。这十项里面,只有科学技术和金融这两项支出的增幅超过了基准的1.38倍。科技支出12年来的支出增幅为1.62倍,这显示出政府对于在科技上追赶欧美,其实勉勉强强,也还算是重视。不过也没有特别重视,还远远达不到对离退休干部养老问题的重视程度。金融支出12年来的支出增幅为1.47倍,不过它的绝对值很低,一年也就是一千来亿,在这十项里绝对值排名倒数第一。而且在2019年达到1615亿的峰值之后就丧失了增长性,考虑到2023年底的中央金融会议顶层对中国长期执行的金融政策持完全否定的态度,这意味着金融支出增长的趋势已经被完全打断,此后必将会陷入长期萎缩。</p><figure class="image image_resized" style="border: 0px; caret-color: transparent; clear: both; cursor: move; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 541.938px;"><img src="https://wx3.sinaimg.cn/large/c31ec4ffgy1hnqdkbzhvtj20l409qacj.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; display: block; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 541.938px;" /></figure><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">铁路公路和基础设施这三大建设,统称为铁公基,财政上的投资增幅想象起来应该很大是吧?其实并不大,交通运输支出12年来的增幅只有0.61倍,并且在2015年之后就丧失了增长性,长期在1.2万亿左右徘徊。这显示的是这一届的政府顶层对于铁公基的投资,其实并没有兴趣,也并不愿意真金白银的掏钱出来投入。所以,2015年之后中国在基建方面的投资增长,其实靠的不是财政资金,而是地方政府通过各种平台企业疯狂借债,这也是地方政府的非标债务在近年来暴涨到失控的原因。这么说吧,整个第三类支出,基建及重点行业扶持本质都是财政直接推动经济发展,对于这件事政府的兴趣是持续下降的,并且这种下降已经肉眼可见,现在恨不得已经达到了极其厌恶的程度。要维持全国14亿人的民生已经让财政焦头烂额,与此同时,权力机关的运行还要耗费越来越多的财政资金,就这两个大类已经耗尽了财政的精力,至于推动经济发展这种事,相比较起来简直就是鸡毛蒜皮,财政根本就不可能有任何的兴趣,这就是现在治国的逻辑。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">最后简单说一下第四大类的支出,债务付息及其它支出。前面说了,顶层越来越厌恶使用财政资金来推动基建,那么地方政府就只能去借债,政府债务规模因此膨胀得越来越狠。</p><figure class="image image_resized" style="border: 0px; caret-color: transparent; clear: both; cursor: move; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 582.188px;"><img src="https://wx1.sinaimg.cn/large/c31ec4ffgy1hnqdkc5mkdj20l604c3zc.jpg" style="border: 0px; cursor: default; display: block; font: inherit; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 100%; min-width: 50px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 582.188px;" /></figure><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">对于这些债务,本金部分当然都是靠借新债来还旧债,财政肯定还不起本金,至于利息部分财政完全承担也不可能,只能勉强承担其中一部分,这就是财政上的债务付息支出。债务付息支出12年来的增幅达到了3.76倍,2022年的绝对值已经达到了1.13万亿,2023年的初算值是1.18万亿,在2024年就一定可以达到1.3万亿的级别,完全超过交通运输支出了。呵呵,这也是一件很有趣的事了:财政上厌恶基建类支出,于是逼着地方政府去疯狂借债,结果现在连债务利息都超过交通运输支出了。这个世界,任何事情都有代价,没有凭空而来的投资,当然更没有不用偿还的债务。代价,是一定要付的,不是在今天,就在明天。其它支出这一项的绝对值不高,并且多年来一直持续减少,这一项我也不知道具体是啥玩意,就不讲它了。援助其它地区的支出当然也不止结算表里的这四百来亿人民币的规模,这里随便看看就好了。</p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p><p style="border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">行吧,在本视频的最后,我当然要给出中国政府治国逻辑的总结:第一,它将资源毫不犹豫的倾斜给了权力机关内部的自己人,这是治国的最高逻辑。所有其它的事项都没有维护自己人的福利来得重要;第二,对于民生,属于相对次要的事务,可以做出姿态,勉力维持,维持不下去也就算了。第三,对于推动经济发展,顶层事实上日益厌恶,并导致地方债务完全失控。各位唯有理解了这一套逻辑才能真正理解中国经济根本就没有了内在的推动力。而接下来中国将要面对的是一种什么样的黑暗局面,各位其实也可以想象一下了。呵呵,呵呵,呵呵呵呵。</p><div class="DCI_v2 clearfix" style="margin: 6px 0px 30px; padding: 0px; text-align: right;"></div></div><div action-data="[]" id="vplus_payread" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></div><div action-data="{"version":"c404c457ae63990d","token":"","vuid":3273573631,"login":false}" id="vplus_shareread_layer" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">发布于 湖北<br /><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">转自: https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309405011793134354531</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br /></div>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-22861361830861153332024-03-12T06:59:00.006+11:002024-03-12T06:59:36.824+11:00李南央炮轰法轮功《人们啊,需要警醒》!<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">X-com</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">)陶瑞</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> TaoRay @realTaoRay</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">李锐之女李南央炮轰法轮功,发文《人们啊,需要警醒》!昨晚我突然收到好友南央的邮件:“陶瑞,请你帮个忙。刚才接到一位读者来信,让我听萧铭。说他听后感到很震惊。我回复他,他大概没有认真看我的文章,我对他会震惊也感到很难理解。附上文章,请帮我放到你的</span><span lang="EN-US">X</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上。说明是我请你转,这样法轮功不会找你麻烦。”</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">南央姐是我的好朋友,亦师亦友,是我最敬佩的人之一,她勇敢、正直,这个忙我必须帮!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人们啊,需要警惕——李南央</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">父亲李锐在他的“口述往事”中说:“中国不熟悉欧美的西方文明,在英语中个人崇拜(</span><span lang="EN-US">personal cult</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)同‘邪教’是一个词。”他不止一次地对我说:宗教信奉的是神,邪教信奉的是人,所以共产党是邪教。父亲以为我和他对于共产党的态度是根本不同的,他是救党派,而我对共产党是彻底否定的。但是父亲对共产党是“邪教”的定论,我深以为然:一切将活人奉为神的组织,都是邪教。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我为什么要在这期“跟进”中忆及父亲关于“邪教”的说法呢?因为这个月,一些活跃在海外的中文自媒体突然齐刷刷地站出来,用各种数字和现象,分析、证明法轮功的李洪志大师在《大纪元》报上的说法“中国三年疫情死了四亿人”是可信的;如果你无论如何也无法相信“四亿”这个数据,那么李洪志这位</span><span lang="EN-US">Messenger</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">你是应该绝对相信的,因为他是神,他可以洞察到普通人看不到的东西。我绝对没有想到,这么多自媒体居然都属于法轮功,众口一词地将李洪志这个大活人比为耶稣和释迦摩尼。我在给一位法轮功自媒体人的电子邮件中说:“我很好奇,不知道李洪志是否会回到中国大陆,像耶稣那样,代他的信徒受过;不知道李洪志是否会像释迦摩尼那样,同方菲、方伟、章天亮、唐靖远……围炉夜话,为听众解惑答疑。”这位受到很多人喜爱的自媒体人没有回复。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我一向对法轮功学员在大庭广众下统一服装,聚众练功所显示出的集体主义精神持警惕态度,这次众多自媒体步调一致地亮出了法轮功背景,彻底警醒了我:法轮功已然是、且是唯一可以与中共抗衡的财力雄厚,拥有强大宣传工具和众多成员的组织。很多追随者在他们的跟帖中做了明确的表达,相信李大师“天灭中共”的预言即将成为现实,“灭共”的共同目标不再可望而不可及,法轮功应该取代共产党在中国执政。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一位著名美国汉学家的遗孀在手机短信中对我说:“李洪志的‘真善忍’那个忍字,就暗藏着老百姓的血人命与牺牲。没有一个民主或开明的政党和团体会这么要求老百姓的……”她的话让我第一次想到法轮功“灭共”主张二字背后的血腥。共产党不是一个抽象的词汇,它是由有血有肉的个体组成的政党,“灭共”就意味着所有的共产党员都应该被消灭掉。法轮功自媒体天天讲、月月讲、年年讲的就是:“退党、退团、退队。若想逃脱被消灭的命运,这是唯一的选择。”我自己就曾经被法轮功的媒体人要求公开宣布退队、退团。我说,我早就超龄了,早就不是少先队员和共青团员了,何来“退”之由。我被告知:那不一样,公开宣布了退出,在共产党被消灭时,你才不会跟着一起灭亡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">国民党曾经在一九二七年四月发动过“清党运动”,逮捕和处决了大批共产党人,但是历史证明,中共并不因为它无数烈士的流血牺牲而成为正义的代表。同样,江泽民对法轮功的镇压和迫害是极为残酷的,但是法轮功也并不因此而成为中国光明前途的选择。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">我并不因为法轮功是邪教,便以为它的信徒们都是邪恶的;同是,我认为共产党是邪教,但不认为所有的共产党员都是该被灭掉的邪灵。相反,我以为无论是法轮功的信徒,还是像我父亲那样的共产党员,他们之中的很多人都是诚心真意地相信他们的教义和他们党的奋斗目标的。但是我经历过将毛泽东这个大活人像神一样崇拜的年代,我在把李洪志遵奉为神的法轮功宣传中看到的是同共产党一样的邪教特质。苏联解体后,共产党依然合法地存在,只是变成了一个不受人待见的小党,苏联的社会在转型中没有出现腥风血雨。我们需要的不是“灭共”,而是彻底抛弃共产党所崇尚的那个马克思主义和他的“无产阶级专政”的理论和实践。我在父亲去世的当日发出过一个声明,其中有这样一句话:“李锐走了,我希望随着他的离去,‘跟随旗手’、‘拥戴领军人’的文化在中国也永远地走入历史。李锐走了,我们还活着。我们只需追随自己心灵的召唤,为了个人的利益和尊严,为了自由自在地思想和表达,努力地、坚韧地做自己能够做的事情。”</span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体;">我尊崇哈耶克一生的信奉:“人类的繁荣、幸福和尊严,来自个人自由,而不是集体主义。”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人们啊,需要警惕被尊崇为“神”的活人;人们啊,需要警惕这个活着的“神”树立的无论什么样的,要求追随者共同追求的同一个目标,因为共同的目标必然引向另一个暴政。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">p.s. </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">原文章副标题《“李南央状告海关案”跟进报道(一百零二)》</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">图片源于原文插图</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转自:</span> <span lang="EN-US">https://twitter.com/realTaoRay/status/1767216507908661639<br /><br /></span><span style="background-color: #cc6611; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 19.6px;">转敏感文章,贴时代印记——转发不等于认同,只认为值得一读</span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-23979647545381416412024-03-06T22:00:00.001+11:002024-03-06T22:00:10.026+11:00沉雁:2024年我给两会捎句话<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自微信群)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年的两会</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日召开,我给大会提以下几点建议</span><span lang="EN-US">:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">废除“寻衅滋事罪”。该罪名讳背法理和法律原则,和当年的“收容审查”一样,都是没有法律依据的。执法者自由操作空间很大。已经被地方政府演变成打击报复异见人士,讨薪维权人士的工具了。此恶法不废除,冤假错案会越来越多</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,取消城管部门的执法权,城管部门的执法已经严重影响了底层人民的谋生,城管的名声早已臭满大街,都臭到国际上去了,城管正是文明城市最大的障碍。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,独生子女家庭的养老问题越来越突出,号召独生子女是政府的行为,当年的国策,“只生一个好,政府来养老”是政府的承诺,现在是兑现承诺的时候了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,失业下岗职工的退休和养老问题。国企是国家的,领导也是国家任命的,国家的决策失误,让工人成为了试验品,牺牲品,这本已很不公平了。他们把青春献给了工厂,中年失业自谋生活养家糊口,大多数都是独生子女,自己也已老了没有任何保障。这个群体的退休和养老问题是政府的责任也是当务之急。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,大病免费医疗问题。这应该是民生的重中之重,也应该是历届政府应该努力解决的头等大事,但是一直没有解决。世界上实行免费医疗和免费养老的国家,已经有</span><span lang="EN-US">190</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多个,很多国家综合国力并不如我们。就连我们长期援助的巴基斯坦都实行了,中国为什么不能给自己的国民提供“大病免费医疗”呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因病致贫,因病自杀已成为普遍现象。在“家破人亡和人亡家不破”的选择中,大部分人都选择了后者。“大病免费医疗”已经不能再拖了,这个要求并不过分。也不难解决</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人间惨剧和人间疾苦只有生活在底层的人才看得到,与会者那么多人有人真正来自底层</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他们代表不了我们凭什么决定我们的待遇和命运?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">[</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">图片</span><span lang="EN-US">]<o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-10131181266323691252024-02-16T10:20:00.002+11:002024-02-16T10:20:37.659+11:00李承鹏:站住别动!我是中国人民的感情<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">作者:李承鹏</span><span style="text-indent: 21pt;"> </span><span style="text-indent: 21pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21pt;">2024-02-15 </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《笑傲江湖》开篇,就是一个体现中国富二代传统风骨的经典桥段:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那天,青城派掌门人余沧海的儿子率手下去至福州,进到小树林里一处酒家,刚点了盘土豆丝,见女服务员身材甚好,就慨然摸了一下女子的下巴。余公子的商业逻辑和心路历程很清晰:“大爷我出了钱,摸一把,让你给爷笑一个,怎么啦”……随后就昏天黑地的厮打,随后就被武功平平的林平之反杀。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">余沧海的儿子至死没明白,人家开的饭店,不是鸡店,你付的是饭菜钱,不是包夜钱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">说起来算是旧闻了,倒跟《笑傲江湖》挺对标。前些天香港方面下了迈阿密队的单子打商业赛,付了土豆丝的钱,就想让梅西出台,让领导摸梅西的小手手。梅西赶紧两手揣兜绕开了。网上一通混天黑地厮打,打着打着,人们发现,是不是合同有猫腻……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">眼见要被反杀,主办方得转移视线哪,来,上“中国人民的感情”。在漫山遍野的傻逼用着智能手机发表逻辑千疮百孔见识止于村东头的时代,这一招好使得跟动员村里老光棍闹洞房似的,终于可以合法性骚扰了。首付了恒大的楼买了河南银行的理财产品炒了</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">的股在冰天雪地高速上封了六天七夜的老六们,可逮着充气娃娃发泄了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“梅西欠香港一个道歉”“梅西伤害了中国人民的感情”……这逻辑,估计余沧海听了也必须犯蒙,我儿花了一份炒土豆丝的钱去摸女服务员被反杀,挺丢人的,青城派就算去报复,也没脸跳出来说你伤害了格老子四川人民感情,你欠青城山九峰八十一观一个道歉。搞黑社会就搞黑社会,提什么家国情怀,你以为自己是陈近南?不,咱其实都是冯锡范。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这件事太</span><span lang="EN-US">LOW</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">了,不值一提。真正值得研究的是心理学。建议李玫瑾女士总结一个现象叫“仇恨转移”。当你反抗不了伤害你的人,就会去伤害曾伤害你的人需要你去伤害的人。别嫌这段文字绕,爱国蛊的思路就这么绕如西直门盘桥。随着智慧的网友越来越坐实主办方阴阳合同赚差价。爱国蛊退无可退,放出终极大招,鼻子一拍鲜血直流坐地下满地打滚:就算梅西不上场比赛,不让领导摸手,就不能对看台上的球迷招招手笑一笑吗?笑都不笑一个,伤害中国人民感情了。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">看,绕来绕去,还是回到“给爷笑一个”。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">理解那些花了钱没见着球王英姿的球迷的失望感,但这得去找主办方算账,跟梅西没一根土豆丝关系没有。科一个普:无论巴西还是德国,无论罗纳尔多还是贝肯鲍尔,没签比赛合同,人家连球场都不用进。梅西进了球场,当那是充话费免费赠送你的吧。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">还有个人大过年的跑来跟我吧啦吧啦半宿,聊什么他发现了一个“无形契约”,说除了商业合同外,梅西是名人,所以负有对公众的责任,即使没签约,但你是名人,就得跟爷笑一个……这些没边界感的人儿啊,球员是卖球艺的,不是卖笑的,这么层层推进,下一步得让梅西陪你上床了。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">看来巨婴们把职业球队当成文工团了,来,给陈局笑一个,来,让赵部长摸个小手手。可见某些中国男人的终极奋斗目标,还真是从傻逼苦修到当领导,然后接见文工团。所谓的爱国热情、民族情感、捍卫尊严,跟现代文明沾不着一根土豆丝,到头来总归是“来,小妞,给爷笑一个”。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一个职业球员就该是自由的,这是</span><span lang="EN-US">1848</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年英国人承继工业革命福荫定下的足球宪法,史称《剑桥规则》。那天,一头披头士发型的克鲁伊夫忽然烦了,就退出国家队。荷兰女王小心翼翼写了一封信求回归,克鲁伊夫看了一眼就扔纸篓,“老娘们你谁啊,管我踢不踢世界杯”,午夜派对去了。加缪,对,就是你常转高仿金句的那个诺奖加缪,优秀的足球运动员,率阿尔及利亚竞技队两获足球联赛冠军,肺结核痊愈了也不想踢球也不想当教练,搞写作去了,也没见球迷哭着喊着“你伤害了阿尔及利亚人民的感情”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">自由的球员才能创造那么多奇迹。咱不是转过很多遍“奴隶是建不成金字塔的”吗,要含奴量高的,出门左转,见一个公共厕所上面挂着牌子,上用金光闪闪的大粪写着俩字,“国足”……就是它了。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">开始以为中国足球上不去是体质不好,后来发现是体制不好,再后来发现是博大精深文化的骨子里那点劣根,或者三者都占齐。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">真特么是城门楼子和机枪头子的完美结合:中国足协(你顺着厕所往里走的那个单位就是)删除了与阿根廷队的合作,杭州取消了三月阿根廷来华比赛,极兔快递因力撑梅西被约谈,</span><span lang="EN-US">CCTV</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">天下足球把片头的梅西经经典进球给删了,下一步梅西的所有进球是不是也会删除。想起有次封禁一个辱华的德国球星,中国企业就把广告转给了拉姆,二货们并不知道,拉姆在我国某件不可描述的事件上有过更惊人的言论。这么看来,以后</span><span lang="EN-US">CCTV</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">天下足球,可播放的进球也不多了,除了国足。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“站住,别动,我是受伤害的中国人民感情!”</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不自由的人,永远理解不了自由的心。玩蹴鞠,永远理解不了现代足球。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《水浒传》里,高俅使了一记华丽的“鸳鸯拐”,将球儿踢得如鳔胶粘在身上一般,让宋徽宗惊讶不已,从此平步青云。据南宋王明清著《挥麈录》,高俅其实本是苏东坡的书僮,很小就被买入府中,为人机灵,眼力劲好,跟着东坡也学了一些诗词歌赋,也常为东坡誊抄一些文案。苏东坡外调做官时,舍不得放这可人儿回乡,就把他送给了好友小王都太尉王诜,王诜是神宗皇帝的妹夫,是大宋国足领队徽宗的姑父,惺惺相惜,由此铸就一段中国史。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">巨婴们这么歪看历史,苏东坡也伤害了中国人民的感情。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">说回霍启刚。其实霍公子像王思聪那样天天泡妞就挺好,只要不强摸下巴,就是国产富家公子该干的事儿。可自从被誉为“民族担当”,这口烟就上了头,霍启刚幻觉自己成了霍元甲。药劲导致他刚骂完梅西辱华刚呼吁了中国人要有尊严,“民族担当”就携全家就回老家英国过年去了。</span><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">演呲了……心疼郭晶晶三分钟,你压得住世界上所有泳池的浪花,压不住老公的脑花。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">也未必,霍启刚晓得这商业赛合同怎么回事,只是在博大精深的国家,总有一个规则,八年前我怒斥一个影视投资人:我跟你谈商业,你跟我谈江湖,我跟你谈江湖,你跟我聊政治,我跟你聊政治,你说哎,我还请你吃过饭呢……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">都是余沧海的儿子,装什么令狐冲啊,捣的都是浆糊,笑傲什么江湖。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">当年长城饭店办年会,主持人见下面坐着侯宝林,直接开喊“有请侯宝林老师来一段”。老爷子一头雾水“请我来的时候,没人跟我说要演节目啊”。主持人不依不饶“来一段,来一段”,一通起哄架秧子,逼得侯老爷子黑着脸直接走了。留下主持人在原地谴责“侯宝林不顾广大人民群众的感受,不顾大师身份,对中华传统曲艺的不尊重……”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">当年韦小宝作为钦差大臣下扬州,地方上为表尊重专门安排了扬州名家来唱曲子,那名家的演唱水平真可谓“弦索一动,宛如玉响珠跃,鹂啭燕语”。可韦小宝索然无味,直接问“你会唱十八摸吗”,这让名家惊呆在原地,崩溃了三分钟,丢了琵琶,哭天抢地跑掉了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“给爷笑一个”是传统文化瑰宝,无论是过年给长辈下跪领红包,无论是喝斥外卖小哥、调戏酒吧卖玫瑰花的小女孩,还是绑架侯宝林、梅西,内心动机是一样的。过程中免不了耍流氓,就跟孙扬似的,回来就说“他们看不起我们中国人”。就跟那款流氓手机一样,到处偷技术到处剽窃,被抓了包,就说外国人辱华,伤害了咱中国人的感情。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">问题是,你徜徉在维多利亚港(估计以后得叫红旗港)的私家游轮上,你住在温哥华五百万豪宅里,从没想起咱是一伙的,在外面惹了事,就跑回来嚷嚷那谁谁伤害了咱中国人的感情。不就是想让我们给你耍流氓埋单吗。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">长记性,所有这类故事,开头一定是在小树林里要求人家“给爷笑一个”,结尾一定是“伤害了中国人民的感情”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">作者:李承鹏(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">李哥大眼</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">)</span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-9463361389796536362024-02-04T08:06:00.005+11:002024-02-04T08:06:41.829+11:00整个鲁镇都洋溢着乐观向上的氛围<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">作者:风慢慢</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">孔乙己最后一次在鲁镇的酒店出现,是在初冬,之后他就消失了,大约的确死了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">掌柜把孔乙己还欠十九个钱的记录擦掉,他已经确定,这些钱再也收不回来了。我仍然做着温酒的无聊工作,但大多数时候是无聊地等着,因为来喝十文钱一碗酒的人也越来越少了,更别说点一碟茴香豆。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但到了年关,外出打工的人陆续回鲁镇过年,街上的人渐渐多了起来,一些人也会进来喝一碗温酒,抵御阴冷的天气。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这天下午,我正在温酒,一个有点熟悉的声音说在大柜台响起:温两碗酒,要一盘卤牛肉!说着在柜台上排出三十文钱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我一抬头,是一个身材高大的二十多岁的年轻人,他皮肤黑得有点发紫,显然是长期在太阳下工作,一张圆脸上有大大的眼睛。虽然多年没见,但我马上就把他认了出来:就是那个在一轮明月下,举着钢叉要叉猹的闰土!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我叫了一声“闰土哥”,他马上也认出我来,激动中带着欣喜:“少爷!”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">酒店里的人听到我们的对话,纷纷凑了上来:“哟,原来是闰土哥回家了啊!”“出手这么阔绰,我还以为是张杰呢!”“闰土哥在哪发财啊?”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我和闰土本来有很多话要谈,但他不得不先解答街坊们的问题。闰土哥说,他在上海送外卖,</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年赚了</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,不仅把家里的债还完了,还准备回家盖新房。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“跑外卖这么赚钱啊!过完年我也去。”“我也去!”酒店里大家叽叽喳喳地说,他们也要</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年赚</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">整个鲁镇都洋溢着乐观向上的氛围。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">后来,我们终于单独说上话。闰土对我的好奇正如我对他的好奇,他问我:“少爷,你怎么在酒店里当伙计了?”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我赶紧叫他不要叫我少爷,这让我羞愧满面。鲁镇的人都知道,我父亲是一个秀才,性格耿直,看不惯体制里整天学习一些劳什子没用的东西,没有谋上一官半职,就在鲁镇带着两个班的学生读书,也有不错的收入来源。但前几年,不知道为什么不能带学生了,收入马上就停了,而我已近成年,父亲就托了掌柜的关系让我在酒店做伙计。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“这就对了!少……”他没有把那个爷字说出来,他意识到这确实很违和。“你就应该脱下长衫。”闰土说接着说,现在时代变好了,赚钱的门路很多,比如海归硕士回家种释迦年入</span><span lang="EN-US">800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万、广西大叔种山楂年入百万、丹东大哥种草莓年入超千万、一个大哥养胡峰年入</span><span lang="EN-US">400</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多万、广西夫妇做腐竹一天收七八百……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">酒店里的人越来越多,听到闰土的讲述,纷纷兴奋起来:这些事在我们鲁镇也能做啊!大家奔走相告,仿佛一个美丽新世界的图景正徐徐展开。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">整个鲁镇都洋溢着乐观向上的氛围。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只可惜,孔乙己可能已经死了,否则也能赶上这一波创富奇迹,也许他就不说“君子固穷”这些话了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这时,赵太爷走了进来,大家更开心了,问他:“赵太爷,今天股票又亏了多少啊?”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">赵太爷睁大了眼睛,涨红了脸,大声说:“炒股人的事,能叫亏么?叫跌!”其他人一起哄笑起来答了一声“哎!”赵太爷没发现别人占他便宜,继续说:“大盘只是技术性回调,下跌只是为将来积蓄更多能量。炒股票就是赌国运,你看我们国家经济一片光明,国家正在调集多方资金来救市,现在的股市,遍地是黄金!”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">赵太爷有深厚的背景,他说出来的话能代表着赵家的态度,预示着赵家的做法。听他这么说,恐慌气息在鲁镇的股民心中一扫而光,大家表示要加仓护盘。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">再一次,整个鲁镇都洋溢着乐观向上的氛围。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我问赵太爷:“你们赵家阿</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">呢,好久没见他了?”鲁镇的人都知道,阿</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">游手好闲,骚扰尼姑,想和赵太爷攀关系,被斥责“你也配姓赵”。阿</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">时常在酒店前闲逛,厚着脸皮想要讨点东西吃,是比孔乙己还要讨厌的人。在这个寒冬,我担心他也死了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">提起啊</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,我本以为赵太爷会破口大骂,但没想到赵太爷眉开眼笑:“阿</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这孩子,我早就看出他有出息。你知道吗,我们赵家一个中央官员给他谋得一个好差事,现在国家发展经济都要靠他呢!”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“那他做什么呢?”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">赵太爷站直了身子,好像阿</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就站在他面前。赵太爷清了清嗓子才说:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“他在鸣笛。”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我听了有些迷惘,不知道鸣笛如何能发展经济。但后来我想,在世上本没有乐观向上的氛围,鸣笛的人多了,就洋溢了氛围。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下午</span><span lang="EN-US">3:34 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">·</span><span lang="EN-US"> 2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转自: </span> <span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">https://twitter.com/ferntrino/status/1753653158172402050</span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-10466574157739881502024-01-23T10:34:00.004+11:002024-01-23T10:34:42.249+11:00雷歌:我为什么支持川普?德桑蒂斯退选背书川普<p> 作者:<span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">雷歌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> 2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">21</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">日</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日傍晚,佛州州长德桑蒂斯突然宣布退出大选,转而背书川普。这大大强化了川普在党内初选对黑莉的领先优势,使川普很可能在下周二将于新罕布什尔州举行的第二场共和党内初选中复制</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日在爱荷华州的压倒性胜利,从而使共和党内初选的前景更加明朗。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">德桑蒂斯参加大选前一直是川普的盟友,坚定的共和党保守派。但共和党内的反川势力急于寻找可能替代川普的新人选,在佛州颇有政绩的德桑蒂斯被选中。在大金主的强力支持下,德桑蒂斯不想等到</span><span lang="EN-US">2028</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年再出山,于是宣布参加</span><span lang="EN-US">2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年大选与川普对垒。事后证明,这是德桑蒂斯政治生涯的一步臭棋。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然党内的反川势力一开始聚集到德桑蒂斯周围,并使他获得了超过</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元的巨额竞选资金。但不到半年德桑蒂斯就失去了竞争势头,反川势力转而开始着力捧红黑莉。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日在爱荷华举行的共和党内首场初选中,川普取得了创历史的压倒性胜利,德桑蒂斯仅以</span><span lang="EN-US">21.2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的得票率略高于黑莉的</span><span lang="EN-US">19.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">排名第二,与领先的川普</span><span lang="EN-US">51%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的得票有近</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点的差距。而在即将于下周二举行的另一场同样重要的新罕布什尔州初选中,德桑蒂斯的民调支持率仅有</span><span lang="EN-US">6%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,远远落后于川普和黑莉。这使得德桑蒂斯的大选前景十分黯淡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">德桑蒂斯原本一直声称至少会坚持到</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日的“超级星期二”。今天突然宣布退出,估计还是出于从长计议、着眼于</span><span lang="EN-US">2028</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的长远考虑。他在新罕布什尔初选前退出并转而支持川普,有利于修复与川普的关系。无论川普今年能不能再入白宫,都无法改变他是共和党内最有号召力的政治领袖这一事实。德桑蒂斯如果想在</span><span lang="EN-US">2028</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年竞争大位,没有川普的支持就先输了一半。现在他及时止损,在新州初选的关键时刻转而支持川普,帮助川普击溃反川势力推出的新网红黑莉,将有助于恢复他与川普曾有的联盟。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这对黑莉和反川势力显然不是一个好消息。不同的民调显示,川普在新罕布什尔州的支持率在</span><span lang="EN-US">50-55%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之间,黑莉在</span><span lang="EN-US">39-36%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之间,而德桑蒂斯仅有</span><span lang="EN-US">6%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。爱荷华初选川普大胜之后,排名第四的印度裔美国企业家拉马斯瓦米率先宣布退出竞选,立刻支持川普。现在德桑蒂斯也加入了川普的支持者行列,这意味着</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日在新州的第二场关键初选,川普的支持率将超过</span><span lang="EN-US">60%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,很可能达到</span><span lang="EN-US">65%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">左右,因为黑莉之外的选票将统归川普。黑莉可能落后川普</span><span lang="EN-US">20-30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点。这将是又一场压倒性胜利。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">德桑蒂斯是退选后转而支持川普的最新一员。此前,北达科他州州长伯格姆、南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员斯科特和亿万富翁拉马斯瓦米均在退选后转而支持川普。这使得这些人身后的一些重要金主也转而挺川。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而在黑莉当过州长的老家南卡罗来纳州,将于</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日举行共和党内的第三场初选。目前的民调显示,川普在南卡也是压倒性优势。黑莉如果在老家也是惨败,再选下去就只是浪费表情浪费钱财了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,目前共和党内初选的局面,很可能是在</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日的“超级星期二”之前,黑莉就会狼狈退选。尽管各路反川势力都对黑莉寄于厚望,指望奇迹出现,甚至在一些实行“开放初选”</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">任何选民都可以投票</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的州包括新罕布什尔,许多民主党人也蠢蠢欲动,要加入共和党内初选的投票以提高黑莉的支持率,但现实十分无情,黑莉依然是捧不起的刘阿斗。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">虽然拜登因为低迷的支持率及他陷入儿子的腐败案并面临国会的弹劾调查,在民主党内也有越来越多的换掉老拜登的呼声和议论。而川普则深陷</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">项刑事指控和</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">项民事官司,背负高达</span><span lang="EN-US">91</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">项罪名,三天两头要上法庭,许多州还发起了把川普从选票上除名的法律行动</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">估计难以得逞</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。但目前</span><span lang="EN-US">2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年美国大选的格局,很可能还是拜登</span><span lang="EN-US">vs</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">川普,尽管许多选民对这两个老面孔的对决已经十分厌倦。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自去年</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月以来的最新民调都显示,因为通胀、边境安全和非法移民以及以哈战争等问题,拜登的民意支持率一路下滑至</span><span lang="EN-US">37%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。而在《华尔街日报》的最新大选民调中,川普领先拜登</span><span lang="EN-US">4-6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点。哥伦比亚广播公司</span><span lang="EN-US">(CBS)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的民调发现、川普、黑莉及德桑蒂斯在与拜登的单独对决中,支持率均领先于拜登。虽然川普的支持率在共和党内部大幅领先于其他候选人,但他对拜登的优势反而最小,而黑莉在对阵拜登时表现最好</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这个民调可能也有替黑莉助攻的意思</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一些长期看我文章和节目的朋友也有一些疑惑,说像我这种在他们看来洞察时事、三观很正的人,为什么还会支持这么不着调的川普</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">借此机会,今天我正面回应一下这个问题。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年美国大选时,我还在国内,那时我对民主党希拉里比较有好感。那时我写的一些涉及美国政治的文章中,对川普大都是调侃,嘲讽他的大嘴巴和对女人的八卦。来到美国之后,对美国政治的现实有了更深切的感知和体悟,我的政治立场明显转向了共和党保守派,转而支持川普。我对川普的支持,更多地是赞同他“美国优先”的执政理念和思路,尤其是国内政策,包括小政府、减税、严控非法移民、强力反恐保护边境安全、支持传统能源的开发利用不因追求环保走极端、支持制造业从国外特别是中国向美国回归、对新冠的防疫政策等,以及在国际上要求各国支付输送承诺的军费以减轻美国的负担</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而不是像前任那样乱花美国纳税人的钱</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、坚决制裁伊朗并支持以色列、对朝鲜双管齐下,用高压大棒加胡萝卜让三胖服服帖帖、对中国发起贸易战等等。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">说实话,对他个人的言辞作派,我并不是很欣赏。但我觉得个性风格相对于执政理念是次要的。和许多人一样,我也觉得,最近两年川普在对乌克兰、对台湾和对普京、对包包的一些言论让人皱眉、令人担心。其中既有美国“孤立主义”传统和“美国优先”的理念因素,也有川普激烈反对拜登、处处与拜登对着干的情绪因素。川普的这些言论,让许多曾经的支持者反水。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但相对于民主党的祸国殃民,我觉得保守派的川普不知要比他们高多少个量级好多少倍。而许多人担心的川普一旦上台,乌克兰就会失败、台湾就会失去美国的支持,我反倒觉得不太可能。即使川普真想这么干,美国国会和美国人民也不会答应。因为支持乌克兰打败普京、围剿中共支持台湾已是美国两党的共识,美国总统并没多少一意孤行的空间。而且我觉得川普对普京、对包包的一些言论,大都是出于贬低拜登,认为拜登谁也镇不住,谁也搞不定,才让普京、包包和金三胖这些妖魔鬼怪出来搞乱了世界秩序。川普喜欢自夸不假,反拜登也有点极端,不管拜登做什么他都否定都反对。而激进的反川势力则竭力把川普妖魔化为“独裁者”、“法西斯分子”,这是一种显而易见的政治抹黑。自</span><span lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年以来,川普即使遭遇了左派媒体和反川势力前所未有的不公正对待,他依然坚守了法治底线。我不会因为激进左派渲染而把川普口无遮拦的大嘴巴毛病随意上纲上线。说实话,尽管我并不赞同川普的所有观点,但我真的很同情他并愿意支持他,以抵制激进左派对川普毫无底线的政治猎巫。如果他上台后,真的会对乌克兰和台湾不利,我也一样会反对他。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这就是我对川普的真实想法。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转发就是支持,打赏随意。欢迎关注“雷歌视角”,帮你挖掘新闻背后的新闻:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">https://www.youtube.com/
channel/UCIfm_D5GrSVn59znfs8JD1g<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">(转自微信图文)</span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-85945799706778294782024-01-20T07:44:00.003+11:002024-01-20T10:18:37.517+11:00阿根廷总统米莱在达沃斯演讲震撼全场:自由万岁!(全文)<p> <span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自电报群)</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">01-18</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“</span><span lang="EN-US">Socialism is a
violent, murderous, and impoverishing phenomenon." --JAVIER MILEI
President-elect, Argentina </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(“社会主义是一种暴力、凶残和致贫的现象。”——阿根廷当选总统哈维尔·米莱)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下午好!非常感谢。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今天,我在这里告诉你们,西方世界正处于危险之中,这种危险是因为那些本应捍卫西方价值观的人,被一种必然导致社会主义并由此带来贫穷的世界观所同化。不幸的是,近几十年间,受一些出于好意想帮助他人的人,以及一些渴望跻身特权阶层的人的驱动,西方世界的主要领导人已经放弃了自由模式,转而采用了我们所称的集体主义的不同版本。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我们在这里告诉你,集体主义实验永远不是困扰全世界人民的各种问题的解决之道;相反,它才是问题的根源。请相信我,没有人比我们阿根廷人更有资格来证明这两点。我们在</span><span lang="EN-US">1860</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年采纳自由模式时,</span><span lang="EN-US">35</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间我们成为了世界上领先的大国。而当我们在过去的</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年里拥抱集体主义时,我们目睹了我国的公民如何陷入系统性的贫穷,全球排名下降到了第</span><span lang="EN-US">140</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">位。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但在进行讨论之前,首先,重要的是,我们需要看一下数据,展示了为什么自由企业资本主义制度不仅是结束世界贫困的唯一可能的制度,而且也是唯一符合道德的能实现此目标的制度。如果我们观察经济进步的历史,可以看到,从公元</span><span lang="EN-US">0</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间,全球人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">基本保持不变。如果你看一下人类历史上经济增长的演变图,你会看到一个曲棍球棒形状的图形,在</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的时间里保持恒定,却从</span><span lang="EN-US">19</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪开始呈指数级增长。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这段停滞历史的唯一例外是在</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪末发现美洲大陆。除了这个例外,在公元零年到</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年整个时期,全球人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">停滞不前。现在,不仅是从采纳资本主义作为经济制度那一刻之后,带来了财富的爆炸性增长,而且,如果你查看数据,你会看到增长在整个时期内持续加速。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从公元</span><span lang="EN-US">0</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间,人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的年增长率始终是约</span><span lang="EN-US">0.02%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,也就是几乎没有增长。从</span><span lang="EN-US">19</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪开始,伴随着工业革命爆发,年复合增长率达到</span><span lang="EN-US">0.66%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,照这个速度,要使人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">翻倍,需要大约</span><span lang="EN-US">107</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年。现在,如果你观察</span><span lang="EN-US">1900</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US">1950</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年之间,增长率加速到每年</span><span lang="EN-US">1.66%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,意味着人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">翻倍不再需要</span><span lang="EN-US">107</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,而是</span><span lang="EN-US">66</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果你观察</span><span lang="EN-US">1950</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US">2000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年之间,你会看到增长率又提高为</span><span lang="EN-US">2.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,这意味着仅需</span><span lang="EN-US">33</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,我们就可以使全球人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">翻倍。这一趋势远未停止,迄今仍在持续发力。如果我们观察</span><span lang="EN-US">2000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年之间,增长率再次加速到每年</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,这意味着我们可以在短短</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年内使全球人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">翻倍。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">也就是说,当你观察从</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到今天的人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">时,你会看到工业革命之后,全球人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">增长了超过</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍,这意味着增长的繁荣使全球</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的人口摆脱了贫困。我们应该记住,</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年时,大约</span><span lang="EN-US">95%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的世界人口生活在极端贫困之中,而这一数字在</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年大流行疫情之前降至了</span><span lang="EN-US">5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">结论显而易见:自由贸易资本主义,作为一种经济体系,绝非产生问题的根源,而是我们结束全球饥饿、贫困,乃至极端贫困的唯一工具。上述实证证据无可置疑。因此,既然自由企业资本主义无疑在生产方面更为优越,左翼理论就转而攻击资本主义的道德问题,称其不公正。他们说资本主义是邪恶的,因为它是个人主义的,而集体主义是好的,因为集体主义是利他主义的,当然,是用别人的钱去利他。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,他们倡导社会正义。这个概念,近来在发达国家才变得时尚,而在我的国家已经在政治话语中的老调常谈了超过</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年。问题在于,社会正义既不公正,也不促进整体福祉。恰恰相反,它本质上是不公平的,因为它是暴力的。它不公正,因为国家通过税收来获取资金,而税收是强制征收的。我们中谁会说他是自愿缴税的?这意味着国家是通过强制手段来获得资金,税负越高,强制越大,自由度就越低。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那些推动社会正义的倡导者,其出发点是整个经济就像一个可以由不同人分享的馅饼,但这个馅饼的大小并非是既定的。这是伊斯雷尔·柯兹纳(</span><span lang="EN-US">Israel Kirzner</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)所说的市场发现过程中产生的财富。如果企业提供的商品或服务不受欢迎,除非它改为适应市场的需求,否则生意将会失败。如果它们制造出高质量、价格吸引人的商品,它们将会生意兴隆并生产更多商品。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,市场是一个发现过程,资本家在其中找到前进的正确路径。但如果国家在资本家成功时惩罚他们,并妨碍发现过程,他们将破坏资本家的激励,后果是他们生产将会变少,馅饼将会变小,这将对整个社会造成伤害。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">集体主义通过抑制这些发现过程,并阻碍发现的应用,最终束缚了企业家的手脚,阻止他们以更好的价格提供更好的商品和服务。那么,对于这样的经济制度——一种不仅让世界上</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的人口摆脱了极端贫困,而且以越来越快的速度持续让人们脱贫,并且在道德上更优越和公正的经济制度,学术界、国际组织、经济理论和政治界又是如何诋毁它的呢?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多亏了自由贸易资本主义,我们可以看到,世界现在正处于有史以来最好的时刻。在人类的整个历史中,从来没有比今天更繁荣的时期。对所有人都是这样。今天的世界拥有更多的自由,更加富裕,更加和平和繁荣。对于那些自由更多,拥有经济自由并尊重个人财产权的国家尤其如此。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因为拥有更多自由的国家比压制性的国家富裕</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍。自由国家中所得最少得</span><span lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的群体比压制性国家中的</span><span lang="EN-US">90%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的人口生活得更好。自由的国家贫困率是压制性国家的</span><span lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">分之一,极端贫困率是</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">分之一,自由国家的公民寿命比压制性国家的公民长</span><span lang="EN-US">25%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那么,当我们谈论自由主义时,我们指的是什么呢?让我引用阿根廷自由主义最大权威,阿尔贝托·贝内加斯·林奇(</span><span lang="EN-US">Alberto Benegas Lynch Jr.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)教授的话,他说自由主义是基于非侵犯原则,捍卫生命、自由和财产权利,对他人生活计划的不设限制的尊重。其基本机构是私有财产、不受国家干预的市场、自由竞争、劳动分工和社会合作,成功只能通过提供更高质量或更优惠价格的商品来服务他人而实现。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">换句话说,资本家、成功的商人是社会的恩人,他们绝非剥夺了他人的财富,而是为普遍的福祉做贡献。归根结底,成功的企业家是英雄,这就是我们为未来阿根廷所倡导的模式,一种基于自由主义基本原则的模式:捍卫生命、自由和财产。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在,如果说企业资本主义和经济自由已经被证明是消除世界贫困的卓越工具,而我们现在正处于人类历史上最好的时期,那么需要问的是,为什么我会说西方正处于危险之中。我之所以这么说,正是因为在这些国家中,某些政治和经济体制的部门,本应捍卫自由市场、私有财产和其他自由主义制度价值,却有的是出于理论框架上的错误,有的是出于对权力的贪婪,正在破坏自由主义的基础,为社会主义敞开大门,这可能将我们置于贫困、苦难和停滞之中。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">永远不应忘记,</span><span lang="EN-US">socialismo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不管在哪里,都始终是一个导致贫困的现象,所有尝试过</span><span lang="EN-US">socialismo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的国家都失败了。它在经济上、社会上、文化上都失败了,还导致了</span><span lang="EN-US">100 millones </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">死亡。西方今天面临的根本问题,不仅仅即使在柏林墙倒塌之后,并有了压倒性的实证证据之后,仍然倡导导致贫困的</span><span lang="EN-US">socialismo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的那些人,还有我们自己的领导者、思想家和学者,他们依靠错误的理论框架,破坏了给予我们历史上最大规模财富和繁荣扩张的制度的基础。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我所指的理论框架是新古典经济理论,它设计了一套工具,不管是有意还是无意,最终服务于国家干预、社会主义和社会退化。新古典经济学的问题在于,他们所热爱的模型并不符合现实。所以,他们将错误归咎于所谓的市场失败,而不是重新审视模型的前提。以所谓市场失败为借口,引入监管,这只会扭曲价格体系,阻碍经济计算,因此也阻碍了储蓄、投资和增长。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">问题主要在于,即便所谓的自由主义经济学家也不理解市场是什么。因为如果他们真的理解了,就会很快看到市场失败这样的事情是不可能存在的。市场不是描述供求曲线的图表;市场是一个社会合作的机制,你在其中自愿交换所有权。因此,基于这个定义,谈论市场失败是一个悖论。如果交易是自愿的,就不存在市场失败。市场失败唯一可能存在的情境是有强制存在,而一般能够实施强制的只有国家,因为它拥有暴力垄断权。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,如果有人认为市场出现了失败,我建议他们检查是否与国家干预有关,如果他们发现并非如此,我建议他们再检查一遍,因为显然有错误。市场失败是不存在的。新古典主义者所描述的所谓市场失败的一个例子是经济体中的集中结构。然而,如果没有规模收益递增功能,其对应的是经济中的集中结构,我们就无法解释自</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年以来的经济增长。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这不是很有趣吗?自</span><span lang="EN-US">1800</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年以来,人口增长了八到九倍,而人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">仍增长了</span><span lang="EN-US">15</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">倍以上。因此,回报在不断增长,这将极端贫困从</span><span lang="EN-US">95%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">降至</span><span lang="EN-US">5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。然而,存在不断增长的回报涉及到集中结构,我们称之为垄断。那么,为什么新古典主义理论认为,创造了如此多福祉的东西却是市场失败呢?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当模型失败时,新古典经济学家怪罪于现实。他们不应该对现实而是应该对模型感到愤怒,并改变模型。新古典模型面临的困境是,他们说,他们希望通过攻击所谓的市场失败来完善市场的功能,但在这样做的过程中,他们不仅为社会主义打开了大门,也阻碍了经济增长。例如:对垄断进行监管,破坏它们的利润,并摧毁增长的收益回报,这将自动地破坏经济增长。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">换句话说,每当你想要纠正一个所谓的市场失败时,由于不了解市场是什么,或者是因为沉迷于一个失败的模型,你就在为</span><span lang="EN-US">socialismo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">打开大门,将人民置于贫困之中。然而,面对国家干预是有害的理论证明,以及表明其失败的实证证据,情况本不应如此,集体主义者提出的解决方案不是更大的自由,而是更严格的监管,这产生了螺旋式不断增加监管的恶性循环,直到我们所有人都变贫穷。而我们所有人的生活,都取决于坐在豪华办公室里的官僚。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">鉴于集体主义模式的惨败,以及无可否认的自由世界的进步,</span><span lang="EN-US">socialista</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">被迫改变了他们的议程。他们抛弃了基于经济体系的阶级斗争,转而替换为其他所谓的社会冲突,这些冲突对社区生活和经济增长同样有害。这些新战役中的第一个是荒谬和非自然的男性与女性之争。自由主义已经提供了性别之间的平等。我们信条的基石是所有人生而平等,我们都拥有创造者赋予的同样不可剥夺的权利,包括生命、自由和所有权。这种激进的女权主义议程所导致的只是更大的国家干预,阻碍了经济过程,为那些对社会没有贡献的官僚提供了工作,例子包括妇女部门或致力于推广这一议程的国际组织。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">社会主义者提出的另一个冲突是人类与自然之间的对抗,声称我们人类破坏了应该不惜一切代价保护的地球。他们甚至走得太远,主张人口控制机制或血腥的堕胎计划。不幸的是,这些有害的想法已经在我们社会中占据了强势地位。新马克思主义者设法渗入了西方世界的常识,他们通过占据媒体、文化、大学和国际组织来实现这一目标。国际组织可能是情况最严重的,因为这些机构对作为多边组织成员的国家的政治和经济决策有着巨大的影响。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">幸运的是,越来越多的人敢于发出我们的声音,因为我们看到,如果我们不真正且果断地对抗这些观点,我们唯一可能的命运就是增加国家管制的水平,</span><span lang="EN-US">socialismo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,贫困和减少自由,因此我们的生活水平将会变得更差。不幸的是,西方已经开始走上这条道路。我知道对许多人来说,暗示西方已转向社会主义,似乎听起来很荒谬,但这只是因为你将社会主义局限于传统经济的定义,才会显得荒谬,该定义认为社会主义是一种国家拥有生产资料的经济体系。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">依我之见,这个定义应该依据当前的形势进行更新。如今,国家不需要直接控制生产资料就能控制个人生活的各个方面。通过印钞、债务、补贴、控制利率、价格控制和管制等工具,来纠正所谓的市场失败,他们可以控制数以百万计个人的生活和命运。这就是我们如何形成了这样的局面,即在大多数西方国家,许多被普遍接受的政治提议,无论它们是公开宣称为</span><span lang="EN-US">comunismo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、法西斯主义、纳粹主义、社会主义、社会民主主义、国家社会主义、民主基督教或基督教民主主义、新保守主义、进步主义、民粹主义、民族主义还是全球主义,等等,都是集体主义的变种。究其根本,它们没有本质区别。它们都声称国家应该操控个人生活的各个方面。它们捍卫的都是与那个引领人类走向史无前例进步的模式相反的模式。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我们今天来到这里,是为了邀请西方世界的其他国家重回繁荣之路。经济自由、有限政府和对私有财产的无限尊重是经济增长的基本要素,而集体主义所产生的贫困并非幻想,也不是不可避免的命运,而是我们阿根廷人非常了解的现实。我们经历过这一切。我们经历这一切是因为,正如我之前所说,自从我们决定放弃让我们富裕的自由模式以来,我们就落入了一个不断下行的螺旋,我们每天都变得越来越贫穷。所以,这是我们经历过的事情,我们在这里警告你,如果那些通过自由模式变得富裕的西方国家,继续走这条通往奴役之路,这就是将会发生的情况。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">阿根廷是一个实证示范,无论你有多富裕,或者拥有多少自然资源,或者你有多少的技术熟练或受过良好教育的人口,或者你的中央银行有多少金条,如果采取阻碍市场自由运作、自由竞争、自由价格体系的措施,如果你阻碍贸易,如果你攻击私有财产,唯一可能的命运就是贫困。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,在结束时,我想对在场的所有商业人士,以及那些虽然不在场却在世界各地关注我们的人说一句话:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不要被吓到,不要被政治阶层或依赖国家生活的寄生虫所吓倒!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不要屈服于只想掌握权力并保留特权的政治阶级!你们是社会的恩人,你们是英雄,你们是我们所见过最非凡繁荣时期的创造者!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不要听任何人说,你的雄心壮志是不道德的。如果你赚钱,那是因为你以更优惠的价格,提供了更好的产品,从而有助于普遍的福祉。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不要屈服于国家的步步逼近。国家不是解决方案;国家就是问题本身。你们是这个故事的真正主角,请放心,从今天起,阿根廷是你们无条件的盟友。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非常感谢,自由万岁,妈的!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自电报群。原文链接已被和谐)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">https://weibo.cn/sinaurl?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%2Ft_kVI9nTf3YzLvjXJ_M--A<o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-23149895844073877462024-01-03T07:22:00.000+11:002024-01-03T07:22:01.956+11:00李承鹏:202X的宏大叙事与鸡零狗碎<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">文</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21pt;">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21pt;">李承鹏</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,按天干地支是癸卯年,犯水兔,玄学家说,这一年易遭洪灾。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有个视频:铜锣般大的漩涡里,一个涿州男人抓住房梁大声嚷嚷着,救援队为什么还不来,还不来……不一会儿,他就没声音了,顺着水漂下去,经过被冲走的私家车,经过餐厅里漂出来的桌椅,不见了……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">还有一个视频:一个妇人背着母亲趟水走着,她本是开车去医院看病,开到半道,水悄无声息就上来了,妇人下车躲进路边店里,眼睁睁看车子被冲走,店里也进了没腰的水,她背着母亲四处寻找水浅些的地方,但找不到……母女俩被冲走时,还保持着倔强抓地的姿势,正像她们的生活。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">你永远不知道涿州淹死多少人……这不妨碍</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的宏大叙事,“众志成城,人间有爱”“天降大雨洪水猛如虎,涿州抗洪英雄重抖擞”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">宏大叙事一向是安抚苦难最好的春药。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">当年据守雎阳的张巡为保长安,白花花的爱妾都可以杀掉分食给兵士,其忠可鉴,其苦昭然。为了保住雄安,淹死几只蝼蚁没什么大不了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">《南方周末》本是林黛玉,堕落成潘金莲倒还好,现在直接堕落成于丹了,“</span><span lang="EN-US">2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的第一束阳光正在深处积蓄,守住自己的内心,守住自己的生活,守住不惑的底线,即使不清楚前路,仍可选择做最值得的自己,去思考,去行动,去迎接”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">挺脏的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">死了那么多人,却让人们守住自己的内心,经济一泄千里,却让守住自己的生活,守住不惑的底线……还有一些年度总结展望,通篇鸡汤,伤疤当纹身,苦难当勋章。往好听了说,这是全民精神马洒基,不幸的是,一种很不好的写法正卷土重来,就是上世纪九十年代初的“拥抱太阳”文风,再苦再累,也要拥抱心中那一抹阳光……也就是秉笔太监写法,皇上还没高潮,你先呻吟上了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,其实是很恶劣的一年。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">世道并没有因解除封控变好,反因为不再有疫情借口,暴露了生活真相。人们看不到希望,也不再去争取希望,面对谎言,人们配合、奉迎,共谋了下一次巨大的沉船,倒计时在成千上万人心里嘀哒响着,却又变成响彻云霄的“愿祖国昌盛,国泰民安”,朋友圈还是那么和谐美好,庙堂之上,勾栏酒肆,分不清谁在骗谁。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">抱歉,我也宏大叙事了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,其实是个适合死人的年份。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">忽然间,蒋彥永先生就走了。印象中他不会走,只是石头一样被雪藏在</span><span lang="EN-US">301</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">医院后院,也不发光,偶尔北平一场大雪,院里有块凸起的阴影会告诉你,这人还活着。</span><span lang="EN-US">2020</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年年底,疫情未完,在杭州一家小酒馆,他的堂侄说:堂伯身体还好……那天大雪,人们遥对西湖敬了一杯,像遥敬在雪天一线中孤独行走的义人吴六奇。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">没几个人知道蒋彥永,不知道</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年前他顶住压力向外媒通报真相,才使</span><span lang="EN-US">Sars</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不在谎言中泛滥,而他后半生处于禁闭状态。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">忽然间,被迫远走异国的高耀洁先生也走了。人们哀恸她死在纽约郊区一间灰扑扑的老年公寓里。不必哀恸,当年为了施压,政府的同志曾强令她住太平间里长达八个月,儿子也受了牵连。儿子才十三岁,判不了刑,政府的同志很遵守法律的,就把孩子改大了三岁,让他得到应有惩罚。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">完美。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,死人和判刑一直操作得很完美,后续丝滑,传统工艺,像在制作一块巧克力,为死者讳,就说:出品自一架赛博流水线机器。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">没什么人关心丰碑一般存在过的蒋彥永,没什么人关心星星一样照在头顶的高耀洁。大家都匍匐在尘埃里低头刨食,仰头是一件太昂贵的事。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所有的死去都很沉默,而沉默的死亡,就不算死亡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">并没有被人投毒的朱令……并没有被一根鞋带勒死的胡鑫宇……没有脚腕被掰断,扎了很多小孔,然后从楼上坠落下来的商丘宁陵县学生……也没有那些埋在东北某地体育馆废墟的学生们。我一直分不清齐齐哈尔和佳木斯,现在更分不清了,像分不清死去的蝼蚁们,甲乙丙丁,庙堂之上,尘埃之下……不必分清,我们都是数字,组成数字货币的碳水化合物那部分。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有没有发现,这一年,当世道诡异到极点,你会怀疑自己是不是活在</span><span lang="EN-US">AI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">设定的虚拟世界。有个学生被老师的车撞死了,丧子之痛,其母前来讨说法,下面评论一水儿的指责“这妈妈穿巴宝莉风衣,一万多呢”“不知道是干什么职业的,还化妆”“想讹钱吧”……然后,这名被网暴的妈妈就跳楼死了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人性呢,人性呢……索多玛城内,每一个坏人都能给自己劣行找到光明正大的理由,到最后,城里已无做人的标准,无行事标准,最后一丝人性在振振有词中一起败坏掉。所以</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,逃出城的人更多了,头也不回润掉,怕一回头,就变成盐柱子。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">永远忘不了那个走线的大妈,她一脸绝决,把行李往河里一扔,把自己也往河里一扔,拼命游着,游着,像是怕什么东西追上来……我分不清那是厄瓜多尔还是智利的某条河,河里应该没有鳄鱼,但她拼命逃避着什么,我知道,那其实是她过往的生活。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">她终于游上岸时,多少看着手机的人们发出来自灵魂深处的欢呼。这一刻,她不是一个人在走线,她实现了许多人心照不宣的梦想,宏大叙事中,一个鸡零狗碎的图腾……倒挺英雄史诗的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,确实是个适合死人的年份,蝼蚁之外,还有中堂,长江黄河不会倒流,但中堂会提前走。我偶尔还是要想起从李斯到王安石到于谦到张居正,猜想张居正坐三十二人抬的大轿时,有没有想到自己的结局。帝国没有变,游戏没有变,旗号不同而已。这一年,稍有风吹草动,革命梦想家就要想像某起事件会不会带来大格局变化。不会的,不会的,基本盘很稳啊,人们忙着低头觅食,哪管洪水滔天。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">沉默的死亡,不算死亡。有一种死亡叫:活着。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有一个视频,几个上海的网约车司机历经每天跑十六个小时的疲惫后,理性分析:跑完最后一单,回家不仅费油还耽误睡眠时间,比如最后一单在虹桥,家住浦东,回家的成本就是两单生意了。他(她)们准备了起居物料,被子,烧水机,跑完当天最后一单,就近睡在停车场睡在车里</span><span lang="EN-US">......</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">他们甚至更理性的分析,送外卖更划算,毕竟多一些自由的时间,人到中年,还是自由更重要嘛。这是关于自由最尴尬的探讨画面。网约车司机增长了</span><span lang="EN-US">120%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,多少曾经在大厂拿着数十万年薪的中产阶级当了骆驼祥子。其实他们之前也是祥子,不过从电脑前,改为方向盘前。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">马斯克说,随着</span><span lang="EN-US">AI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">技术飞速发展,人类会进化成硅基生物。他还是肤浅了,我国已在马克思的指导下,另辟蹊径发明了碳基</span><span lang="EN-US">AI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">生物,十四亿听话的碳基机器人,遵从指令,每日劳作,按时交税,超逾硅基机器人的优势是,保养,护理,培育下一代,均自行解决。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">还是有好消息。健身房倒闭后,我的成都老乡汉克吃上了软饭。他是物理系高材生,某年大学生健身大赛的季军,偶尔失落。我说,不消失落,你仍然可以普及物理,告诉她</span><span lang="EN-US">E=mc^2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">意味着什么,即:物质不可能通过努力加速超越光速,屌丝不可能通过努力工作超越阶层。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我对经济的理解仅限于记住银行卡密码(有时候也记不住),</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的宏观经济可以去问吴敬琏,张维迎,许小年,或者去看老蛮数据、贺江兵也挺不错。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这一年,就记得些鸡零狗碎的事:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">三年前,我反复劝好兄弟海涛赶紧卖掉通州的房子。他为了多五十万坚决不卖。</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,降价一百万也无人问津。他找我说起这事,我说“你个傻逼”。他看着我,抱怨“鹏哥,你是文人怎么骂人呢”……一次经济预判被教育成“讲文明,树新风”。以后我不骂人了,我会鼓掌夸“你做的对,都对”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我的朋友托德是沈阳人,去理发时,理发师抱怨,以前人们一年怎么也理十次发,现在肉眼可见次数下降到六、七次,染发、烫发明显减少。理发是刚需,发如韭,割复生……人类自动收缩所有消费行为,也好,三五年不理发,就可以留出满清时的辫子了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有贴子说这一年,算命的收入少多了,因为大家都认命了,没兴趣算命。其实现在年轻人掀起了算命狂潮,除塔罗牌销量再创新高,最流行的是“请仙家”:每个人身后都有一个“仙家”照应命运,找不到工作挣不到钱,是你把自己的仙家弄丢了,得找高手帮请回黄大仙,青龙仙,白龙仙,胡仙太爷……生意爆好,预约还得排号,像去医院看病一样热闹。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">就是:不相信国家,就相信仙家……论五斗米教的诞生。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">当然还是有一些大手笔:天津河北区政府几个月发不起公务员工资,于是向大悲院借了几个亿,维持到七月份又没钱了,又找大悲院借钱,方丈抱怨说,自古以来还没有官府到佛门化缘的</span><span lang="EN-US">......</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">别嘴硬,相信不久的将来国家会把寺院全部收归国有,五台山风景区把功德箱收归国有后,财政收入上涨了</span><span lang="EN-US">440%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">计划生死,计划经济,计划信仰。如果一定要问我对</span><span lang="EN-US">2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年的展望,就是:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">以前塑佛像时,内腑是要放些五谷杂粮或金银宝贝的,以后,该在佛的肚腑里放上党员证,这才能确保佛不会犯错误,在党的领导下把握慈航方向。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">朋友们催我写年度总结和新年展望,但我并不擅长,一是懒得查询资料,二是我实在分不清</span><span lang="EN-US">1949</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span lang="EN-US">1979</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有什么不同,搞不懂</span><span lang="EN-US">1962</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">和</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有什么不一样。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">只说,在新的一年来到之际,别站在阳台颅内射似地高喊“拥抱新年,新年新气象”,别以为跨个年你的房贷就还清了,阶层就跨越了,不是你跨了年,而是年跨了你,新的一年将接力赛般把你跨于胯下,此时你只需干一件事,牢记使命,不忘初心——搁哪一年,我都是韭菜,我都是人矿!我的孩子无论读什么大学,都是矿业大学。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">海哥他们设计院有个勤奋的年轻设计师,毕业几年就成立了自己的设计公司,干了不少项目,傍上了恒大,生意爆好,再然后,恒大爆雷,欠款成了死账。为了维持公司运转,年轻人借了不少高利贷,恶性循环,终被列为失信名单……现在,他在深圳当保安。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">说起恒大,不少人爱扒恒大歌舞团那个香艳无比、轻松举个一字马的白珊珊,这也是传统工艺了,大明死于陈圆圆,总有祸水是红颜。他们不敢去扒给许家印贷款的官家,只好兴趣盎然聊起一字马。就这点出息。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">深圳跨年时,太多人涌向商场</span><span lang="EN-US">LED</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">大屏幕迎接新年,几大商场不得不关闭大屏幕,黑暗中,人们仍不愿离去,数着数,许着愿,相信黑暗中总会迎来好运……只是,一群人在黑暗中祈祷房价回到三年前,一群人在黑暗中祈祷房价再多跌点,不同的心语星愿聚在同一块大屏幕下,同一个世界不同的梦想……不知穿着保安服的年轻设计师,在不在其中。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,始于宏大叙事,终于鸡零狗碎。据说前几年《厉害了我的国》时,阿里巴巴,腾讯,百度和美团市值加起来超过苹果五百亿美金。到了今天,中国最具价值的网络科技公司前</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">强总市值全加一起也比不过苹果一家,就鸡零狗碎了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有人问:这几年到底发生了什么,才走到这一步。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不得不再次矫情地启用程蝶衣的台词:你当今儿个小人作乱,祸从天降?不是!不对!是咱们自个儿一步步一步步走到这步田地的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一切都僵死,甚至连僵死都僵死,人们不仅不心存复苏,也不在乎</span><span lang="EN-US">Game
Over</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">,就是跳伞跳到一半,发现背的不是伞包而是书包,对,就是这情况。别想什么历史转折点,转折点是</span><span lang="EN-US">1949</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,那一刻剧本就定稿了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">刚看了元旦祝词,百度了一下,原来这是诺贝尔文学奖得主莫言的名言:人生有风有雨是常态,风雨无阻是心态,风雨兼程是状态。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有风有雨是常态,但请不要人工降雨。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以真正风向标的是,湖南青年们站出来了,圣诞这一天,他们打着红旗走上街头,高喊“打倒资本家”“回到毛泽东时代”,你一定要相信,他们不是一小撮,他们代表很多热血青年的心声。他们的父辈还是青年时,每个新年也都这么打着红旗上街的,他们只是延续父辈未竟之使命。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">没什么新年,每一个新年都这么旧旧的过去了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">生活从来也没新过。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以我写的不是</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">总结,也不是</span><span lang="EN-US">2024</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年展望,往后很多个年头都是一个年头,就叫</span><span lang="EN-US">202X</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1997</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年,王小波的新年祝词是,“但愿在新的一年里,我们能远离一切古怪的事,大家做个健全的人”。王小波是个健全的人,所以才提出这么古怪的祝词。事实上,不健全的我们已成了古怪事的有机部分。我们唯一能做的就是对家人好一点,再好一点。上一代人,这一代人,下一代人,终归不免生于宏大叙事,死于鸡零狗碎。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">或者就像那个穿着冲锋衣的走线大妈,把行李和自己往河里一扔,拼命游过去,游过去,而不是像涿州男人,悄无声息地与餐厅漂出来的桌椅一起,被冲走……连数字都算不上。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">(李承鹏于</span><span lang="EN-US">202X</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">月</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">转自: </span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">https://twitter.com/dayangelcp/status/1742230168431919295</span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-58149149480526466172023-12-08T21:48:00.003+11:002023-12-08T21:48:37.942+11:00惨不忍睹!哈马斯10月7日对以色列平民大屠杀的视频内容(文字版)<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自微信群)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我现在明白为什么这个视频必须有选择性地播放了</span><span lang="EN-US">……<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">翻译这个,是希望所有的人无论你信仰什么都能首先记得自己已经进化到了人类,千万个理由,都不是你可以变成野兽的理由,</span><span lang="EN-US">Be a Man!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b><u>(文字版)全文如下</u></b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b><u>:</u></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我刚刚在纽约的一场非公开特别放映中观看了</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日大约</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">分钟的片段。这是我看完几分钟里的记忆和感受。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">该视频主要由数百名恐怖分子携带的哈马斯</span><span lang="EN-US">GoPro</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">相机</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">手机汇编而成,但也包括以色列闭路电视、行车记录仪、交通摄像头和急救人员的手机视频,将恐怖分子在整个事件之前、期间和之后的视频拼凑在一起还原了大屠杀。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">视频开始时,哈马斯恐怖分子乘坐配备</span><span lang="EN-US">AK-47</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、火箭弹和几挺重机枪的卡车后部,穿过边境墙的切口。恐怖分子们欢呼雀跃,一遍又一遍地喊着“真主至大</span><span lang="EN-US">!</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”更多的卡车和摩托车在他们身后进入以色列。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">第一个场景是在以色列南部的一条高速公路上,通过行车记录仪拍摄,十多名恐怖分子分散开来,击落汽车,子弹穿过玻璃,然后哈马斯向汽车开枪,他们接近并射杀了车里的一男一女近距离以确保他们死亡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下一个是基布兹入口处大门的闭路电视监控,哈马斯恐怖分子走到大门前,希望能进入,但门已关闭,他们离开了镜头。一辆民用汽车驶近开始打开的大门。恐怖分子近距离向他们车窗开枪,确保所有人都死了,然后走进基布兹。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一个基布兹的家庭闭路电视录像显示,一位穿着内衣的父亲</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">看起来刚刚醒来</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">疯狂地抱着他的两个儿子,奔跑着,男孩们也穿着内衣。另一个摄像机显示他们离开房子并进入后院的避难所。几秒钟后,一名哈马斯接近父子俩进入的避难所,向里面查看,然后向里面扔了一枚手榴弹。父亲从避难所坠落身亡,他显然是试图站在儿子和恐怖分子之可。力玖仙议间,里孩们被一名恐怖分子从他们死去父辛尸休房的避难所拉了出来。他们被带回屋内,放在屋内的沙发上。他们痛苦的呻吟声清晰可见,受伤的伤□处的鲜血覆盖了他们,男孩们互相交谈着</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">爸爸死了。”哥哥试图安慰浑身是血的弟弟。</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">你能用眼睛看到东西吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一点也不</span><span lang="EN-US">?"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“不,我什么也看不见。”他们旁边的恐怖分子正在翻冰箱挑选水和可乐来喝。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">幼儿园内的闭路电视录像。一名孤独的老师躲在房间里,试图用儿童午睡垫来隐藏。哈马斯恐怖分子进入,搜查房间,查看她的房间并向她开枪。恐怖分子进入房间,确定她已经死亡,然后将她放在肩膀上并带走。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">Nova</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">音乐节的场景。远处的年轻的人们在跳舞此时哈马斯的滑翔伞出现了。接着就是枪声。然后青少年们在混乱中奔跑。首先是在汽车中,然后当哈马斯恐怖分子出现时,数百人抛弃汽车并大规模跑进空旷的场地。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">哈马斯的车辆抵达节日现场,恐怖分子跳出来向穿过场地的青少年开火。安装在一辆皮卡车后部的一挺哈马斯重机枪开火。然后哈马斯进入节日音乐节场地,疯狂射击。视频中,以色列青少年躲在厕所门里,吓得魂飞魄散。然后是尸体和血迹的视频。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数十名以色列青少年躲在一个装满黑色垃圾袋的大垃圾箱里。几秒钟后,紧急救援者的视频显示垃圾箱里只有尸体。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">到达节日的第一批紧急救援人员在到达食品</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">酒吧帐篷时大声喊道“我有</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人死亡,</span><span lang="EN-US">2..3,4,5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人死亡”</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">还有人活着吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”“如果你还活着,请告诉我”,然后向吧台望去,看到数十具平民尸体躺在一起。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在节日派对上强奸年轻女性。第一个视频显示,一群超过</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">名的少女害怕地挤在帐篷里,瑟瑟发抖。哈马斯恐怖分子进入帐篷。所有戴着手铐的女孩走出帐篷,脸上都沾满了血。有些放入不同的车辆原来挤在一起的一个女孩从队伍中走了出来,分开并被放进一辆吉普车。后来同一个女孩动了,裤子上沾满了血,从肛门到裤子前面。更多死亡少女躺在节日音乐节现场的照片,没有裤子,裸露下体,双腿奇怪的盘缠着,似乎骨折。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">斩首。其中一个场景显示,哈马斯在基布兹对一名死去的以色列老人尖叫,踩在他的头上,然后让人在附近花园寻找锄头。哈马斯恐怖分子用锄头疯狂抡砍着老人的脖子,多次试图将他斩首。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">后来的场景中,一名哈马斯恐怖分子拿着一把刀,迅速砍下了一名以色列国防军士兵的头,他的头上还戴着头盔,然后带着士兵的头离开了。其他照片中,田野里的头颅因某种被粉碎而被压扁。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">许多尸体被烧毁的场景。尸体被扔在车里、高速公路上、家里的尴尬位置,然后被烧成灰烬。它让我回忆起参观达豪集中营以及在那里看到的大屠杀的照片。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从军事角度,我看到哈马斯战士接受过训练,领导人下令进行系统性杀戮,节省弹药。命令“只朝他们的头部开一枪,节省你的弹药。”我通过无线电听到了他们与加沙领导人的通讯。也是没有受过训练的恐怖分子。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">名哈马斯恐怖分子用一名以色列妇女的手机给他的父母打电话</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">父亲,我在……我刚刚杀了</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个犹太人,他们的血在我手里,感谢上帝,告诉妈妈,你的儿子正在屠杀犹太人。”与他交谈的男人</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">爸爸</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和女人</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">妈妈</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只是大喊并回答</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">杀,杀,杀”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在中东</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">乌克兰等战争中,我亲眼目睹了世界各地的邪恶。我见过令人发指的残忍</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非人化</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">残害。我直视过邪恶之人的眼睛。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但我从未见过这么多恶人</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">成百上千</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在实施他们的残暴行为时表现出如此快乐。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我现在明白为什么这个视频必须有选择性地播放了。观看它时你不可能不受到某种程度的创伤。我永远不会忘记孩子们。一张又一张穿着米老鼠、史迪奇睡衣的浑身是血死去的孩子的照片。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我讨厌看视频。你无法忽视其中所表现出的邪恶。没有人愿意看到它,但那一天的恐怖永远不应该被忘记。从来没有合理化过。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我脑子里一直浮现着过去的</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不再”这句话,但我又看了一遍。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">每一个找理由的人,都好好问问自己,你支持的是什么</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是什么原因,让你能够接受这种野兽的行为</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以色列超话</span><span lang="EN-US"> #</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">巴以冲突</span><span lang="EN-US">##</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">巴勒斯坦</span><span lang="EN-US">##</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以色列</span><span lang="EN-US">##</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以色列巴勒斯坦冲突</span><span lang="EN-US">#<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><br /></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-79076708799434817502023-11-22T20:26:00.003+11:002023-11-22T20:26:52.973+11:00维稳经费超过国防、教育、科技三项支出总和,这是必要还是浪费?<p><a href="https://author.baidu.com/home?from=bjh_article&app_id=1759322737218549" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-pack: start; align-items: center; color: black; display: inline !important; font-family: PingFangSC-Regular; font-size: 13px; justify-content: flex-start; letter-spacing: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span class="_2gGWi" data-testid="author-name" style="color: #333333; display: inline !important; margin-right: 16px; text-wrap: nowrap;">天外来恩</span></a></p><div class="_3tNyU" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(242, 242, 242);"><div class="_2oTsX" id="header" style="margin-top: 34px; padding-bottom: 14px; position: relative;"><div class="bH7m7 " style="-webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; display: flex;"><div class="_2bKNC" style="margin-right: 24px; max-width: 490px; overflow: hidden;"><div class="_1HGmt" style="-webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; color: #9195a3; display: flex; font-family: PingFangSC-Regular; font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height: 15px;"><span class="_2sjh9" data-testid="updatetime" style="margin-right: 8px; text-wrap: nowrap;">2023-11-20 14:31</span><span class="_2Wctx" data-testid="address" style="margin-right: 8px; text-wrap: nowrap;">广东</span></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="_18p7x" data-testid="article" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(242, 242, 242); padding-bottom: 16px; padding-top: 30px;"><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">维稳,是一个在中国经常被提及的词汇,它指的是政府为了维护社会稳定,采取的各种措施和手段,包括但不限于增加公共安全和公共财政的支出,加强对社会舆论和民间组织的管控,打击和镇压各种异见和抗议活动等。维稳,被认为是中国政府的首要任务和最高目标,也被认为是中国社会的最大需求和最大利益。<br style="display: block; max-width: 100%;" /></p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">但是,维稳的代价是什么?维稳的效果又如何?维稳是否真的能够保障社会的和谐和进步?这些问题,却很少被公开讨论和深入分析。本文将从数据的角度,对中国的维稳经费进行一些简单的比较和评价,试图揭示维稳的真相和影响。</p></div><div class="_3hMwG _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; display: flex; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin-top: 22px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><div class="_1NCGf" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; align-items: center; display: flex; flex-direction: column; width: 700px;"><img class="_1g4Ex _1i_Oe" src="https://pics0.baidu.com/feed/d4628535e5dde711ff9cedcfc72cd1169c166189.jpeg@f_auto?token=4e8d009b221d6c1156ad30ee7d30cb3b" style="border-radius: 13px; border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05); width: 700px;" width="640" /></div></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 28px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><h3 style="font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px;">中国的维稳经费是多少?</h3></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">要回答这个问题,首先要明确,维稳经费是一个模糊的概念,没有一个统一的定义和标准。不同的人,可能会根据不同的理解和判断,将不同的项目和内容,纳入或排除在维稳经费的范畴之内。因此,任何关于维稳经费的数字,都可能存在一定的主观性和不确定性,不能作为绝对的真理和权威。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">但是,我们可以根据一些公开的数据,对维稳经费进行一个大致的估算和推断。根据两会上提交审议的预算草案,2022年中国公共安全支出预算为7018亿元,比上年增长12.3%。这一数字,主要包括了公安、检察、法院、司法行政等部门的经费,以及维护社会治安、打击犯罪、处理群体性事件等方面的经费。这一数字,可以被认为是维稳经费的一个重要组成部分,也是一个相对明确和可靠的数据。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">但是,这一数字并不能完全反映维稳经费的真实规模,因为还有一些其他的项目和内容,也可以被认为是与维稳相关的支出,比如公共财政支出。根据中国政府网的数据,2022年中国公共财政支出预算为26.01万亿元,比上年增长6.1%。这一数字,主要包括了各级政府的一般性支出和专项性支出,涉及到各个领域和方面,比如教育、卫生、社会保障、就业、住房、环境、交通、农业、文化、体育等。这些支出,虽然不是直接用于维稳的,但是也可以被认为是间接用于维稳的,因为它们都是为了改善民生、缓解矛盾、增加满意度、稳定预期等目的而进行的。因此,这一数字,也可以被认为是维稳经费的一个重要组成部分,但是也是一个相对模糊和不准确的数据。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">综合以上两个数字,我们可以得出一个粗略的结论,2022年中国的维稳经费总额约为32.03万亿元,占GDP的2.6%左右。当然,这个数字并不是一个精确的数字,也不是一个固定的数字,它可能会根据不同的计算方法和判断标准,有所增减和变化。但是,它至少可以给我们一个大概的印象和参考,让我们能够对维稳经费有一个基本的认识和了解。</p></div><div class="_3hMwG _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; display: flex; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin-top: 22px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><div class="_1NCGf" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; align-items: center; display: flex; flex-direction: column; width: 700px;"><img class="_1g4Ex _1i_Oe" src="https://pics6.baidu.com/feed/3ac79f3df8dcd100f73f37432f48581db8122f05.jpeg@f_auto?token=5a77fcf6aab22fa1d51dd20fbce3365c" style="border-radius: 13px; border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05); width: 700px;" width="640" /></div></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 28px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><h3 style="font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px;">中国的维稳经费与其他的经费相比如何?</h3></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">有了维稳经费的数字,我们就可以将它与其他的经费进行一些比较和分析,看看维稳经费在中国的财政支出中,占据了多大的比重和地位,以及与其他的支出项目,有什么样的差异和联系。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">首先,我们可以将维稳经费与国防支出进行比较。根据两会上提交审议的预算草案,2022年中国国防支出预算为14,504.5亿元,比上年增长7.1%,占GDP的1.2%左右。这一数字,主要包括了人员费、训练费、装备费、建设费等方面的经费,用于维护国家的安全和利益,提升国家的实力和影响。这一数字,可以被认为是国防经费的一个重要组成部分,也是一个相对明确和可靠的数据。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">从这个数字,我们可以看出,中国的维稳经费,远远超过了国防支出,几乎是国防支出的两倍多。这说明,中国政府更加重视国内的稳定,而不是国外的威胁,更加担心国内的动荡,而不是国外的侵略,更加投入国内的管控,而不是国外的扩张。这也说明,中国政府认为,国内的稳定,是国家的根本和基础,是国家的生命线和命脉,是国家的前提和条件,是国家的保障和支撑。没有国内的稳定,就没有国外的安全,没有国内的稳定,就没有国家的发展,没有国内的稳定,就没有国家的未来。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">但是,这个数字也可以从另一个角度来看,中国的维稳经费,是否过于庞大和浪费,是否占用了国防支出的资源和空间,是否影响了国防支出的效率和效果,是否削弱了国防支出的必要性和紧迫性。毕竟,国防支出,也是国家的重要支出,也是国家的重要任务和目标,也是国家的重要需求和利益。在一个世界格局不断变化,国际环境不断恶化,国家利益不断受到挑战和威胁的时代,国防支出,也不能被忽视和放松,也不能被牺牲和折扣,也不能被边缘化和孤立化。否则,国防支出,就会成为国家的软肋和短板,就会成为国家的隐患和危机,就会成为国家的负担和累赘。</p></div><div class="_3hMwG _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; display: flex; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin-top: 22px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><div class="_1NCGf" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; align-items: center; display: flex; flex-direction: column; width: 700px;"><img class="_1g4Ex _1i_Oe" src="https://pics5.baidu.com/feed/63d0f703918fa0ecab7e5eb9785446e33c6ddb1d.jpeg@f_auto?token=2e17e7b8bfe48eccbddc78ccc9ad5238" style="border-radius: 13px; border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05); width: 700px;" width="640" /></div></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 28px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">其次,我们可以将维稳经费与教育支出和科技支出进行比较。根据中国政府网的数据,2022年中国教育支出预算为5.04万亿元,比上年增长5.5%,占GDP的4.1%左右。2022年中国科技支出预算为1.09万亿元,比上年增长3.8%,占GDP的0.9%左右。这两个数字,主要包括了基础教育、高等教育、职业教育、继续教育等方面的经费,以及基础研究、应用研究、技术开发、科技服务等方面的经费,用于提升国民的素质和能力,促进科学的创新和发展。这两个数字,可以被认为是教育经费和科技经费的一个重要组成部分,也是一个相对明确和可靠的数据。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">从这两个数字,我们可以看出,中国的维稳经费,也远远超过了教育支出和科技支出,几乎是教育支出和科技支出的总和的两倍多。这说明,中国政府更加重视社会的稳定,而不是人民的发展,更加担心社会的动乱,而不是人民的贫困,更加投入社会的控制,而不是人民的教育。这也说明,中国政府认为,社会的稳定,是人民的福祉和幸福,是人民的需求和期待,是人民的利益和权利,是人民的荣誉和尊严。没有社会的稳定,就没有人民的发展,没有社会的稳定,就没有人民的富裕,没有社会的稳定,就没有人民的自由。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">但是,这个数字也可以从另一个角度来看,中国的维稳经费,是否过于庞大和浪费,是否占用了教育支出和科技支出的资源和空间,是否影响了教育支出和科技支出的效率和效果,是否削弱了教育支出和科技支出的必要性和紧迫性。毕竟,教育支出和科技支出,也是国家的重要支出,也是国家的重要任务和目标,也是国家的重要需求和利益。在一个知识经济和创新驱动的时代,教育支出和科技支出,也不能被忽视和放松,也不能被牺牲和折扣,也不能被边缘化和孤立化。否则,教育支出和科技支出,就会成为国家的软肋和短板,就会成为国家的隐患和危机,就会成为国家的负担和累赘。</p></div><div class="_3hMwG _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; display: flex; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin-top: 22px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><div class="_1NCGf" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-direction: normal; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; align-items: center; display: flex; flex-direction: column; width: 700px;"><img class="_1g4Ex _1i_Oe" src="https://pics2.baidu.com/feed/9358d109b3de9c82e5813bfd31429f0718d84328.jpeg@f_auto?token=f8b56d2c591b78b30f05496effb43d53" style="border-radius: 13px; border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05); width: 700px;" width="640" /></div></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 28px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><span class="bjh-p" style="max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto;"><span class="bjh-a" data-bjh-cover="" data-bjh-id="170019393217627343" data-bjh-src="https://m.baidu.com/s?word=%23AI%E5%8A%A9%E6%89%8B%E5%88%9B%E4%BD%9C%E5%AD%A3%23&topic_id=170019393217627343&sa=edit&sfrom=1023524a&append=1&newwindow=0&upqrade=1" data-bjh-type="topic" style="color: #4367b4; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%;">#AI助手创作季#</span>中国的维稳经费是否值得?</span></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">综合以上的比较和分析,我们可以得出一个初步的结论,中国的维稳经费,是一个庞大的数字,也是一个敏感的话题,也是一个复杂的问题。它既有它的合理性和必要性,也有它的问题和风险,既有它的优势和贡献,也有它的劣势和代价,既有它的正面和积极,也有它的负面和消极。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">因此,我们不能一概而论,不能一味地赞扬或者批评,不能一视同仁或者一刀切,而是要根据不同的情况和条件,进行具体的分析和评价,进行合理的选择和决策,进行有效的监督和改进。我们要既看到维稳经费的必要性和价值,也要看到维稳经费的浪费和危害,既要支持维稳经费的合理使用和有效管理,也要反对维稳经费的滥用和腐败,既要维护维稳经费的合法性和正当性,也要保障维稳经费的透明性和公开性。</p></div><div class="dpu8C _2kCxD " style="background-color: white; line-height: 30px; margin-top: 24px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"><p style="color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px; line-height: 30px; margin: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; overflow-y: auto; padding: 0px !important;">只有这样,我们才能真正地理解和评价维稳经费,才能真正地利用和优化维稳经费,才能真正地实现和保障维稳经费的目的和意义,才能真正地促进和发展维稳经费的功能和作用。</p><div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial; font-size: 18px;">转自:</div><div><span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 18px;">https://mbd.baidu.com/newspage/data/landingsuper?pageType=1&sShare=1&isBdboxFrom=1&urlext=%7B%22cuid%22%3A%22g8v5u08Mvu_OP2uvl8HO8_amH8gQu2iq_aSfu0uI-tKu0qqSB%22%7D&sid_for_share=57654_2&context=%7B%22nid%22%3A%22news_9247693349908690176%22,%22sourceFrom%22%3A%22bjh%22%7D</span></span></div></div><div class="_3hMwG" style="background-color: white; display: flex; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin-top: 22px; max-width: 100%; overflow-x: visible;"></div></div></div>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-66674398510597360602023-11-06T18:07:00.005+11:002023-11-06T18:15:23.710+11:00雷歌:文明的歧途:以色列应避免平民伤亡而“人道”停火吗?<p> 作者:<span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">雷歌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> 2023</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">11</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">1</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">日</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自微信群)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在半个多世纪前,当一国受到另一国的攻击,尤其是对平民野蛮屠杀时,另一国发起强烈反击,即使无意间伤及了他国平民,也没多少人认为不应该反击。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但在当今“文明社会”,人们却生出许多疑问</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">战争带来的不可避免的平民伤亡引发了社会焦虑,多数“文明人”对战争本身持否定态度,不再讨论战争的所谓“正义”与非正义。一些“文明人”尤其是激进左派反对一切战争。因为文明社会对生命的珍视,许多发达国家即使对十恶不赦的犯罪分子也废除了死刑,因此他们无法容忍战争造成的伤亡,尤其是无辜平民的伤亡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这就是</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日哈马斯对以色列发动恐袭,闯进以色列野蛮虐杀</span><span lang="EN-US">1400</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多人,然后以色列对哈马斯宣战,誓言进军加沙消灭哈马斯,并对加沙进行持续的高强度空袭后,国际社会的主流舆论却要求以色列立即对哈马斯“人道停火</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的原因。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">哈马斯恐怖分子虽然是一帮畜牲,他们却深谙摆布欧美“文明人”的诀窍。他们编造了加沙阿赫利阿拉伯医院遭以军空袭死亡</span><span lang="EN-US">500</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人的谎言,几乎所有的左派和左媒都立刻大受刺激,在他们的“人道”冲动激励下,左媒违反做新闻的基本准则,对哈马斯提供的说辞不加核实就大肆渲染,做了恐怖分子的传声筒。世界各地反以示威抗议随之风起云涌,不只是一贯反以色列的阿拉伯世界,在欧美主要发达国家,除了日本,几乎都爆发了大规模反以挺巴</span><span lang="EN-US">{</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">实际就等于支持哈马斯恐怖分子</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的示威游行。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">即使在阿赫利医院编造的故事被铁一般的事实揭穿,证明这是加沙恐怖组织自己发射的火箭失控造成的意外事故,而且伤亡最多也就几十人,这是对以色列彻头彻尾栽赃陷害之后,<u>除了华尔街日报第二天就在评论中作了自我批评,并在随后的追踪报道中还原了真相外,其他左媒包括路透社、</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">BBC</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、纽约时报等至今没有公开道歉</span></u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,纽约时报只在事发一周后写了个羞羞答答犹抱琵琶的“编辑说明”,称编辑本应“更加谨慎”云云。而且左媒中的大多数,以及许多发达国家的左派人士、世卫组织及联合国的一些机构和官员至今仍在按哈马斯</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">即所谓“加沙卫生部门”</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的口径继续渲染加沙平民的伤亡,哈马斯称加沙儿童死亡人数已超</span><span lang="EN-US">3500</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人,他们就说“加沙已成儿童的坟场”。哈马斯说加沙平民死亡已经超过</span><span lang="EN-US">8500</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,他们就说“以色列是战争罪犯,应该送国际刑事法庭”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">昨天,以军空袭了加沙北部贾巴利亚难民营的一个区域,当场击毙了包括哈马斯中央贾巴利亚营指挥官毕雅里在内的一批恐怖分子,也摧毁哈马斯在该地区的一些地下设施。同时也导致了一些平民伤亡。哈马斯的“加沙卫生部门”只字不提被击毙的哈马斯恐怖分子,又开始讲述以军空袭造成至少</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人死亡的故事。可是里边有多少是恐怖分子,多少是平民呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">网上曝出许多哈马斯造假摆拍的视频,甚至闹出了供媒体拍摄的“平民尸体”在白布下突然伸手摸脸挠痒痒的丑闻。同一个巴勒斯坦小女孩被人扒出最近已在不同场合出镜“受伤”了三次。还有哈马斯人员用颜料涂抹巴勒斯坦妇女儿童、帮她们化妆的后台视频流传出来。<u>网友们笑说现在哈马斯最缺的不是火箭弹,而是化妆师和群众演员。哈马斯知道占国际舆论主流的左媒们需要什么。</u></span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">27</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,联合国大会对约旦等二十多个阿拉伯国家提出的一项以哈之间立即“人道主义休战”动议的表决中,</span><span lang="EN-US">120</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个国家赞成,</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个国家弃权,只有</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个国家包括美国和以色列投了反对票。<u>这一表决把当今国际社会无原则的“人道”渲染推到了新高度。</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这项动议对哈马斯</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日对以色列和外国平民的残酷虐杀</span><span lang="EN-US">-</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">包括对平民特别是妇女儿童剁手指、砍脚掌、挖眼睛、割乳房,以及强奸妇女、斩首儿童、剖开孕妇肚子杀死胎儿、火烧活人等等一视而不见,不作任何谴责,却以所谓“人道”的理由要求以色列立即停火,</span>
<span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这是一种什么狗屁不通的“人道”</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">俄罗斯、中国、伊朗、叙利亚、朝鲜这种流氓国家投赞成票我一点不吃惊,一贯反以色列的阿拉伯国家投赞成票我也不吃惊。但发达国家中,法国、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞士、挪威、爱尔兰、比利时、斯洛文尼亚、新西兰、新加坡等国都投了赞成票,而英国、德国、意大利、加拿大、澳大利亚、荷兰、瑞典、日本和韩国等投了弃权票,他们中的绝大多数是力挺以色列正义自卫权的。这说明了什么</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">说明这些国家的政府过于忌惮国内“人道”舆论的压力。而这种“人道”舆论的压力在欧美发达国家是一种真实而强大的存在。</span></u><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“人道主义”的迫求本是社会文明进步的一种体现,提升底层民众的福利,强调少数族裔和少数人群的权益,加强对落后国家的援助等等,都是社会文明高度发展后才普遍出现的现象,对“人道”的追求,也融入了具有文明素质的当代人的血液,甚至成为一些人的信仰。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当“人道”作为个人的道德追求时,所有的荣耀及相关的责任都由个人承担。你散尽万贯家产救助别人,即使最终自己穷困潦倒也在所不惜,没人会指责你,只会赞美你的高尚。欧美国家一些真诚的人道主义者无微不至地关怀难民,不仅提供物质援助,甚至她们认为难民们没有性生活,她们都愿意主动为他们就身。这是他们自己的手。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但当“人道”成为一种组织行为乃至国家行为时,它就不只具有道德含义,必须考虑更广泛的社会后果。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">比如最近正在美国发生的汽车业大罢工事件,工会要求企业提高工人</span><span lang="EN-US">40%</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的工资,理由是公司</span><span lang="EN-US"> CEO</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">去年涨薪约</span><span lang="EN-US">35%(</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">管理层的涨薪都是直接与业绩挂钩的</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,工人也要同比例涨薪。工会的这种要求,看起来是对底层工人很八道“人道”,但这种不与工作表现挂钩的大幅涨薪,将直接侵蚀本已很低的传统汽车企业的利润空间,很可能导致企业破产。而破产的结果就是同归于尽,最终不仅损害广大工人的利益,也将严重损害美国经济。这几天谈判刚出结果,达成的初步协议是</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年内普涨工资</span><span lang="EN-US">25%</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,由于几年内将增加数百亿美元的支出,几大汽车公司被迫调整他们的未来预期、搁置他们向新能源车转型的计划,一些公司股价暴跌。业内普遍预期前景不妙。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只讲底层工人的“人道”,看上去很崇高,但不讲市场规则,结果往往很恐怖。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国一些民主党控制的深蓝州“零元购”</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">即公开抢劫</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">泛滥,是激进左派“人道”过头的另一个典型例子。<u>为了体现左派的司法宽容和“人道”救济,加州推出了偷盗价值</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">950</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美元以下的财物只算轻罪的法律。</span></u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">由于轻罪基本不用坐牢,这一法案的实施导致加州犯罪率成倍增加,到处都是成群结队的黑人拿着大麻袋进入超市和商店公开抢劫,没人敢管。对犯罪的过于“人道”和“宽容”,超出了应有限度,直接导致了犯罪的泛滥。这种“人道”本身就是对更多人的犯罪。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这就是人们常说的,真理往前多走一步,就会变成谬误,叫“过犹不及”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">类似的案例在欧美国家很多。比如美国的身份政治,本是源于对非裔和少数族裔的人道关怀,但做过了头,就变成反向的“种族歧视”,黑人的身份变成了各种通行证,样样要优待,甚至犯了罪也不治,还不准公开讨论,最终就变成了邪恶的“政治正确”。再比如对</span><span lang="EN-US">LGBTQ</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">等特殊性取向人士的宽容,本是一种文明进步。但在美国左派那里就变成了类似于对非裔身份政治的极端夸大。现在在一些激进左派眼里,人的性取向已经不是一个自然而然顺应本性的事。他们安排变性人士到中小学生中去讲解变性,要求懵懂未开的孩子们自己决定自己的性别和性取向,而且家长不准干涉。在一些激进左派控制的地区,一个穿着女性服饰、自称是女性的男子就可以闯进女厕所或女更衣室</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">参加女子选美,或者作为女性参与女子竞技比赛。所有这些都失去了正常的分寸,走向了邪恶。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在社会层面,社会运行有自身的内在规律,它远高于一些人的“人道”追求。一味强调表面化的“人道</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">情怀,结果往往走向极端的“非人道”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">回到目前正在进行的以哈战争。即使抛开哈马斯对加沙平民伤亡数字的造假、夸大和未经核实不说,即使哈马斯所说的数字是真实的,谁该对此负责</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以色列就该因此停火吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">哈马斯在接管加沙的</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年中,除了让巴勒斯坦人充当人肉炸弹去袭击以色列,然后展示他们的尸体和血迹骗取国际社会的援助,使成百上千名哈马斯高层成为亿万富翁,在卡塔尔、土耳其和其他地方过着纸醉金迷的生活,哈马斯除了收税,从未认真发展过加沙的经济,<u>一个最简单的事实是,哈马斯从未珍惜过巴勒斯坦人的生命和福祉。</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当以色列要消灭他们时,他们又把众多巴勒斯坦人当作人肉盾牌,阻止巴勒斯坦平民撤向南部。哈马斯把火箭发射场、反坦克堡垒,弹药库和恐怖活动指挥中心等等建在医院、幼儿园和人口稠密的居民区。相反,以色列为了减少巴勒斯坦平民的伤亡,总要在空袭前提醒巴勒斯坦平民撤离,或者打空爆弹警告,十分钟后才用实弹摧毁哈马斯大楼。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在这种情况下,如果对哈马斯的攻击造成了对平民的误伤,这账能算到以色列头上吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">按照白左们的这种逻辑,二战时美国是不是压根就不应该向日本扔原子弹杀死近十万“无辜的”日本平民,迫使日本投降,而应该牺牲上百万美军士兵的生命一点点攻占日本本土。从而结束二战呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">哈马斯栽赃给以色列不奇怪,而发达国家的左派们以及联合国机构的官员们也跟着哈马斯起哄,只能说这些人的“人道”追求已经丧失了最基本的是非标准,已经走向了正义的反面。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">左派们无原则的“人道”要求,真的能为巴勒斯坦平民带来和平吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">非也。恰恰相反,</span></u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">越是放任哈马斯这种无底线的恐怖分子</span><span lang="EN-US">,</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">巴勒斯坦人的噩梦就越没有尽头,停火只会给哈马斯喘息的机会,使他们逃出生天。但只要哈马斯存在一天,他们利用巴勒斯坦人攻击以色列的恐怖活动就不会终止,以色列的反击就一定会伤及更多被哈马斯当作人肉盾牌的巴勒斯坦平民,这种恶性循环就永无止境。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只有当哈马斯被消灭,或以色列国从地图上被抹去,这种循环才会终结。请问充满“人道”情感的激进左派们,你认为是哈马斯这种野蛮的恐怖组织应该被消灭呢,还是文明发达的以色列应该被抹去呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">稍有正常理智的人都明自,只有彻底铲除哈马斯等恐怖组织,巴勒斯坦地区才可能有真正持久的和平,加沙的</span><span lang="EN-US">230</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万巴勒斯坦人才可能获得新生,他们才有机会像生活在以色列国内的</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万阿拉伯穆斯林一样,与犹太人和平共处,生活幸福。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所以,激进左派的所谓“人道主义休战”要求,是不明事理的、没有是非原则的愚蠢、这种要求只会延长巴勒斯坦人和以色列人的痛苦,给这个不安定的世界增添更多的灾难。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“人道”本身是文明的一种象征。但无原则无是非的“人道”不仅是一种错误,更是一场灾难。无原则无是非的“人道”是一种病,是一种文明病。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">前几天读到一篇题为<u>《文明警示钟》</u>的短文。作者“青龙山人”是北京一所著名大学的著名教授</span><span lang="EN-US">..</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文中教授的一些观点振聋发聩。他说</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“<u>左派执政本身,就是对全世界野蛮势力的一个鼓舞。他们是西方文明衰败的代表,他们骨子里就是绥靖派。那些在欧美大街上公开庆祝哈马斯反人类暴行的野蛮人,是他们敞开大门请进来的,也都是他们的宠儿和拥趸。</u>”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他说</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“文明人过度文明,就是自杀。…</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">…光是巴掌大的加沙居然生出二百多万人口,其中大量身强力壮精力过剩的年轻人这一事实,就让人忧心。<u>全世界范围内,都是文明人断子绝孙,走向民族</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">/</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人种灭绝,而野蛮人如野草一般疯长。</span></u><span lang="EN-US">....</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">未来的世界,也许不会是某主义战胜某主义,也不是什么某方压过某方,而是野蛮战胜文明。日益文明</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">萎靡的文明人,最终会被野蛮人所淘汰。”这次哈马斯入侵以色列后对平民的野蛮虐杀,也使欧美社会的一些白左们震惊。法国、德国和英国这些自左泛滥的国家开始驱逐境内公开支持哈马斯的极端移民。美国的一些金融机构和大公司也要求公开哈佛大学那些联署支持哈马斯的学生名单,以便他们在工作录用时鉴别剔除。这些都是好的开始,但还远远不够,这场以色列对哈马斯的战争,是文明与野蛮的战争,是正义与邪恶的战争。每个人都无法置身事外,都会以某种方式选边站,我要说,那些以“人道”为理由的立即停火要求,看起来很高大上,实际上却在帮哈马斯的忙,在制造更大范围、更持久的“人道”灾难。比表面“人道”更重要的是基本的是非。是正义的标准,是人类文明演进的规律。文明世界失去了基本的是非标准,才是真正的灾难。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">完</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转发就是支持,打赏随意。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">欢迎关注“雷歌视角”,帮你挖掘新闻背后的新闻。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">雷歌视角油管频道最新上线</span><span lang="EN-US">: </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClfm_D5GrSVn59znfs8JD1g">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClfm_D5GrSVn59znfs8JD1g</a></p><div style="text-indent: 29px;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-indent: 21.75pt;">请订阅、转发和点赞。谢谢</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">!</span></div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> 补充,经查原文:<br />https://blog.creaders.net/u/31182/202311/474054.html</o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-75301238559179526902023-11-03T21:52:00.007+11:002023-11-03T21:52:47.319+11:00 伟大 光荣 正确的台湾 ——写给国际大话王<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(作者不详,转自微信群)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(一)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾地是中国领土,这是事实之一;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾人就是中国人,这是事实之二;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾的执政者是台湾人选举的,不是大陆委派的,这是事实之三;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾走的是资本主义道路,大陆走的是社会主义道路,这是事实之四;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾的人均</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是大陆的</span><span lang="EN-US">3.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,超出日韩,雄居全亚,也超过美国欧盟,只是弱于卡塔尔、摩纳哥、冰岛这些小锅,这是事实之五;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾下辖</span><span lang="EN-US">19</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个县市的民选首长,</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年来无一个贪腐犯罪记录,这是事实之六;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾所有的民选首长,均向民众公开自己的家庭财产明细及纳税记录,这是事实之七;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾的农民退休费与下台总统一样,这是事实之八;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾所有人看病</span><span lang="EN-US">100%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">免费不算,还提供免费的饮食,这是事实之九;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾的老年人如果居家养老,政府给他的子女发护理工资,这是事实之十;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾人在国际上受到普遍尊敬,</span><span lang="EN-US">170</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多个国家自由出入,免签,这是事实之十一;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾老总统蒋介石办公用毛笔,平时喜欢书法,常用高级宣纸。可是,到了台湾,大陆宣纸没有了,日本产的宣纸不错。他想要进口一些使用,结果被驳回:国家外汇紧缺,宣纸非急需物资,不能使用外汇。这是第十二;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾另一个老总统蒋经国住院,抗议示威者拿着喇叭对病房大喊大叫,骂他是独裁者。身边人看不惯,请求驱离,蒋经国却说:“不要驱离,这是他们的权利,也是权力。我不知道,究竟要我怎么做,他们才满意</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”后来,毅然决然废除国民党一党专制,而且把军队交给国家,把党员清退出军队。这是第十三;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾退休总统马英九过大年,自己在街道摆摊免费给老百姓写春联,而且骑着摩托车送外卖,这是第十四;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾现任总统蔡英文下班回家,自己拎包搭火车,她是老小姐,没有家庭,所以,有的是钱,可是,她一身行头,不超过一个普普通通的家庭妇女,把钱秘密捐献,这是第十五;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾明年就要进行总统选举,现在,各方诸侯摩拳擦掌,跃跃欲试。可是,一律要过这一关:人民政审。把你的个人履历真实展示。家庭财产,全部曝晒。这是第十六;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">说自己伟大、光荣、正确的人,往往渺小、龌龊、错误。如果政党政府,能够不停地向人民鞠躬道歉,承认错误,请求宽恕,人民不评价,历史会判断。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我无意贬低什么,但民众真的需要冷静思考一些问题了:谁是骗子、痞子、混子!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(二)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“台湾问题”是大陆一面之词。台湾有什么问题?答案是:台湾像人一样,很健康,没有问题。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾是东亚地区民主自由的灯塔,是人类“四大自由”原则开花结果的地方。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾的现政权是把台湾人当人看的政权。台湾人的福利待遇,处在当今世界前列。有人说“解放台湾”</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">解放你自己吧!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾的政治文明是当今文明世界、自由世界、民主国家的模版。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾经济是当今世界上,经济最繁荣地区之一。你</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿人月收入不足</span><span lang="EN-US">1000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">元,处于国际绝对贫困线以下,你有什么资格担心台湾人民生活在水深火热之中</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾没有妄议中央,没有封号,没有上访,没有维稳,没有统一思想,没有无边的三公消费,没有天价医疗,没有养老之忧,没有政法委,没有阶级敌人,没有党的军队,没有反党分子,没有党的喉舌,没有威权主义,没有伟大领袖,没有反腐一直在路上,没有官员隐瞒财产,没有接班人,没有紧密团结在以蔡英文同志为核心的党中央周围,没有做梦,没有帝国主义亡我之心不死,没有反党就是反人民,没有认贼作父,没有弯道超车,没有特殊津贴,没有把人分三,六,九等,,,</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">值得特别强调的是台湾没有官媒,舆论工具,老百姓掌控。所以,台湾没有假话,瞎话,空话,套话,废话,屁话,捧话,横话,胡话,狂话,疯话,梦话等等。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">综上所述,台湾没有问题,重要的事情说三遍:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾没有问题!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾没有问题!!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">台湾没有问题!!!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(三)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">《教父》里有句台词:“不要轻易去威胁他人,如果你的威胁无法兑现,你将失去对他人的话语权。”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从“美国军舰若敢穿越台湾海峡,大陆将如何如何”到“美国军舰若敢停靠台湾港口,大陆将如何如何”;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从“如果美国胆敢继续向台湾出售进攻性武器,大陆将会如何如何”到“美国军人胆敢踏上台湾土地,我将如何如何”;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从“美国众议院院长若敢访问台湾,大陆将如何如何”到“台湾总统若敢访问美国,大陆将如何如何”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有人把狠话撂了一大堆,结果人家全做了,如何如何了?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在,就是我写这篇文章的时候,美国现役部队入驻台湾,美国军官训练台湾军队,正大光明、广而告之,说了一大堆大话的“国际大话大王”啊,闻不着,听不见,难道都看不见吗?你又能如何如何?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">要切记,炮弹只有从炮膛里发出才有威慑力,从嘴里发出早晚都是笑话。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">行,就动手;不行,就闭嘴。既不动手,也不闭嘴,像一只寒号鸟,成天呼号,就一种结局</span><span lang="EN-US">:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">武大郎护妻,有心无力!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">西门庆戏莲,愈演愈烈!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">(转自微信群)</span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-33608730292707675012023-11-02T22:29:00.000+11:002023-11-02T22:29:06.402+11:00国运的另一种可能:重估中堂(李克强)<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(作者不详,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">2023-11-01 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">转自电报群)</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(编者按:海外时评人士蔡慎坤在</span><span lang="EN-US">X</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">推荐一篇国内未曾公开的文章,也算是帮助外界更客观更真实了解李克强。)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">没有人会想到,中堂竟然会离开得这么突然,在世的三位前总理,他是最年轻的。朱总理</span><span lang="EN-US">95</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">岁,温总理</span><span lang="EN-US">81</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">岁,他才</span><span lang="EN-US">68</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">岁。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,他游览敦煌,现场民众高喊“总理好”!那时他面容气色甚佳,走路步姿敏捷,谁能想到,还不到两个月,他就走了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">前几天,我差点要去一趟合肥,遗憾没有去成,看到红星路</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">号摆满鲜花和字条,合肥人民排着队鞠躬,很受触动。要是我在合肥,我肯定会去献花,而且会把现场发生的细节都记录下来。很可惜,我错过了一个历史的瞬间。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这两天我的心情很低落,上一次如此郁闷,还是李文亮病逝,我知道很多人跟我一样对中堂的离世感到震惊和悲伤!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这十年对每个人来说都是痛苦的,对中堂尤其痛苦。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,美国驻华大使雷德来到辽宁。彼时的省委书记正是中堂,意气风发,雷德有深厚的汉文功底,中堂则有不错的英文功底,两人相谈甚欢。中堂告诉雷德,他不太相信国内的统计数据,有水分,他观察经济增长有自己的指标,就是“用电量</span><span lang="EN-US">+</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">铁路货运量</span><span lang="EN-US">+</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">银行放贷量”,他认为这三个指标不容易造假。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">雷德很吃惊,他知道这个人将来是要上天庭的。就是没想到他会这么坦诚,而且有那么深的经济学造诣。回去后,他将两人谈话的过程写了下来。</span><span lang="EN-US">2010</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,他们的谈话内容遭维基解密曝光,《经济学人》杂志运用克强指数梳理中国经济,发现相当科学,于是该指标被称为克强指数,这是中堂在国际经济学界享有声誉的开始。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂及其同学,是中国恢复高考后第一批考入北大的学生,是有真才实学的。跟别的高官不太一样,中堂的学位是有含金量的,他的博士论文获得了中国经济学界最高奖“孙冶方奖”,有几个人能做到?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文革时学校停课,同时代的人基本都是去造反,中堂却遇到了被打倒在家的李诚,李诚被誉为桐城牌最后一代学者,从此中堂接受李诚悉心的教导。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂曾回忆这段私塾教育时光,他说,“从李先生的眼神中,我隐约预感到,这个乱世年代行将结束,中华文化繁荣的时代即将开始”。</span><span lang="EN-US">1977</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,就在中堂进入北大法律系的同一年,李诚病逝。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂的预感没有错,随着</span><span lang="EN-US">1978</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年中国改革开放,一个繁荣与复兴的时期终于降临,这也是中国历史上最中兴的</span><span lang="EN-US">40</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,他没想到的是,他会亲眼看到中兴走向终结。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">北大七七级,曾经寄托了一个世代中国人的希望,这批人经历了文革的摧残,却开眼看世界。在中国最高学府求学时,他们遇到的老师,正好是文革后平反的那批民国大学者,这种传承是独一无二的。很多人曾希望,等他们接班了,会带领中国成为一个文明的、开放的、正常的国家。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(中共</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大上的一幕)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">很长时间里,中堂都是接棒第一人,胡总看中的人,就是他。如果不出意外,</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年会是他。可意外还是发生了,如果未来有一天,中国变正常了,我相信历史会在承认江泽民对中国现代化做出重大贡献的同时,对他很不客气。今天中国的改革开放遗产,之所以会被彻底毁掉,就来自于江泽民的自私,正是</span><span lang="EN-US">2007</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年和</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年江泽民带头杯葛,又在曾庆红的极力游说下,做掉了中堂接手的可能性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">本来还有补救机会,可上帝就偏偏爱跟中国开玩笑。令公子</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的车祸让一切都摊牌了,胡锦涛大败,再没有了一丝挽救的可能。所以国运的转折点不是</span><span lang="EN-US">2018</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,而是</span><span lang="EN-US">2012</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年。令是一个祸国殃民的人,他的废柴儿子之死引发官场巨大的风暴,摧毁了胡锦涛的信誉与布局,之后的历史,我们就都看到了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年股灾后,《经济学人》就注意到,中堂已经被边缘化,中国的经济决策大权,不再由总理掌握。《经济学人》是国外最早注意到这一变化的顶级媒体,也代表了这家百年媒体的水准,可它依然错了。错的原因在于,他毕竟不是中国人,无法深谙中国社会的徽妙。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">真实情况是,中堂掌握类似于温总权力的时间只有短短八个月。</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,中堂上任,</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,习近平宣布成立中央全面深化改革领导小组,并自认组长,这意味着国务院的权力开始被分化,中堂开始被边缘化,只不过边缘化的过程还需要时间。因此前三年,中堂还有一点权力,很快就被架空了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">被架空后,中堂并不是什么都不做,他毕竟名义上还是总理,虽然没能改变结果,还是在努力做事,这是理解中堂十年的关键钥匙,不明白这一点,就不可能客观评价中堂。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我可以这么说,中堂是一个好人,一个非常好的老实人。倒霉的是,上帝不爱老实人,上帝喜欢辜负的,恰恰是老实人。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂是共和国历史上最弱势的总理,也是共和国历史上最短命的总理,还是后毛时代以来寿命最短的正国级领导人。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂出生平民,你可能会说,他父亲当过官,是的,当过凤阳县县长,退休前混了个副厅级的安徽地方志办公室副主任。可这又算什么呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在红色出身面前,副厅就是党内农民工。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂在党内没有背景,是靠读书改变命运的,这一切都源自于老邓作出的改革开放决定。这就是为什么中堂毕生忠诚于老邓路线,即便是后来被彻底架空。他依然心心念念改革开放,正如他上任之初所说的,改开是中国最大的红利,</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂的底子是读书人,他原本想做一个学者,从政反而是一场意外。胡总是中堂伯乐,胡总会看上中堂,我觉得是因为他们两人很相似。中堂为人老实,性格柔软,遇事不争,这真的太像胡总了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果中堂成为一把手,可以确定,中国会延续不折腾年代,中国会继续改开路线,中国绝不会开倒车,而他本人,更绝不会到站不下车。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">偏偏他成为了二把手,这个性格就太要命了,在强势进逼下,他只会不断让步,不断后退。一个人的出身是什么,在党内很多时候是决定性的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">与中堂截然相反的,就是</span><span lang="EN-US">Bo</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(薄熙来)。</span><span lang="EN-US">B</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是有傲气的,他属于那类老子就算输了也要输得轰轰烈烈的人,因此哪怕明知机会渺茫,他依然会不顾一切争到底。平民出身的中堂,就做不到。假如中堂是</span><span lang="EN-US">B</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一样的出身、气场及胆魄,两强制衡,党内平衡是有可能实现的,那任期制和七上八下就不会消失。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中堂上任之初是想大干一场的,直到有一天他发现,自己只能背锅。他背了很多锅,有些是应该背的,更多的是强制他背。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他曾力推上海自贸区,希望将上海建设成大陆的香港,并且以上海自贸区为窗口,在中国各地建自贸区,推动中国跟国际进一步接轨,结果失败了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他曾实施棚改货币化安置,是因为棚户区民众生活艰苦,就像贫民窟,他想改造棚户区,让这些人能享受城市化红利,这本是好事。结果遇到了“涨价去库存”,引发房地产暴涨,让中国更加深陷房地产泥潭。不仅棚改实践失败了,还遭受骂名。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那么,涨价去库存是谁搞的呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是鹤总。鹤总是上面首席经济顾问,直接听命上面,骂名则由中堂背。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他普力推互联网金融。本意是中国银行贷款严重偏向央企国企,对民企不公平,互联网金融可以帮助解决中小民企贷款无人问津的局面,结果因为国务院缺乏监管权力,变成了</span><span lang="EN-US"> P2P</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">骗局烂大街。这部分责任,他应该承担。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他鼓励大众创业、万众创新和互联网</span><span lang="EN-US">+</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,很多创业失败的人后来破口大骂,但创业本来就有成败,起码那时的创业环境就是比现在好得多。互联网</span><span lang="EN-US">+</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,则是移动互联网时代的必然选择,无论什么行业,最终都必须互联网</span><span lang="EN-US">+</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,难道你现在能离开移动互联</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他力推简政放权和施政透明,他说对政府,法无授权不可为;对人民,法无禁止即可为。这是“克强经济学”的根本,其核心就是向民间让利,即市场的归市场,社会的归社会,政府的归政府,政府要服务,不要瞎管。结果还是失败了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在中国进入极权后,再没有人提透明施政了,更没有人觉得政府应该放权。相反,民间权利被剥夺殆尽。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他力推</span><span lang="EN-US"> RCER</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">资到他力推</span><span lang="EN-US">RCEP </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">谈判,并签下了</span><span lang="EN-US">RCEP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自贸协议,希望中国经济与世界更加融合,减缓倒车速度,结果还是于事无补。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他曾以法律人的思考,希望香港保持一国两制及普通法优势,结果香港的这些优势就在他眼皮底下被摧毁。他希望中国跟发达国家保持友好关系,结果却只能眼睁睁看着中国跟发达国家关系搞砸,新冷战爆发。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他力推医保药品集中采购,让医保局拥有跟药企谈判的权力,这是正确的,也是世界主要发达国家做法,目的是以尽可能低的价格拿到尽可能优质的药品,让百姓受益。结果在中国又变质了,最后进医保的都是便宜又无效的垃圾国产药,真正有效的进口药被逆淘汰了,他再次挨骂无数。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他反对做大做强国企,希望国退民进,结果改开后民企被收拾最惨,最疯狂的国进民退,就发生在他任内。他做不了太多,只能尽力刹车,疫情前发生过一波针对民企的杀鸡取卵潮,抓了很多人,罚了很多钱,尤其是珠三角长三角的外贸企业,多多少少都有点税务问题,结果还是中堂出来喊停。当然效果并不大,之后又发生了针对民企的整顿风暴,很多企业家不是消声就是逃亡,国家经济到了改开以来最萧条,无论他如何呼喊保护民企,都无济于事。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">三年清零,万民失业。他力推地摊经济,希望能给民众一点喘息,结果刚提出来,就被公开打脸。北京日报说地摊经济不适合北京,央视评论说地摊经济不能一哄而起。等到他卸任后,地摊经济才搞起来,却变成了别人的功劳。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">想起来,上任时他想做的事,基本都失败了,他是一个失败的总理。但他还是在努力做一些事,他力推电信行业提速降费,以前宽带是又贵又慢,是中堂介入后才变成不贵还挺快。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他佩服乔布斯,曾力保微信,力推移动互联网服务。微信是</span><span lang="EN-US">2011</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年出来。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2013-2014</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">正是发展关键期,当时海里很多人要求禁了微信。是他顶住压力,让微信壮大起来,之后就是微信成为中国人生活首选。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">淘宝的送货上门颠覆了传统物流行业,触动太多人利益,海里又有人想禁,又是他顶住压力,让它发展了起来,之后就是村村通驿站成为中国社会日常。如果不是中堂,我们今天可能没有微信用,也没有快递上门。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他不支持清零运动却又改变不了,于是他去云南视察时,就公开不戴口罩。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当全民高呼厉害了我的国,他说中国月均收入不到一千的还有六亿人。新冠疫情爆发时,他第一个到武汉,那时病毒还在肆虐,而且没有特效药,这是需要勇气的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但凡有什么天灾人祸,他总是会去现场,让灾民知道,还有人在关心着他们。讽刺的是,他到灾区的视频,总是被删,似乎有人特别不喜欢他亲民。他离开后,我们再也看不到有人愿意去灾区了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2015</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,他来到深圳,向老邓铜像献花。他说:「不改革开放,只有死路一条」。</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,他又来到深圳,向老邓献花,他深情地说,黄河长江不会倒流,不管国际层面如何变化,不管有什么样的复杂情况,中国开放还是要继续往前推进。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他想做很多事,但最终什么都做不了,就连他在深圳高喊坚持改开的视频,都被全网封杀了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">卸任前几天,他寄语发改委工作人员,希望大家牢牢记住,发展还是我们第一要务,发展动力在于改革。之后,他去跟国办工作人员告别,说了一句耐人寻味的话:人在干,天在看。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他是一个悲情总理,却收获了民心,他离世后民间悼念,是自发的。一来是因为他很清廉,二来是因为他让人同情。他像极了我们普通人,被绝对的权威欺辱,却只能一忍再忍,并希望尽力而为。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他没有什么野心,也没有什么权欲。他总是说:发展是解决我国一切问题的基础和关键。他还很开明,不折腾不斗争,这样的人,能够共情人民的疼痛与酸楚,是最适合做仁宗的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那些说这个国家的制度就是这样,谁来都一样的人,都是智商不及格的,大概率是打鸡血的蠢货。历史当然没有如果,但如果</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年是中堂上来,中国肯定会比现在好很多很多。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">也许还要数十年,中国才能变成一个相对正常的国家,那时已经没有多少人记得中堂了,但我知道历史会记住他。因为他代表了国运的另一种可能性,他是现代中国最需要的那类仁宗,只是没想到会迎来武帝。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,年仅</span><span lang="EN-US">67</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">岁的他裸退,比他年纪更大的人,却留了下来。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">27</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,他意外离世,结果还是上不了新闻联播头条。在严厉的审查下,人民的哀悼竟悲壮如冲塔。他说长江黄河不会倒流,其实,早在十几年前,当他被杯葛掉时,长江黄河,就已经在倒流了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(转自电报群)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-80880273611552971832023-10-20T06:01:00.006+11:002023-10-20T06:44:51.122+11:00“轰炸加沙医院”蒙骗了全世界?!<p> <span style="color: #404040; font-family: "MicrosoftYaHei Bold", MicrosoftYaHei, Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", STHeiti, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft Yahei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 38px;">真相大白!以大使要求联合国秘书长就加沙医院的谴责向以色列道歉</span></p><div class="post_info" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #999999; font-family: Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", STHeiti, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft Yahei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: 1; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">2023-10-19 13:43:54 来源: <a href="https://www.163.com/dy/media/T1624462712573.html" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #999999; text-decoration-line: none;">老马拉车莫少装</a> <img src="https://static.ws.126.net/163/f2e/dy_media/dy_media/static/images/ipLocation.f6d00eb.svg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; margin: -7px 0px 0px 6px; vertical-align: top;" />广西 <a class="post_jubao" href="https://www.163.com/special/0077jt/tipoff.html?title=%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8%E5%A4%A7%E7%99%BD%EF%BC%81%E4%BB%A5%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%BF%E8%A6%81%E6%B1%82%E8%81%94%E5%90%88%E5%9B%BD%E7%A7%98%E4%B9%A6%E9%95%BF%E5%B0%B1%E5%8A%A0%E6%B2%99%E5%8C%BB%E9%99%A2%E7%9A%84%E8%B0%B4%E8%B4%A3%E5%90%91%E4%BB%A5%E8%89%B2%E5%88%97%E9%81%93%E6%AD%89" style="box-sizing: inherit; 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color: #666666; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2023%2F1019%2Fc548ced1j00s2rh8x001ad000gw00crp.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></p><p id="26D499KT" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">以色列驻联合国大使要求联合国秘书长就加沙医院事件的谴责向以色列道歉<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />“加沙提供的任何信息都是谎言,只是哈马斯想让你听到的‼️<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />在今天的安理会讨论中,我谴责联合国秘书长在没有询问婴儿杀手恐怖分子的情况下就相信了他们的谎言!秘书长忘记了,他必须先查清事实,然后才敢谴责我们。但也许当谈到以色列时,其他规则也适用?!<strong style="box-sizing: inherit;">我要求秘书长立即道歉。耻辱!”</strong><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></p><p id="26D499KU" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">全球媒体在还没有看到证据的情况下就指责以色列轰炸加沙医院,炸死500人。可是从头到尾都的源头信息都是巴勒斯坦的媒体说的,不到24小时就穿帮了。根据巴媒自己发布的医院视频,炸弹造成的巨大的大坑在哪在哪呢?那死亡的500人尸体到哪去了?</p><p class="f_center" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center;"><img src="https://nimg.ws.126.net/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fdingyue.ws.126.net%2F2023%2F1019%2Ffaf3cf55j00s2rh8y004vd000u000vsp.jpg&thumbnail=660x2147483647&quality=80&type=jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; max-width: 100%;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></p><p id="26D499L1" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">连俄罗斯的媒体都看不下去了,转发并间接承认医院本身没有受到袭击,受损区域只是停车场。<br style="box-sizing: inherit;" /></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><strong data-type="dy" style="box-sizing: inherit;"></strong></p><p id="26D592SP" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">与此同时,以色列方面公布了哈马斯特工的通话录音,证明医院停车场的爆炸是由一枚失火的 PIJ 火箭引起的,录音也告诉我们,这事儿是巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织干的。</p><p id="26D499L3" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">最后,还是想再问一下,500人的尸体在哪儿呢?</p><p id="26D499L4" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">这么小规模的爆炸怎么可能造成500人死亡?</p><p id="26D499L5" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">为什么到现在巴方都拿不出尸体的照片和视频?</p><p id="26D499L6" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">所谓的惨案在哪儿?</p><p id="26D499L7" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 34px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">为什么所谓的500人死亡的惨案,医院整体保存的却很完整?</p></div><div class="creative_statement" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #888888; font-family: Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", STHeiti, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft Yahei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 40px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">声明:个人原创,仅供参考</div><div class="post_statement" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #888888; font-family: Arial, "Hiragino Sans GB", STHeiti, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Microsoft Yahei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: 22px; margin: 40px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 40px;">原文: https://www.163.com/dy/article/IHDROLUG0552BNOQ.html</div></div>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-37500455486602504552023-09-15T20:05:00.000+10:002023-09-15T20:05:00.781+10:00天佑:警惕大众思想的极化——彪悍大妈掐住男生的脖子的行为<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自微信群)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">看到一个视频</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">火车上,一群人在围攻一个年轻人,其中,一个彪悍的大妈掐住那个男生的脖子声嘶力竭的喊</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“我就是不允许你说我们中国不行</span><span lang="EN-US">!</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”、“你就是其他国家的舔狗”、“不行你就滚出我们中国”之类的话。我不知道那个男生说了什么,听那意思可能也就是对现状有些不满,或者是说了别的国家的某些优点。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这问题就来了,即便是那个男生真的说了什么大逆不道的话,那也是一个国民在对现状表达不满,这是他的权利;即便是他说了别的国家的优点,那也是针对我们的问题而来。这些乘客有什么权利采用这样的手段对他行使暴力</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果他的话过分了,超越了法律的边界,那自有法律制裁,什么时候轮到你们这些所谓的爱国者动用私刑了</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">看着视频,我对整个车厢里的那些盲从者感到悲哀,这种事情你们就不能制止一下,反而推波助澜</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那个大妈再爱国,也无权使用语言暴力,肢体暴力,这个道理不懂吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当然,我也为那个男生感到悲哀。他太不了解中国了,更不了解现状。我们所处的环境,是一种非常极化的状态,太多的人因为种种原因心里充满戾气,而且,他们被仇恨教育、集体主义教育已经固化了思维模式。国家强大、科技领先、人民幸福已经成了一种绝对的政治正确,在这种环境里,你不能有一点抱怨。尤其是在公开场合,你绝对不可以呛了爱国者们的气管子,否则,你就会遭到他们的围攻。为什么不能学会保护一下自己呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在这个极化的社会,在公共交通工具上,想以理服人本身就是一种将自己置于危险的行为。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我当然也为大妈悲哀,听到别人说话不顺而就上前呵斥乃至掐脖子,这本身就是违法行为,大妈和那节车厢参与围攻的乘客难道不知道吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">幸亏现在“伤害中华民族感情”还未正式入法,否则,大妈们会更加的肆无忌惮,甚至有可能会动用私刑。大家还记得某革吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所有的暴力都是以正确和捍卫的名义进行的,所有的流血和生命的丧失也都是因为大家理解的革命的内涵不同而已。这个教训现在看来,我们这个民族并没有汲取。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">人如果被激发了人性的恶,互相伤害起来那就会没有止境。像火车上的这种事情,它的发生是偶然的吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">绝对不是。这是整个社会思想极化的表象而已,而社会思想极化的根本原因除了仇恨教育、集体主义教育等原因,经济的问题也不容忽视。但经济下行,人们都烦躁的很,坏情绪充填了生活。这没办法,几乎所有人都负有债务,看不到前途,对生活感到渺茫,特别是那三年使得很多人抑郁,很多人脾气越来越暴躁,加之没有出口,使得怨气越来越重。一旦遇到不顺,情绪立马失控。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">心理学有个词叫“尖叫效应”:在满是人群的街道中,如果有人突然歇斯底里地尖叫,往往能快速吸引人们的注意力,博取眼球。尖叫效应在网络时代被运用的更加广泛,几乎所有的爱国大</span><span lang="EN-US">V</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,爱国自媒体,都在使用模糊重点、突出争议、突破底线等方式快速引发关注、指责批评甚至集体恐慌从而获得流量。而我们的民众并不知道他们只是为了利益,却不知不觉的被他们所绑架,浸染,思想在不知不觉中发生极化。当我们自己也开始尖叫时,情绪就不在自己的掌控范围之内了。就像这位大妈,她当时无论怎样已经出现了情绪失控,但这种失控会引发什么后果呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">她当时已经没有理智去思考这个问题了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我不认为大妈真的是爱国,她只是很烦,听到男生说了一些国家存在的问题理解不了,甚至是听到了某些关于国外的,有点产生了应激反应而已,于是就发作了。但是,这种愤怒的情绪会将自己甚至那个男生推向何处,可能她并未意识到。从法律上讲,她这种行为应该是属于扰乱公共秩序。是的,哪怕你以爱国的名义也不行,何况你还动手</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我不知道后来乘警是如何平息这件事的</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">对大妈仅仅警告那绝对是便宜她了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这件事让我很是忧心,现在整个社会大众思想越来越偏激,越来越缺乏宽容,而一些所谓的爱国者又在某种纵容下,变得越来越具有攻击性和排他性,整个社会的气氛非常像是二战前的日本。民粹正在主导这个社会,这极其危险。需要及时化解,一旦是出现控制上的薄弱环节,这种极化的思想就会导致行为上的不受控,那么,后果将是毁灭性的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所以,我个人以为,我们一定要警惕大众思想的极化,警惕民粹坐大。举国体制有一定的组织优势,但也有一定的劣势。由于教育的限制和传媒的信息单一化,民众大比例的三观,还被近代侮辱历史叙事和美日欧围堵我们冷战思维影响,很容易在自卑和自负之间两极徘徊,加之经济下行,民众怨气无法得到释放,但若只允许一种声音,甚至继续允许所谓的爱国者肆意妄为,就容易走向内部揪斗和对外战争的道路。我们经不起折腾了,还是好好引进外资,好好接点订单赚钱,过个好日子吧。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">环境逼仄,发声不易</span><span lang="EN-US">;</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">打赏随喜,拜托转发。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“你的每次赞赏都是对我最大的支持”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">某作家</span> <span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的赞赏码</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-8653844588790525712023-08-28T17:05:00.005+10:002023-08-29T10:17:50.428+10:00郑经卫:数字里的川普(川普的支持率如何了?)<p> <span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">(转自微信群)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">迄今为止,我曾经担心有没有足够的资料每天一篇文章,现在则是强迫自己不能每天多写——已经是周六了,我还没来得及讨论完周三的事情呢。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日,没有了川普与卡尔森共和党首场辩论,</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小时播放不到</span><span lang="EN-US">1300</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万次,而他们俩在推特上的、完全同一时间的</span><span lang="EN-US">45</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">分钟的访谈,</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小时播放量超过</span><span lang="EN-US">2.5</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿次,是塔克老东家的将近二十倍!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就连号称美国春晚的玫瑰碗,不过是川普和卡尔森的一半!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这种规模的流量,塔克·卡尔森据说能收到</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">百万的广告费,而且据说,收这笔钱并不违反福克斯电视台对他的雪藏计划!老狐狸默多克的合同,百密一疏了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">川普的体重、身高,被公布了,因为</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日晚上他去乔治亚州监狱履行报到的程序。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在同一天,他重返了推特,发出了三年后的第一条推文,那是他自己准备的、去完成报到程序时用的大头照。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“不干总统已三年”,他依然有超过</span><span lang="EN-US">8700</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万的订阅,一张“干涉选举!永不投降!”的照片,带来了超过</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万转发、超过</span><span lang="EN-US">160</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万的点赞、和超过</span><span lang="EN-US">2.1</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(今天</span><span lang="EN-US">2.4</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)亿次的阅读!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那些说拜登在三年前得票更高的人,为什么不出来证明一下那些投票人真实存在呢?作为在位的总统,拜登的订阅刚过</span><span lang="EN-US">3700</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,怎么看都是我说的、草根对精英的三七开、二八开嘛!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">川普的麻烦,在于现在乔治亚州的案子,因为这里是共和党人建制派在搞事情。更何况,如果在这里被定罪,接任总统后也无权特赦自己。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不过,我倒是替川普想到一个解决问题的办法:如果在这里被判罪,干脆就在监狱里办公!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我相信,像监狱这种地方,有许多事情,不可能</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小时被全世界监督的。这个意义上来说,川普真的经过不公平的审判而一边坐牢一边掌管美国,恐怕反而是监狱方面招架不起那种无时无刻都必须生活在聚光灯下的压力。美国有联邦法,要求全美国调动所有资源,保证在任总统活着而且可工作。这可不是一个简单的任务哟……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只要我不尴尬,尴尬的就是你们这群窃国的贼!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我估计,川普心里说不定也在想,恐怕也得评估这个选择了!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">别忘了,这些人的目标,只是干扰选举。避免诉讼和选举的对立,是解套的办法之一。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在替拜登火中取栗的乔治亚州检察官,她未来肯定是会遗臭万年的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">同样可以确定的是,一旦川普当上总统,无论是从白宫还是乔治亚州的监狱,他的复仇,不会再有任何一丝心慈手软——包括对当年海外介入选举的力量,川普也肯定不会忘记雪耻的!别忘了,川普最大的计划是伊万卡,他所有的工作都是在为伊万卡做铺垫,而现在,伊万卡对政治彻底不感兴趣了,这个损失,对川普来说,无可挽回!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大家知道川普一直是房地产大亨,几十亿美元的身家,教子有方(人家的孩子们没有毒瘾、敢长时间站在聚光灯下)、客串过电影……可以说,似乎也算克己复礼兢兢业业的一生。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">恐怕他从来没有想到,他过完</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">岁生日又两周后才出生的南非的、一个穷人家的孩子,经过加拿大来到美国后,变成了世界首富,并且通过斥资</span><span lang="EN-US">440</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿美元,还给了川普今天一个公平——当然,人家怎么做,一半以上首先还是为了挣钱,为了保证自己的财富继续增加。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">说一句“钱是好东西”,有问题吗?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而且,这种水平的“最高级最完美”的美国梦,当然需要现金的数额来背书来证明!这,没毛病吧!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其实,很多说“钱是魔鬼”的人,往往只希望自己有钱不建议别人挣钱,这样他们就有了相对优势。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最后,川普的支持率如何了?超过</span><span lang="EN-US">70%</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的共和党人认为,他根本就不应该参加共和党内的初选辩论!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他是个好老头儿!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">旅美学者</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">郑经卫</span> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">26</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日<br /><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(附录:这是川普回归推特后的第一个帖子:永不屈服!)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1694886846050771321?s=46<o:p></o:p></span></p><br /></span><p></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-43884765820873017392023-08-22T16:22:00.003+10:002023-08-22T16:22:24.797+10:00颜纯钩:长痛不如短痛:中共崩溃后,中国会怎么样?<p><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 29px;">(转自颜纯钩脸书</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 29px;">)</span> </p><p><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有网友留言,说中共崩溃是长痛与短痛的问题,这也正是我的想法。中共在是长痛,中共崩溃是短痛,长痛短痛都要痛,宁肯短痛也不要长痛。中共在,怎么改都是中共独裁,中共不在,中国人才有起死回生的机会,两相比较,短痛是要接受的痛,长痛是不可接受的痛。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共崩溃后,中共政权就散了,地方政府有的也垮了,有的可能维持。中央没有钱拨下来,各省都是赤字,日子难过。中央失踪,行政没有方向,地方政府没钱,也没有权威,民众不会服从,社会必将大乱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">更糟糕的是,中共统治七十多年,灌输一套违背人伦常理的价值观,社会恶质化严重,有道德理想与承担的人少,无视法纪损人利己的人多,要凝聚社会共识﹑追求理想国体的难度更大,这个过程需要多长时间,没有人知道。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共崩溃一定基于国家财政崩溃,到那时,大量退休金谁来发放?医保如何维持?公安武警因欠薪无法执勤,社会治安靠谁维护?政府失去管治能力,社会失序,天下大乱,百姓如何自保?这些问题,想起来就令人心焦。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但中共崩溃后,也并非一点好处都没有。首先,没有中共的独裁统治,人民最先得到的是自由,国家所有制不存在,个体经济自由生发。市场自我调节,有需求就有供应,有生产销售就有循环,市场机制会最先恢复,这是人民休养生息的条件。没有中央,没有政府,没有军队,市场一样存在,经济活动照样进行,甚至会比中共崩溃前更有活力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其次,中共崩溃后,独裁管制不存在,市场出现前所未有的空位,一定有不怕死敢冒险的外资,包括港资台资再度进入,这也为乱世带来一定的生机。大陆本身的私企,没有了政府的压迫与剥削,对未来寄予新的希望。有人开店,就有人求职,有人开厂,就有人打工,有新产品就有销售,有市场就有资金投入,有收入就有再生产的可能。经济慢慢修复,社会机器重启,虽然过程痛苦,但充满希望。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">再次,庞大的政府机构要么消失,要么大量缩编,省下巨额行政开销,地方政府容易应付紧绌的财政。中国人不要养大量贪官污吏﹑皇亲国戚与政府冗员﹑不要照顾退休老干部,不用养军队武警公安,不用花钱维稳,更不用花巨额公帑去「支援世界革命」。那时地方政府的税收,全部都可以用到公众身上,当然,前提是建立有效的公众监督。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最后,中共崩溃后,中国人瞻望前景,有台湾的民主制度与港英的法治作现成参照,大量从西方学成回国的专业人士,以切身体验为政治改革呐喊助威,这都是中国走向民主体制的有利条件。沿海省份需要资源与市场的幅地,内陆省份需要对外通商,长期分裂不利于经济发展与文化交流,因此不同省市之间通过谈判而合作的机会还是存在的。当其时,台港制度优势将再度向北幅射,为中国的民主进程再作贡献。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">最理想的状态,是中央崩溃后,共产党宣布解散(如俄国</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,地方政府与军队中的有识之士,抛弃社会主义体制,站在地方利益的立场,管理好地方事务,安邦恤民,慢慢过渡,开放党禁报禁,筹备各级民主选举,那样的过度,也不是完全不可能。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当然,要经歷一段无政府状态,时间有长有短,动乱有轻有重,有的规模小,有的时间长。各省市之间也会有矛盾冲突,互相之间有关防,又要做生意,搞得不好开战也有可能。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这都是一个过程,即使发生武装冲突,谁都无法消灭对方,只是互相消耗,很不合算,因此最终仍要和谈了事。和谈的结果,便是利益均分,互相制约,之后可否在共同利益基础上,达致某种形式的联邦,那就要看中国人的造化了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">唯一可以阻止中共崩溃的,还是中国人自己。要是社会坏到头了,中国人还是选择黑压压跪倒在政府门前,年轻人在家裡躺平,中产麻醉自己,退休老人準备吃草,那中共当然不会崩溃,那就是长痛之局,那就是中国人自己选择的未来。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共崩溃是大概率事件,不管你愿不愿意﹑信或不信,崩溃总会发生。崩溃后不会风平浪静,要经过一段长时间的磨难,最终重头收拾旧河山,打造一个新中国。或许,大中华版图从此分裂成若干个小国家,小国也没什么不好,只要百姓安居乐业,小国就小国(好像立陶宛</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,可能比大国更容易管理。但出于长期经济利益,小国仍要寻找互利的模式,到时又是另外的选择了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共崩溃最令人无法想像的,是那些核弹头怎么办?最终会落到谁手上,他又会如何安置那些灭绝人性的武器?这真不敢想了,是福不是祸,是祸躲不过,且留待歷史去见证。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">天下兴亡匹夫有责,面对如许可悲的国运,一介文人忧心忡忡,有时未免想多了。面对所有无解的难题,除了中共崩溃,我不知道中国还有什么出路,香港还有什么起死回生的机会,台湾还有什么安全的保障。一厢情愿也罢,胡思乱想也罢,以上推测就是我目前的认知,对与错不在乎,我只希望能活到验证自己看法的那一天。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(转自颜纯钩脸书:</span> <span lang="EN-US">https://www.facebook.com/nganshunkau/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-48578078652873126142023-08-15T10:04:00.001+10:002023-08-15T10:04:42.352+10:00方方:大势已去,面对财政枯竭的危机,中共各种手段疯狂敛财<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">作者:方方</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> 2023-08-12</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大势已去。但是有些话还是要说说的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有人说泄洪区不是一种地理,而是一种地位。没错,这次河北泄洪更是用事实证明了,决定洪水流向的,不是地理上的海拔落差,而是承受灾情的人们在权力等级上的落差。需要提醒大家的是,这次泄洪的操作,已经体现出了政府在面对危机时的最新行事风格,在即将到来的各种危机中,同样的风格会直接影响到大家的利益。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这次泄洪时,政府的操作若形容得粗鲁点,就象尿床一样——半夜悄悄把水放了。然后代价是无数在权力格局中处于较低地位的人,家破人亡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在面对由恒大、碧桂园、中植系等企业爆雷为代表的金融危机,他们处理的手法,是不让破产,把无法处理的坏帐“拖”下去,把危机冻结在金融系统之内,风险是谁在承担?是银行,也就是把钱存在银行的普通储户们。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">面对财政枯竭的危机,我们现在看得到的,是中央政府加强了对社会的管控,堵住了想呼救想发声的嘴,然后地方政府通过各种手段疯狂敛财。从谁身上敛?从居住在权力格局中低海拔地区的人身上。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这是另一种泄洪,是政府正在悄悄的把财政危机的洪水,泄到权力的低海拔区。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">为什么现在大搞医疗反腐?在这样的匮乏帝国内部,知识分子,靠技术吃饭的各种专业工作者,长期处于权力的低海拔区。财政危机的洪水,当然要悄悄往他们身上泄。不论你是怎么赚的钱,不论你那些“灰色收入”当初是怎样公开的秘密,全行业的通行做法,你积攒的财富都需要交出来。养肥的猪,要宰了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">民企的第一桶金,几乎都是经不住“倒查三十年”的。在改开初期,在许多领域,政府都没来得及完善规章制度,当时有许多政府做法和民间做法,都是在“大胆尝试”、“勇于创新”的口号激励下出现的,严格说来就是违规操作。医疗产业化,教育产业化,让无数富豪涌现。同时也留下了无数违规操作赚取第一桶金的“黑历史”。这些所谓的中产富豪,靠技术吃饭,自认为“没有问题”的人,多是离官场稍远,对政治风险不敏感,深信政府各种宣传的人,他们的资产几乎全部放在国内,他们的人生规划也基本全在国内,就算把子女送到海外留学,他们想的也是让孩子未来回到中国继承家业,走父辈已经走通的专业道路。他们,就是圈养多年,此时要被屠宰的肥猪。以他们为榜样,试图通过读书、考试,通过学得一门专业技能,进入在改开时代已经被前辈们开辟好的职业上升通道,谋求稳定收入的城市小中产们,就象围在猪食槽边嗷嗷叫唤的小猪崽。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">洪水悄然上涨。政府面对的财政危机,正悄然演变为一场覆盖全国的财产权利风险之潮。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">普通人从单位获得工资的财产权利,有风险了。当然,欠薪频繁发生远非近年才有的事。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">普通人从银行取出存款的财产权利,有风险了。在河南村镇银行,这风险是集中爆发的,未来在包括国有四大行在内的中共国银行,它极有可能以普遍限制提款额度的形式出现。买保本理财有本金消失的风险,买黄金有金条掺假的风险,买期房有烂尾的风险,现在大家都知道了。你勤勤恳恳工作几十年,只因家底丰厚,也被“倒查三十年”,抓住你早期随大流的违规,后来随大流的领年终奖分单位“小金库”,按行规收各种法定工资以外的“奖金”,把你多年积蓄统统罚没,这种财产权利风险,你有没有想到过?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">洪水是无孔不入的。当它汹涌而至,淹没所有低洼地区,你只有逃往高处,才能避过浩劫。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">政府正在把自身面临的财政危机,把历史积欠构成的天量债务,悄然转化为一场淹没所有普通人财产权利的洪水。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这场隐秘的泄洪,已经让你的财产权利浸入一片由特权暴行构成的污泥浊水中。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今后,我们若还想像泄洪之前那样活着,考验的,将是你在这泥沼中的思维能力,是你徒手攀爬到权力海拔相对较高处的能力。当你的工资不是你的工资,你的存款不是你的存款,你的房子不是你的房子,你的积蓄不是你的积蓄时,当每一个原本天经地义的“是”,都需要你额外的争取才有可能得到确认时,维护最基本、最日常的财产权利就会成为你生活的主题。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大家好自为之吧</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">作者:方方</span><span lang="EN-US"> 2023-08-12<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(转自微信群,标题是编者加上)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-218019011665086262023-08-10T17:38:00.002+10:002023-08-10T17:38:25.744+10:00厨爹: 此轮医疗系统反腐会有成效吗?<p> (作者:厨爹 2023-08-09 转自微信群 )</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所谓的反腐风暴终于烧到这个国家最腐败的一个领域</span><span lang="EN-US">--</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">公办医院了,我之所以说这是这个国家最腐败的系统,那是因为这个国家所有系统都腐败,而公办医院因为体制的问题,封闭性强,每天涉及到钱,监管又缺乏,所以,是捞钱是最容易的</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不是最多的,跟石油系统等重灾区比起来,医院那些人捞的钱都让别的系统的人笑话</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。据说现在所有医院院长、药剂科、重点科室负责人都战战兢兢,谁是准备进去。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他们如此紧张我并不吃惊,可以说,这活该。他们以前太猖狂了,可以这样讲,现在的医疗系统已经没救了,所有公办医院,我是说所有,院长、主任、医生、护士都疯狂敛财,这里固然有少部分医生护士是有底线的,但是,如果不是技术尖子主要劳动力,基本都会被排挤被边缘化。再说一句,你不贪,你在哪个圈子里根本混不下去;你不贪,人家都会把你当贼一样防着。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大家知道吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在那些知名大医院的科主任专家们,现在的婚姻状态基本上是有四任,第一任大学女同学;第二任貌美小护士;第三任妖娆女医代;第四任清纯女学生。这还是婚姻,至干私生活,那基本上都是皇帝一般,至干钱,对于这些主任专家们钱还是个问题吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这两天有个新闻上了热搜,云南某医院一台直线加速器回扣</span><span lang="EN-US">1600</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,大家都惊叹医院院长非常黑,对这样的舆论,我只能嘿嘿一笑。为什么</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他不过是个背锅侠而已,这</span><span lang="EN-US">1600</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万的回扣,是一个窝案,我敢说,在这个案子里,从市领导到卫健委主任以及相关拨款单位,甚至省里,谁都有份儿。我为什么这么说</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因为这么高额采购,普通地市的院领导根本做不了主,甚至主管副市长都做不了主。那么,这个决策链现在获利</span><span lang="EN-US">1600</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万,院长能拿多少</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他要敢独吞,明天就完蛋了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">医疗系统之所以变成现在这个样子,板子还真不能完全打到医疗系统本身。在我看来,更多的是逼良为娼。没有任何一位年轻医生进入医院就想一身铜臭的,没有任何一个专家是想整天出席各种会议给各种领导当家奴的</span><span lang="EN-US">;</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">每个下半夜都还在手术室奋斗的医生,每个一天看</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个门诊病人的医生都不想最后成为大酱缸里被挑出来的那只蛆。在我看来,很多问题都是用人的逆淘汰机制和产业化所导致。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在医疗系统,体制的弊端比其他系统表现得更突出。尽管有处方权的医生可以拿回扣,但是,他们不过是这里权力最小的那一部分,一个药品或者一款器材、医疗器械或是设备等从入院到推广、销售,无不需要</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上下打点</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。壁如一款新药,科主任打通了,药剂科要不要打点</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">药剂科同意了,医生用不用还是问题。据我所知,医药公司或者是器械耗材公司,那都是要约约上供,然后由院长或者科主任具体分配的。你不讲规矩</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">下月就停掉你。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">医疗腐败不是简单的腐败问题,它是这个国家权力直通底部这种结构的直观体现而已。医疗系统的问题其实就是权力的再分配,只是因为它时刻与民众面对面,大家感受得更强烈一些而已。其实,根源还在于目前的用人体系和医疗产业化。只要院长书记不是组织部任命的,医院不是赚钱单位,目前的大部分问题都可以得到解决,在目前这种制度下,作为利益集团,医院随着人数变多,资源开始变得紧张,为了维系自身营养,必然开始寻求繁殖、扩张。这是一种必然,制度不改,你就是把所有院长科主任都抓了也改变不了腐败的问题。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">资源的分配权是造成医疗腐败的直接原因,中国医疗腐败与特权有直接的关系,我们知道医疗双轨制,高干病房占用了大量的资源。某些医疗资源被人为地集中在大城市或者是级别高的医院更是腐败产生的重要原因。特权决定垄断,垄断导致腐败。此外,医院身份定位混乱,投入不足;医疗补偿机制扭曲,以药养医;卫生部门职能不明,管办不分也是造成医疗系统腐败的重要原因。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">看了一个资料,从年初到现在全国已经抓了一百五十多个院长,这能从根本上遏制医疗腐败的问题吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">答案是不能。逻辑很简单,医院是独立王国吗</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果不是,制定目前这种医保政策的,包干制治病政策的又是谁</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">能决定生能评上什么职称的是谁</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">造成医院无序扩张的又是谁</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">医生年薪制又是谁制定的</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">医院的基建项目,大型设备的采购是医院一言堂就能定的</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">归根到底还是制度问题,在没有建立起一套可行有效的制度前,针对公立医院这种似企非企,似体制非体制,似公益却盈利的怪打胎,任何形式的反腐都是治标不治本,或者说连治标都算不上。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自从医疗市场化后,逼良为娼的事情越来越多了;</span><span lang="EN-US">DRGs/DIP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以后,想要选择好一点的治疗检查,需要找关系了;</span><span lang="EN-US">YQ</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">过后,基层医护人员的委屈更多了,很多地方甚至降薪了……于是,系统内部的腐败更严重了,为什么?真想动真格的,改改目前的医疗产业化,改改现在有名无实的医保制度实现免费医疗,改变医院院长书记由组织部任命的晋升体制,改改目前的学阀制度,抓几个医学大佬试试</span><span lang="EN-US">?</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果不改,我啥也不说了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">环境逼仄,发声不易;打赏随喜,拜托转发。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFAdRYfLpmBeT5MyUGd3TQGYo5PTqzRhPRH1Y1vRRP7Vx6EEFgwSYI-658NqQLi9QG55a7klMTm4zjOsBxJ_jFoak8rDPyjpUrX7vTS4k07TfSpL4j7w3_J5v5VbqGzKkuUH5W93vD45VgVEaCnNCHA1VfmbkKMQqTeEIeD14lB_Qf6XYloKxrWsYbLQ/s266/03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="266" data-original-width="261" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFAdRYfLpmBeT5MyUGd3TQGYo5PTqzRhPRH1Y1vRRP7Vx6EEFgwSYI-658NqQLi9QG55a7klMTm4zjOsBxJ_jFoak8rDPyjpUrX7vTS4k07TfSpL4j7w3_J5v5VbqGzKkuUH5W93vD45VgVEaCnNCHA1VfmbkKMQqTeEIeD14lB_Qf6XYloKxrWsYbLQ/s1600/03.jpg" width="261" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-75989094938686690332023-07-31T06:53:00.001+10:002023-07-31T06:53:40.324+10:00(转发)王毅在外交部的内部讲话(请勿外传)<p> <span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(编注:此文近日在网络广为流传。窃以为“源自生活高于生活”的文学创作,仅供参考)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><br /></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大家今天都挺喜庆的样子,我既高兴,也不高兴,高兴的是外交部单纯了,对秦刚的清理工作正在进行,不高兴的是路线斗争还没有分出胜负,斗争将是长期的,大家要做好充分准备。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我们与秦刚的斗争看起来是党内派系斗争,本质上是路线斗争,党内右倾幼稚病又犯了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我要说,战狼精神,才是我党的外交精神。网络上大家都看到,秦刚读宪法,他为什么不学习党章,党章才是中共治国的根本,党必须在国之上,我党讲什么,讲斗争,我们最终的目标是消灭资本主义,人类命运共同体,必须由我们主导。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在的问题是美国要不要承认中国是大国强国的国际地位,要不要与中国分权?打开世界地图,南亚,非洲,美国的后院南美许多国家都在我们的外交统战的势力范围之内,我们的版图已超过了美国西方的势力范围,今天的普丁也不得不承认,中俄关系现在我们是老大,他成为二弟,小弟是金正恩同志,我们一个小金,就稳住了东亚韩国日本,我们的普丁同志,正在帮助我们与西方战斗,我们与俄罗斯当然要上不封顶,你们知道,秦刚说了什么,说中俄关系要有底线,他说的有什么意思呢,没意思,就是要与我们话风不一样,这是说给西方听的,让他们高兴,伤害了谁,当然伤害了我们俄罗斯同志。最令我们不可容忍的是他在联合国联大会议投票谴责俄罗斯侵略,甚至鼓动有关外交人员,认为中国可以支持乌克兰收复</span><span lang="EN-US">1991</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年时的领土。他当外长才几个月,就完全</span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">站在了西方一边。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">西方世界都知道,乌克兰在为他们打仗,秦刚却故意不知道,俄罗斯人是在帮我们打仗,打击了欧洲,欧洲就会更加依赖我们,美国人打不下去的时侯,我们最大最好的机会就来了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这些伟大成就不是解放军打出来的,也不是中南海书生们写出来的,是我们外交部同志们多少年努力的结果,到了习主席这个时侯,水到渠成。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美国军方为什么要与我们建立联络?美国国务</span><span lang="EN-US">Q</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">为什么要到中国来求和?他们背后的资本主义势力不干了,他们顶不住,我们顶得住,美国经济下行就大乱,我们怎么乱都能压下去,六零年那样的饥荒,八九年几百万人上街,惊涛骇浪我们安然无事。关键是我们能做到不惜一切代价,只要我们不惜一切代价,就能迫使美国对我们屈服。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我们的人口不够了,是不是,没关系,我们的大后方在非洲,我们为什么要花巨资培养非洲留学生,将来我们可以组建非洲部队,我们指挥官说中国话,就可以指挥非洲士兵。这些都是我们外交战线的巨大成就。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">政治局委员,其实也都是花瓶,现在只有我一个人敢在老大面前说真话,为什么,我们外交部比解放军还有实力,我们不仅在对敌斗争的最前线,我们还在扩大大后方。如果打持久战,我们必胜。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我们可以对西方坚壁清野,我们扛得住,打仗我们也扛得住,我们为什么寄希望美国人民,因为美国的战争死人太多,人民就会造反,美国急于在朝鲜休战,越南打不下去,连阿富汗都打败了,为什么,美国性质决定的,我们外交战线更不要怕,敢当战狼,敢于撕裂中国与西方的关系,撕裂了让他们来要求重建,我们就有主动权,当年是基辛格来中国,不是周总理去华府。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">习主席看了,我也看了这本《左禍百年</span> <span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中國國殤》,建议大家都去买来看看,当成反面教材,却最能说明问题,共产党打败国民党,靠的是外交,对苏联的外交对美国的外交,都取得巨大的成功,我们才有新中国。根本就不是小米加步枪,对苏联外交的巨大成功是苏联全力帮助我们打国民党,对美国外交</span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">成功地迷惑了美国,使他们保持中立。说句大不敬的话延安毛主席只是一个摆设,看过《左禍百年</span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中國國殤》我才知道,。国共内战周总理的外交才是战争胜利的关键,西安事变,皖南事变,甚至卢沟桥事件,都是周总理一手策划的,没有这些事变,怎么可能有我们中国共产党的胜利。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">八九风波美国人没有强力干预,反而很快就回来做生意,中国加入世贸,零八奥运会,一步一朵莲花,哪件伟大的国际项目不是我们外交人员努力的结果?拿下西方政要我们是花了大价钱,打仗征服不了西方国家,但我们有美元,有美女,我们能拿下美国几位总统政要或者他们家人,我们还拿不下一个秦刚?我说这句话,请大家不要做任何猜想,秦刚是自投罗网。傅晓田为什么发那么多微博,为什么一直没有人删除,外行人看不明白,我们自已人当然清楚。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">秦刚进入外交部,居然要调查我们在海外对西方政要的巨额投资,这笔帐他查一万年也查不清楚的。无论外交上花出多少钱,总比打仗买武器划得来。外交官得到一些回报,这是应得的,总得有人感谢我们付出的巨大努力,肉不是烂地锅里,就是烂在锅外边。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">秦刚拆我们的台,也在拆我们大国外交的台,这次大运会只有多少领导人参加,责任在秦刚,他想回到韬光养晦,不可能。美国已制定对华新战略,中美之间的灰色地带不存在了,必须亮剑,折断暧昧关系。暧昧关系你个人可以搞成,但大国之间,已是水火不融。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亮剑是谁提出的,是习主席,我们在捍卫习主席的外交战略思想,我们外交部要有定力,最后的胜利也是属于我们。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">*</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(现场记录,如与公开的报道有误差,请以此为准。吴慢山</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(转自某电报群)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-18747292282737030052023-07-07T06:08:00.001+10:002023-07-07T06:08:18.244+10:00李承鹏: 嘘,吃饭的时候不要说话!<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">李承鹏</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">文</span><span lang="EN-US"> 2023-07-06 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">前两天,山西介休一个贫困家庭的男孩被逼着吃屎,边吃边干呕,霸凌者在旁边喊“他想吐出来”“咽下去”,不知受了什么威胁,小男孩求饶“不不不,不用,我吃”,被迫吞下去……视频广为流传,小男孩精神也不正常了。警方介入,本着和谐社会、矛盾双方应相向而行的态度,以</span><span lang="EN-US">4.5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万元达成和解。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">吃屎怎么能和解呢?叔可忍屎不可忍,有新闻媒体就义愤填膺要求警方解释和解过程……我许久未见媒体站出来让警方做出解释这么幼稚的行为了。你以为还是大清哪,杨乃武与小白菜遭遇冤情,《申报》拍案而起:“兹本馆访得底稿,因再录供众览,以表奇冤”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">估计警方也一脸懵逼,在一个连真正意义的新闻都没有的地方,你他妈要啥自行车?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以为天下穷孩子择业的张雪峰老师说的很对:别报新闻系。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">成千上万孩子吃了三聚氰胺、郭利为女儿上访维权被判五年、最终妻离子散这种人间悲剧都风轻云淡被人忘掉,吃屎这么一件小事还好意思摆上台面?谁没吃过屎呢,你不吃屎能长这么大?忍一忍就过去了,实在忍不下去,就再加一砣屎。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">勾践说:大王,您的屎苦中带酸,应该是谷物吃得太多,不妨事,过两天就好。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">夫差看着勾践叭叽着嘴还认真吮着指上残余的屎,很开心。他知道对方怂了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">勾践也很开心,他知道对方大意了。待重返越国,卧薪尝胆,勾践终于一雪前耻大败吴国,逼夫差自尽,成为春秋最后一个霸主,并翻脸不认人杀掉功臣文种。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">子曰:吃得屎中屎,方为人上人。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中华凡百十代人,就这样津津有味叭叽着嘴在把勾践当励志人物的理念下熏陶成长着……“卧薪尝胆”,这么脏的词,被一代又一代的青年当成座佑铭,好比每个孩子课桌上供着一个屎盆子。所以,上下三千六百多年的中国教育史就是一场角逐吃屎的比赛史。不要输在起跑线,不要输在吃屎的赛道。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这两天,以指导天下穷孩子填报八股专业为己任的张雪峰老师“被病倒”,这让急待张老师制订人生赛道战术的家长们很焦急,愤愤不平。张老师对孩子们(其实是对家长们)激情四射、设身处地、入脑入心的的演讲,让那些想让孩子们少走弯路甚至弯道超车(为什么又是弯道超车)改变命运的家长们有一种佛家当头棒喝、茅塞顿开、拨开迷雾见太阳的感觉。张老师是六祖慧能,是时代良心,张老师帮普通人说话得罪了高层利益集团,我见过最感人的说法是——“张雪峰当了一回谭嗣同”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">消费确实降级了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">连鸡汤导师都成了谭嗣同。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我对张老师没啥恶感甚至无感,但你是不是不知道谭嗣同他爹是湖北巡抚兼署湖广总督,妥妥官二代的谭嗣同,并不教雕丝们如何巧妙通过科举弯道超车进入大清体制,改写个人命运,而是在菜市口流血断头也要破除大清该死的体制。这才叫良心。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">说实话,张雪峰老师“不要去报……专业”“而要去报……专业”“这个专业才会给你带来稳定收入”“那个专业才少走弯路少受欺负”,属于那种听上去不明觉厉,实际上没太多成功例子支撑的鸡汤导师,虽然比于丹款鸡汤显得更接地气,究其实质还是机场成功学的一个变种。当年有多少人听机场成功学课程,现在就有多少人听张老师人生赛道弯道超车。这个国家,老年人爱吃保健品,年轻人爱听成功学。人们对医疗体系不信任,产生了老年保健品,对教育体系的不信任,产生了张老师。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">人生赛道,张老师只是换一种方式让孩子们吃屎……屎是一点不少吃的,最多用苦胆压一下腥味。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">张老师最煽情的就是动员孩子考公,先不说公务员考题“下面四种珍珠哪一种最珍贵”“普洱茶为什么叫普洱茶”“铁锅用什么铁制成”“企鹅能否活在赤道”多么无聊雷人,如果一个社会良心帮孩子改变命运的终极杀招是考公是进入体制,逻辑得多混乱,这其实就是教孩子如何尽量自己少吃屎后,再让别人吃屎。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我看到一些文章写得很好,比如张雪峰不是教孩子们如何改变社会,而是屈从社会,还有一篇没查到作者的文章引用了亚当</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">斯密说的:中国人不缺乏智慧,但那些智慧都是为了满足生存的,是动物性的,跟精神层次的东西无关。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这些老师还是不了解当下某些国人(为了玻璃心们,特别注明是某些),他们并不需要精神层面,他们认为精神病才去追求精神层面,只要有钱赚,再脏,只要能让别人更脏,就能心理补偿甚至还从吃屎中寻出了美感。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我的意思是相当厚道的:逼仄时代,不是不可以屈从,不可以吃屎,但你得知道这是权宜之计,是哈着腰在吃屎。但如果你成天叭叽嘴吃屎还逢人便拉过来点赞:你看,老子有没有吃出米其林三星的风范……这就太讨厌了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">其实精致投机主义者也没啥问题,问题在于,当内卷严重到神州大地奔驰着八十万本科以上学历的外卖员,学核物理的去街道当了城管……你真以为自己有能力精致投机地穿着鲨鱼皮一路游过粪坑成为成功上岸的那一个?吹牛逼呢!无论张老师怎么帮你精心设计人生,工商税务央企那些好岗位被官二代富二代红三代占得牢牢的,哪轮得上你个雕丝,没听说“现在好的职位,就像艾滋病一样,只能通过母婴、血液、性交传播了”。所以,无论你考上</span><span lang="EN-US">985</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">、</span><span lang="EN-US">211</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">还是考公成功,安守你的世袭——大明朝军户这苦差事是世袭,我朝“群众”这苦逼角色也是世袭,雕丝连逆袭至康师傅泡面,不也瞬间灰飞烟灭了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">常看到一些小镇做题家感恩高考改变了个人命运,也许改变了些许生活质量……但会做题的永远战胜不了会投胎的,更多的小镇做题家是,过去在村里被村长欺负,现在换到城里被主管欺负,换成上街骑个电动车被城管欺负,换成疫情来了被楼长欺负。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">你从未改变命运,你只是改变了屎的烹饪方式。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我问一个公务员爸爸,“为什么要让孩子考公务员”,答“总比端盘子当服务员好吧”。我问“处长夹菜你不敢转桌子还赶紧帮他调整好菜口,跟端盘子的服务员有什么区别”,答“至少我是坐着的”。我“处长举杯你赶紧站起来干了,跟夜场陪酒的有什么区别”,答“至少我是有科级待遇的”。我“一个有科级待遇的端盘子兼夜场陪酒的服务员?领导让你加班你敢说去你妈的老子不干了?”,答“去尼玛的,少这么偏激”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">看,当了公务员只是拥有了向我说“去尼玛的”权利。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">张老师说的很好,“自由就是拥有说不的权利”。但鼓吹考公的张老师走到了自己的对立面。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">不说张老师,他是揣着明白装糊涂。黑格尔说“中国没有历史,中国史不过是君王覆灭、王朝更迭的重复史”。中国也没有教育史,中国只有各种八股、考公的循环史。黑格尔说这句话时正是道光皇帝时期,皇帝正忙着亲自出冷僻考题。道光五年,他出的考题是——“或乞醯焉”。理由很简单,因为正是夏历乙酉年,“或乞醯焉”隐含“乙酉”二字,你看,这他妈是考题还是变态拆字游戏。然而,至今考题并没有变。例子自己举。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">隋唐开科,李世民站在高高的城墙上看着考生们徐徐进入,抚掌大悦:“天下英雄尽入彀中”。“彀”的意思就是圈套、牢笼……再后来就是范进……再后来,就是天门山不堪重负跳下去的四名青年,是广州不堪重负就烧炭自杀的三名青年,是天津七个学生不堪重负“七连跳”。他们生前,没少被这个世界强迫吃屎。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">记住,很多人以为自己吃屎会吃成越王勾践,其实你怎么吃屎都只是被霸凌的介休小男孩。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">介休小男孩精神出了问题。歌手李玟也因为长期抑郁症离开人间。刚看到崔永元在朋友圈诉说前段时间他几次想飞上天堂,我告诉他“没事,这里是最大的精神病院,我们都是病友”。无论年少懵懂,才华横溢,还是顽强死杠,大家都想通过个人奋斗,却改变不了吃屎,吃着吃着屎,就都成了精神病。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中科院院士陆林说:疫情三年,新增</span><span lang="EN-US">7000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万抑郁症,</span><span lang="EN-US">9000</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万焦虑症,数亿人出现失眠障碍,这种影响将持续至少</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">年。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我查了一下,这个人数远远超过中国共产党员最新统计的人数,</span><span lang="EN-US">9804.1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万。为此我忧心忡忡,今后党员同志的工作负担更重了,就又要公务员扩编了,公务员增多,交的税也就更多了,由此抑郁症患者必然更多了。当然,最后蔓延到</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">亿人都患上抑郁症的话,也就无所谓个人命运,精神病院的命运就是你个人的命运,慢慢地,终于修成了命运共同体。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">我身边总有一些朋友常摆着一张苦瓜脸说:道理我们也懂,但我们没能力改变社会,就改变自己的命运吧。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">其实并不需要每个人都去改变社会,个人奋斗改变命运也挺高尚的,但前提得在一个正常社会,比如马斯克、扎克伯格……但如果你在朝鲜还想通过个人奋斗改变命运?在这个热爱足球的国家,踢球倒是可以改变个人命运的,只是这个梗说得很清楚了:踢得好可以见到金正恩,踢不好就可以去见金日成。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">还有就是,上面那篇文章提到“动上层的利益如动了他的性命,动底层人的观念,如动他的祖坟”。不不不,这位作者老师还是太善良了,我并不认为有些国人是观念问题,他们清楚地知道自己要什么,怎么得到,怎么把屎塞到对手嘴里去。他们不是侥幸心理,他们就是鸡贼。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">所以,改变观念的从来都不是观念,改变观念的只有铁拳。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">那些大白都上天台讨薪了。那些事业编举牌讨薪的会越来越多。</span><span lang="EN-US">120</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">万地方城投债重压下,江浙的公务员都降薪了……等吧,更多更狠的铁拳落下来。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">何况还有很多善良正直的人,他们是真正爱自己的孩子,他们付出很多努力带孩子离开粪坑,这让人敬佩。实在如果没条件,就让孩子在国内学一门手艺,千万别考公,千万别让孩子背行测,申论。至少,少一个公务员,雕丝们少交一份税,少交税,就少得抑郁症。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">如果还不行,大家就带着孩子在粪坑里继续修炼吧,讲个笑话:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">苍蝇妈妈生下小苍蝇后,就天天在厕所里吃粪便。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">有一天,苍蝇妈妈终于带着小苍蝇飞到花园去吃一砣牛粪。小苍蝇第一次看到四周鲜花盛开,芬芳扑鼻,无数的蜜蜂们嘤嘤地采着蜜,感慨万分,好奇地问:妈妈,它们在干嘛。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">妈妈说:它们在吃饭。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">小苍蝇问:世界这么美好,可是为什么我们要吃屎呢。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">苍蝇妈妈:嘘,小孩子要懂礼貌,吃饭的时候不要说话!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">转自推特:李承鹏(真正的大眼哥)</span><span lang="EN-US">@dayangelcp<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-indent: 21.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US">https://twitter.com/dayangelcp/status/1676964518013046785?s=20<o:p></o:p></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-1059613162937112762023-06-13T17:56:00.000+10:002023-06-13T17:56:06.116+10:00清和社长:当前经济形势“十问”<p> (转自微信)<span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">Original </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">清和社长</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; text-indent: 21.75pt;">智本社</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> 2023-06-11 </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">文</span><span lang="EN-US"> | </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">清和</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">智本社社长</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">就当前经济形势以及深层次的经济结构问题,我提出十个问题,与经济学界、广大社友共探讨。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一问:当前经济核心问题是总需求不足,总需求不足到底是投资需求不足,还是消费需求不足?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">总需求作为宏观经济学的基本概念,分为投资需求和消费需求。但是,中国宏观经济学家以及宏观政策高度重视投资需求,而容易忽视消费需求。历史上,几乎每一轮总需求不足,都是通过刺激投资来处理的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">凯恩斯在其《就业、利息和货币通论》中的经典解释是,以政府“投资诱导”促进私人投资需求复苏,带动家庭收入及消费增长,最终烫平经济周期【</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】。若国家自由市场中,竞争性政府的债务和货币受刚性约束,逆周期调节政策可以作为私人用品纳入经济学的一般解释。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但是,当下软约束时代,公共债务与投资过度扩张,推动名义价格上涨,难以提振家庭的有效需求和真实收入,反易造成通胀、债务风险和资源浪费。弗里德曼用真实价格、卢卡斯用理性预期理论揭穿了这层面纱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">实际上,总需求不足,表面上是投资需求不足,<u>根本上是消费需求不足,更准确说是普通家庭购买力不足。</u>投资扩张最终依靠消费来化解,不管是外需还是内需。当出口下降、内需疲弱,<u>大规模扩张投资的结果是产能过剩、价格下跌、经济下行、债务高企。</u>消费是经济发展的最终目的,消费还是经济增长的内生动力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">因此,当下解决总需求不足的核心矛盾,关键不在继续刺激投资,而是增加家庭收入和消费需求。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">二问:当前宏观经济政策到底是在扩张,还是在收缩?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年一季度社融开门红、信贷创纪录,<u>宏观经济政策表面上是扩张的,但在市场上的实际效果却是收缩的。</u>从两个指标来判断:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">指标一,利率下降速度跑输通胀率,即利率下降幅度比通胀率下降幅度更小,相当于真实利率上升、货币收缩。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年,中期借贷利率没有下降,</span><span lang="EN-US">LPR</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">也没有下降,但是</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">快速下降,下降了</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点左右,真实利率不仅没有下降反而上涨,相当于加息</span><span lang="EN-US">1-2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点;真实融资成本反而增加,真实偿债负担、房贷压力反而增加。可见,今年的货币政策表面上是扩张的或结构性是扩张的,但是在市场中实际效果是收缩的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通常,通胀稀释债务,实际偿债下降,而通缩推高偿债负担和融资成本。一般,美联储抗通胀,联邦基金利率要跑赢通胀率;抗通缩,则相反操作。弗里德曼在其《美国货币史》中论证了大萧条蔓延的原因:不是凯恩斯所说的流动性陷阱,而是美联储实施了错误的货币政策——加速收缩货币供给【</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">美联储过度紧缩政策“额外”地加剧了流动性紧张,加速价格下跌,增加偿债负担,恶化债务风险,导致正在艰难出清的市场陷入欧文·费雪的“<u>债务</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">-</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通缩螺旋</span></u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">指标二,财政支出增长速度跑输</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,即广义财政支出增速比</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP
</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">增速更低,说明财政在收缩。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">去年,</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,一般公共预算支出同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US">6.1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,政府性基金预算支出同比下降</span><span lang="EN-US">2.5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,广义财政支出增速还是跑赢了</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">增速,体现了逆周期调节的特点。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年一季度,一般公共预算支出同比增长</span><span lang="EN-US">6.8%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,政府性基金预算支出同比下降</span><span lang="EN-US">15%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,广义财政支出增速只有</span><span lang="EN-US">0.6%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,远低于同期的</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">同比增速</span><span lang="EN-US">4.5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月末,专项债发行规模约</span><span lang="EN-US">1.9</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿,发行进度</span><span lang="EN-US">50%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,低于去年同期的</span><span lang="EN-US">56%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月城投债净融资额转负,进入收缩区间。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上两个指标说明今年的货币和财政政策,表面上在扩张,但在市场上的实际效果却是收缩。</span></u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">核心问题是,决策者对当下的经济复苏界定为顺周期还是逆周期。若逆周期,是否继续扩张投资,还是调整思路?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">值得高度警惕的是,当前低通胀、高利率反推真实利率和债务负担反升,需要避免正在艰难出清的市场陷入“债务</span><span lang="EN-US">-</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通缩螺旋”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">三问:今年宏观经济政策扩张受约束,到底过度举债问题,还是难以纳入经济学一般性原理解释的问题?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年社融开门红,投资却弱开局。前</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月,固定资产投资增速明显弱于往年同期,同时投资的拉动作用明显下降。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当前,政府投资受多重约束:一是地方政府债务;二是房地产泡沫风险和债务风险;三是出口下降和家庭购买力不足;四是上游产能过剩;五是人民币汇率快速下跌。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在多重约束之下,财政和货币扩张呈现两大特点:一是流动性陷阱,大量货币在银行里空转;二是公共支出乘数效应下降,不少债务融资借旧还新。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">辜朝明在其《大衰退》中指出,当资产负债表衰退,货币政策失效,财政需发力【</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】。当前,</span><span lang="EN-US">LM</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">曲线斜率趋平、右移惰化,但债务投资为主的财政扩张受约束,宏观经济政策扩张力度明显下降。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">宏观经济政策受多重约束、效果下降,是施策中过度举债务问题、经济结构问题,还是难以获得经济学基本原理支撑的问题?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">四问:当前这轮价格下跌,是上游原材料市场出清所致,还是下游家庭消费需求和购买力不足?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这轮从上游到下游的价格下跌正冲击而来,导致整条产业链利润下降,抑制了投资信心恢复。企业忙着清库存、出售亏本业务、甩卖劣质资产、修复资产负债表,减少贷款、投资和雇佣,进入“白忙”模式。这是今年投资疲弱、就业不振的原因之一。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这轮价格下跌的原因:上游原材料市场出清与下游普通家庭消费不足构成双重“夹击”。前者是投资刺激所致的短期因素,后者是家庭购买力不足积累的长期因素。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">每一轮刺激政策退潮后,经济便进入价格下跌周期。当前这轮价格下跌源自全球疫情刺激政策:刺激性政策并未增加家庭的真实购买力,而价格扭曲引致企业过度投资、产能过剩。去年四季度开始,外需出口回落,国内需求又无法消化产能,企业主动降库存、价格出清。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这轮价格下行周期更深层次的原因是,家庭购买力长期不足积累的消费需求疲弱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">扣除食品和能源价格的核心通胀率,更能反映普通家庭的真实购买力。核心通胀率近一年没有超过</span><span lang="EN-US">1%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份只有</span><span lang="EN-US">0.6%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,说明家庭购买力不足。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年消费复苏呈口红效应和分化效应:需求弹性弱的日常消费、低价消费反弹,需求弹性强的可选消费、大类消费依然低迷。家庭收入和失业没有明显改善,日常消费和旅游消费抢占了家庭购买力,汽车、手机、家电等大类消费更难。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">只有提振家庭收入及购买力,才能彻底走出价格下行周期。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">五问:长期低通胀格局与广义货币快速增长是否构成矛盾,对国民经济是好是坏?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">广义货币近十年增加</span><span lang="EN-US">170</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿,近三年增加</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿,货币投放持续加速,但</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">逐步减速,</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">维持低位波动,核心通胀率呈疲软态势。</span><span lang="EN-US">CPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">近十年均在</span><span lang="EN-US">2%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上下小幅波动,核心通胀率近三年未超过</span><span lang="EN-US">1.5%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,与</span><span lang="EN-US">PPI</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">走势相关性明显走弱。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这种长期稳定却未充分反馈经济周期的价格,对国民经济与消费福利是好是坏?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">弗里德曼在其论文《货币数量论—重新表述》中重新论述货币数量论,此后他大量分析美国金融历史数据后得出结论:长期来看,货币供应量决定了物价水平。其对通胀的通俗解释是“太多的货币追逐太少的商品”【</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不过,美国</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">-2019</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年、日本</span><span lang="EN-US">1990</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">-2022</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年、<u>中国</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">2012</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">-2023</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,大规模货币扩张与长期低通胀格局共存</span></u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,货币主义遭受挑战。其实,只需<u>将货币供应量调整为货币流通量</u>,一切皆可解释。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">涓滴效应和反向涓滴效应失灵,到底是科斯定理、经济学的失败,还是现实经济的失灵?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">货币供应量扩张与长期低通胀格局的背离,说明经济结构性日趋固化。<u>大量货币在流入金融、房地产、基建等结构性市场,资产价格通胀或资源浪费,而下游消费市场、家庭部门成为货币匮乏部门,长期紧缩</u>。这就是结构性通胀(通缩),投资部门通胀,消费部门紧缩。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所以,长期货币扩张下的低通胀格局,经济结构趋于固化,价格机制趋于钝化,而价格不张则易弱化对供需的调节,无法警示与调节风险。只有打破货币、财政、产业体制及其政策构筑的货币“藩篱”,才能充分释放价格活力与货币力量。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">六问:只有救房地产才能救经济吗?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">房地产周期似乎决定着经济周期。拯救房地产意味着拯救家庭资产、地方债务和私人投资,降低银行爆发系统性金融风险和宏观经济过度衰退。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但是,房地产泡沫和债务风险巨大,刺激性政策只会押后然后快速放大风险。如此,<u>房地产陷入救与不救的“两难”境地</u>。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有人试图找新产业、新市场,如新能源、新制造、新基建,替代房地产来托举与拉动国民经济。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其实,房地产市场陷入“两难”,本已说明问题。试图将资源集中在一个产业以带动经济狂奔、资产膨胀,此产业思维乃计划思维。若找到第二个替代产业,狂奔几年后定然也是债务高企、进退失据。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">实际上,最大的市场是消费市场。<u>若家庭可支配收入占比提升至</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">80%</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,</span></u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿人之购买力,足以拉动大量产业快速增长,消费福利和经济规模均大增。国民经济便从房地产是解脱出来,进入内生动力的正反馈、正循环。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">换一个思路,<u>从计划经济到自发秩序,一切阔然开朗</u>。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">七问:这轮人民币汇率下跌对降息操作的影响有多大,是增加风险还是释放风险?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年人民币汇率快速下跌,其原因是内外金融周期不同,利差扩大推动资本流动。那么,这轮人民币贬值是否对市场期盼的降息操作产生影响?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今年以来,通胀率下跌</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个百分点至零附近,而存量房贷利率并未下降,市场利率下降速度跟不上通胀率,这意味着市场真实利率上升、偿债成本上升。价格下行周期叠加真实利率上升,<u>债务</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">-</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通缩螺旋机制</span></u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">或得以强化。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通常央行需降息应对之,然而利率按兵不动,是否有降息拖累汇率的担忧?如今,是担心人民币贬值,还是升值?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">东亚模式的历史经验显示,在国家转型早期,国内资本匮乏,资产价格低迷,政府选择压低汇率价格以吸引投资、刺激出口。当国家逐步接手“世界工厂”,国内资本日渐富余,甚至央行外汇占款和商业银行信贷软约束引致资本过剩,资产价格膨胀,并在特定的汇率机制中累积成“堰塞湖”。而原本低汇率刺激出口的模式,反成了资本外流与泄洪的风险因子。当汇率被动快速下跌时,降息降准的外部空间被压缩。于是,特定机制下的汇率陷入“两难”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可否效仿日本央行:放弃保汇率或将汇率风险置于债务风险之后,坚持宽松到底和财政赤字货币化,以提振需求和刺激出口,避免宏观经济陷入“债务</span><span lang="EN-US">-</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通缩螺旋”、金融市场出现“戴维斯双杀”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">去年,日本金融遭遇美元大涨和石油危机的双核冲击,日元汇率崩溃式下跌;今年,在经历山穷水复后,似有柳暗花明之势,持续货币“输血”最终得以提振通胀,日股开启牛市。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">然而,中国今日之金融条件,与日本完全不同。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在泡沫危机、亚洲金融危机、互联网泡沫危机三轮暴力去杠杆、极限挤泡沫后,日本央行在资产价格超低周期中开启量化宽松和负利率之“魔盒”。同时,日本在</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年代末实现了汇率自由化。此后,日元汇率作为一种有效的国际价格机制,持续地调节国际收支,不断地释放宽松政策累积的资产价格风险。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当前,中国处于资产价格与债务之巅峰,非自由汇率并未有效地警示与释放风险,<u>若放弃保汇率而大规模降息,以保债务、保资产与保增长,后果可能是股债汇楼“四杀”</u>。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">那么,汇率约束到底是好是坏?是增加风险还是释放风险?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">蒙代尔在其论文《固定与弹性汇率下的资本流动与稳定政策》中阐释了开放条件下货币与财政之策【</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】,后被克鲁格曼概括为“不可能三角”。但“不可能三角”误人不浅。从价格理论来看,“三选其二”为伪命题,<u>浮动汇率机制可以更有效地警示、释放和调节资产累积风险,同时约束货币和财政过度扩张</u>。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所以,汇率“两难”格局,如地方债、房地产,既增加了利率、汇率市场化改革的风险性,又增加了其迫切性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">八问:</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股长期过度“稳定”,到底是股票市场本身的问题、以商业银行间接融资为主体的金融市场的问题,还是宏观经济基本面的问题?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">与美国股市明显的周期性不同,</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股更多体现结构性。那么,</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股到底是充分反映了基本面,还是一直走“独立行情”?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其实,当经济基本面进入景气周期时,</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股对这一信息并未充分反馈,周期性波动不大,但结构性颇为明显;当经济基本面进入非景气周期时,</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股相对有效地反馈这一信息,但仍存明显的结构性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">其中的原因在于,<u>最近十多年的名义经济增长</u>,部分源自宏观政策层面从货币</span><span lang="EN-US">-</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">财政</span><span lang="EN-US">-</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">产业政策的资金传导,进而形成结构性涨势,股市最终呈现结构性的反馈。可见,</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股还是能够反映经济基本面,只是其反馈的重点不在周期性上而在结构性上。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">除了经济基本面,</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">股的前景对金融市场化程度提出更高的要求。股票上市、退市以及定价完全由市场做主,投资者“用脚投票”。<u>全面注册制改革旨在将选择权、定价权下放到市场,而这次改革的难点在于如何实现交易所的市场化。</u></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当前金融市场以商业银行、间接融资为主,投资银行、直接融资较弱。这种金融市场是否有利于降低企业的融资成本、提升经济效率?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">作为一种重要的直接投融资市场,股票市场一边为中产家庭提供理财渠道,另一边为企业尤其是技术企业提供直接融资渠道。股票市场、投资银行以及直接融资市场的发展难题,与当前的金融市场结构是否有关系?能否在商业银行与投资银行之间,间接融资与直接融资实现更加充分的金融竞争?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">九问:“强投资、强出口”经济模式为何没有转化为“强消费”,该经济模式还能否延续?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以日韩为代表的东亚模式,一条成功的经验是,以廉价的劳动力和土地吸引外资和技术,发展出口制造业,通过出口创汇获得更多资本,国内资本逐步从匮乏到富余,家庭收入提高、消费福利提升,最终构筑形成经济的内生动力与内外一体化。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">萨缪尔森在其《国际贸易和要素价格均衡》等多篇论文中,基于赫克歇尔、俄林的研究进一步论证了要素价格均等化定理。<u>萨缪尔森认为,只要存在产品价格的差异,两国就会继续开展贸易,但最终的结果将是两国产品价格、生产要素价格相等</u>【</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">林毅夫借此理论推测,只要持续对外贸易,国内资本逐渐富余,中国劳动力价格与美国趋于均等化,家庭收入逐步跟近美国。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">改革开放前二十年,中国资本匮乏价格高,劳动力丰富廉价,美国则相反,资本富余廉价、工资高,要素价格差驱动两国贸易,美国对华投资,中国对美出口。结构性的要素均等化确实在两国之间发生。随着外资与外汇大量进来,国内资本快速富余,与美国资本价格趋于均等化;同时,国内劳动力价格有所提高,与美国工资收入差距在缩小。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">然而,一个突出的现象是:劳动力价格均等化的速度,远低于资本均等化的速度。换言之,资本快速增长为何没能推动家庭收入快速增长?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">该理论建立在要素完全自由流通的基础上,相当于假设交易费用为零。交易费用越低时,出口创汇带来的财富增量,转为劳动者工资、家庭收入和消费福利就越多。在</span><span lang="EN-US">2001</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年到</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年贸易腾飞的时代,这个趋势颇为明显。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但是,</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年金融危机中断了这一趋势。此后三轮扩张性的刺激政策,以及上游非竞争性资源型经济体和下游银行、电力、电信等基础服务经济体,愈加强化了固定资产投资和货币市场的结构性。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如此,强出口换取丰富的资本以及货币扩张创造的名义货币,大量转化为固定资产投资,更少流入家庭部门和消费领域。<u>当家庭收入增长速度跑输资本扩张的速度,“强投资、强出口”无法转化为“强收入、强消费”,经济内生动力和家庭消费福利不足。</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">数据显示,<u>中国家庭可支配收入占</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的比重在</span><span lang="EN-US">43%</span></u><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">左右,近些年略有下降</span></u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,低于全球平均水平</span><span lang="EN-US">60%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。其中,美国超过</span><span lang="EN-US">80%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,成功转型的日本接近</span><span lang="EN-US">60%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如今,宏观经济依然是强投资、强出口与弱消费的结构。投资占</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的比重超</span><span lang="EN-US">40%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,远高于国际普遍水平的</span><span lang="EN-US">20-30%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">;消费占比只有</span><span lang="EN-US">50%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多,低于国际普遍水平的</span><span lang="EN-US">70-80%</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">所以,调整经济结构,从强投资转向强消费,将强出口换取的富余资本、无效投资节省的大量资本转移到家庭部门和消费领域,是宏观经济政策和经济体制改革的重要方向。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">十问:走出当前宏观经济困境的有效办法,是继续实施以投资刺激为核心的宏观经济政策,还是深化改革扩大开放?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">现在的宏观经济政策到了十字路口上,是时候考虑改变宏观经济政策的思路。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">基于“强投资、弱消费”的经济结构性,以及扩张性政策强化的杠杠率与弱化的内生性,<u>建议启动国民收入计划</u>,实施一系列提振家庭收入和消费福利的微观经济政策,替代过去以投资刺激为核心的宏观经济政策。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">国民收入计划包括:一是通过国企利润、增发国债、节省基建投资三种方式,直接给普通家庭无差异发放现金,考虑每年</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万亿,连续三年;二是降低存量房贷利率;三是提高国有企业利润上缴比例,给中小企业减税,给低收入家庭提供税收补贴;四是大力划拨国有资产充实社保基金,大幅度提高农村家庭的养老金额度。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">国民收入计划,旨在短期内直接提高普通家庭的收入,缓解当前消费需求不足的问题,而解决深层次的经济结构和增长方式,必须上升到制度改革层面。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当下,所有人的注意力都在货币、财政和产业政策上,是否降息、是否增发国债、是否拯救房地产,而忽视财政、货币以及经济制度的改革。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">布坎南在其著作《同意的计算》中,以方法论上的个人主义,将人们对公共政策失效的关注点,从政策层面上升到公共选择的过程、逻辑以及与之形成的制度【</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】。换言之,<u>与政策调整相比,更需要关注制度改革及其程序。</u>不论从逻辑上,还是从历史上,中国经济的增长主要靠改革开放。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">例如,地方债务风险,是债务扩张性政策的结果,还是跟地方债务软约束和银行信贷软约束有关?宏观经济政策收缩和过度的债务抑制政策,是抑制风险,还是可能诱发风险?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">地方债、房地产和汇率的“两难”,说明政策空间更加狭小,亟需通过改革来突破。比政策调整更重要的、比“以时间换空间”更有效的是,启动新一轮改革开放,推动经济体制改革,包括利率、汇率、土地、商业银行以及国有企业领域的市场化改革,从间接税转向直接税的税收收入改革,从基建投资转向家庭福利的财政支出改革,等等。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">以上“十问”,抛砖引玉,旨在共同探讨如何解决实际问题,以增进国民经济、家庭收入及消费福利。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">参考文献</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】就业、利息和货币通论</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">高鸿业译</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">商务印书馆</span><span lang="EN-US">.1999-4.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】美国货币史</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">米尔顿·弗里德曼</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">安娜·</span><span lang="EN-US">J.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">施瓦茨</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">巴曙松、王劲松译</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">北京大学出版社</span><span lang="EN-US">.2009-1.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】大衰退</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">辜朝明</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">喻海翔译</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">东方出版社</span><span lang="EN-US">.2016-12.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】弗里德曼文萃</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">米尔顿·弗里德曼</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">胡雪峰、武玉宁译</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">首都经济贸易大学出版社</span><span lang="EN-US">.2001-2.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】蒙代尔经济学文集(第</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">卷)</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">罗伯特·蒙代尔</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">向松祚译</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国金融出版社</span><span lang="EN-US">.
2003-1.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】</span><span lang="EN-US">The
Collected Scientific Papers of Paul A. Samuelson.Samuelson, Paul A. Murray,
Janice.MIT Press.2011-1.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">【</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">】同意的计算</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">詹姆斯</span><span lang="EN-US">.M.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">布坎南</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">图洛克</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陈光金译</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">上海人民出版社</span><span lang="EN-US">.2014-9.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">扫绿码加入智本社终身会员</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转自微信:<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">https://web.archive.org/web/20230612125243/https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Elj8ZgihRq28s87Gii8-jQ<o:p></o:p></span></p><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><p></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-27716627991564929902023-06-08T11:48:00.002+10:002023-06-09T07:22:59.397+10:00冯崇义:六四国殇34周年祭<p> 作者: 冯崇义 <span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">2023</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">6</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">月</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">3</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">日</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">备注:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">作者冯崇义教授是悉尼科技大学中国研究负责人。其在澳洲媒体上多次表示北京当局试图影响澳洲政治、控制中文媒体。</span><span lang="EN-US">2017</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年时,冯崇义来到中国希望了解中国</span><span lang="EN-US">709</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">维权律师大抓捕事件中被捕的律师情况,结果冯崇义被中共当局以涉嫌危害国家安全为由限制离开中国,后来中共当局又将其放走。(摘自“维基百科”)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(正文)</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一年一度拜祭六四亡灵的日子又已到来,又一次感受心灵深处那无法抚平的伤痛。手上沾有六四屠城鲜血的中共政权和窃国大贼,依然骑在中国人民头上作威作福、为非作歹。国运不济,吾侪命途多舛。苍天有眼,当助吾侪早日讨还公道。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">34</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年前,投身八九民运的亿万男女老少,没有人会想到中共强加给中国的极权制度会延续这么久。投身这一运动的老中青三代人几十年来饱经风霜,当年的老年已花果凋零、当年的中年已白发苍苍、当年的青年才俊稚嫩少女也已华容不再。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1989-1991</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间,世界十几个共产政权在“苏东波”中像多米诺骨牌一样相继坍塌,这种历史剧变曾给世人带来狂喜。人类在</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪以降建立的资本主义和自由民主制度,在</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪遭遇两大劲敌的严峻挑战,一是共产主义、一是法西斯主义。法西斯主义的挑战随着第二次世界大战的结束而彻底失败。</span><span lang="EN-US">1989-1991</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年间世界十几个共产政权的崩溃被世人视为共产主义挑战的彻底失败。由于<u>法西斯主义和共产主义这两个分别以种族理论和阶级理论</u>支撑的乌托邦都已灰飞烟灭,哲学家福山当时合乎逻辑地宣告“历史的终结”。在他看来,资本主义和自由民主制度在核心价值和制度上已经成为人类历史发展的极限,别无选择、无可替代,任何别的选择都只能是令人鄙夷的低劣选项。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不过,于今回眸人类</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">余年来的历史进程,我不得不说,中共政权</span><span lang="EN-US">1989</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年通过六四屠城而生存下来、发达起来,这一事变对世界的影响力,至少与苏联的崩溃旗鼓相当,甚至于更大。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“苏东波”之后的第二次世界冷战</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">苏联及其卫星国共产政权的崩溃使“自由世界”(资本主义经济和自由民主政治居主导地位的世界各国)大喜过望,朝野上下陶醉于“不战而胜”的狂欢。的确,这种地缘政治的剧变解除了区隔两个世界的政治铁幕,使世界资本主义市场遍布全球、无远弗届。自由世界匆忙宣告“冷战的结束”,热烈拥抱自天而降的经济机会、尽情享受滚滚而来的市场红利,世界经济的全球化在欢歌笑语中四面出击。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">然而,“冷战的结束”只是一个自欺欺人的弥天大谎。“苏东波”所展示的事实是,早就走上“修正主义”道路、也就是在一定程度上已经踏上从良之途的苏联东欧共产主义政权崩溃了,而最野蛮、最顽固的共产主义政权在中国、北朝鲜、越南、老挝和古巴依然存在。既然<u>冷战被定义为共产政权与自由世界在避免正面热战的格局中进行生死较量</u>,那么,在中国等五个共产政权仍然与自由世界进行生死搏斗、终极较量的当口,怎么能够宣告“冷战的结束”?!中共政权调动十四个集团军、二十几万野战部队镇压在八九民运中和平请愿、争取惩治腐败结社自由等有限目标的学生和市民,而且在六四屠城之后对体制内外的自由民主力量进行全面系统的清算,难道还不足以向自由世界展现这个政权与自由民主势不两立、不共戴天的邪恶本质?苏联东欧的共产主义政权宁愿交出政权也不动用军队屠杀示威民众,中共政权对并没有提出政权诉求的和平请愿民众却大开杀戒,难道还不足以向自由世界表明中共政权在共产主义世界里更为歹毒?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">实际上,中共政权统治集团以牛刀杀鸡、动用几十万野战军和机枪坦克在北京城疯狂屠杀手无寸铁的学生和市民,正是为了制造中国民众和自由世界对它的恐惧,从而不敢正面挑战这个邪恶政权。中共统治集团如愿以偿,成功地挡住了“苏东波”,中国也就取代苏联而成为世界专制政权挑战自由世界的大本营。显而易见,冷战并没有终结,而只是以新的阵势和新的方式展开。“苏东波”最多只是意味着第一次世界冷战的结束,接踵而来的是第二次世界冷战。<u>在第二次世界冷战中,自由世界体态依旧,只是阵营扩大了、战斗意志衰退了;共产主义阵营缩小了,而且大本营从莫斯科转移到了更加狡诈的北京</u>。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共血腥镇压八九民运,本是为了阻止“资产阶级自由化”和资本主义的和平演变。吊诡的是,鉴于全球资本主义和共产主义力量对比的重大变化,中共政权在依靠血腥镇压和红色恐怖稳住阵脚之后,在非政治领域向中国民众和自由世界做出重大让步,特别是正式为“市场经济”正名、将“计划”和“市场”都当成实用的中性工具。而且,为推进中国向“市场经济”的转变,邓小平下令禁止“姓资还是姓社”</span>
<span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的争论,为后极权党国资本主义大开绿灯。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共统治集团确实是将“计划”和“市场”都当成巩固中共政权的工具,而不是在价值层面真心诚意地拥抱以私有产权以及其它基本人权为基础制度的资本主义市场经济。但是,中共经济路线的这一转变,其效果立竿见影。就中国国内而言,从</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年代起,为红色恐怖所笼罩的广大中国民众选择了明哲保身的政治冷漠,在中共党国所出让的经济空间里苟且偷生。资本主义的神奇力量居然在党国体制中也促成中国经济的迅速起飞,亿万民众凭借他们的智慧各显神通、迅速脱贫而加入“中产阶级”的行列。中共政权在共产主义已经失魂落魄的世代,竟然能暂时获得长期的政治安全。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共政权在国际上的收获更大,居然在第二次世界冷战中占上风。而中共政权之所以能够占上风,无疑是因为在实力上占有绝对优势的自由世界丧失了迎战共产邪灵的政治意志。<u>自由世界在当时迫不及待地宣布“冷战的结束”、欢喜若狂地将共产中国接纳到世界资本主义经济体系中去</u>,只有两种解释。一是被市场诱惑、发财机会和经济全球化蒙住了双眼,对中共政权的共产主义本质模糊不清。一是虽然对中共政权的共产主义本质了然于胸,但唯利是图、急功近利而故意执行绥靖主义和投降主义路线。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">穷凶极恶的中共政权与唯利是图的自由世界联手,中国的自由民主力量当然不是对手。这样一来,中国国内的民主运动迅速转入低潮,<u>海外民运也被迅速边缘化,而且因为资源的极度贫乏而陷入无休止的内斗、分化和分裂</u>。坚定的民运人士在这种恶劣的生态中高擎自由民主旗帜苦支残局、苦斗求存、百折不挠,弥足珍贵。“香港市民支援爱国民主运动联合会”</span>
<span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">等团体风雨不改、每年六四纪念日都在维多利亚公园举办声势浩大的烛光晚会,表达“释放民运人士、平反八九民运、追究屠城责任、结束一党专政、建设民主中国”五大政治诉求,举世瞩目。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国宪政民主转型的迂回路径与最后冲刺</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中国宪政民主转型的历史任务没有完成,在六四屠城十年之后重返议事日程。</span><span lang="EN-US">1998</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年下半年,浙江、北京、上海、湖北等地的民运人士相继发起组建“中国民主党”,揭橥“实现直接民主选举、建立宪政民主政治体制”等宗旨,在共产中国开正式创建反对党之先河。</span><span lang="EN-US">1999</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月,全国各地上万法轮功信众汇集到国家信访局所在地北京府右街和西安门大街请愿,预示大规模民众街头运动将重现神州。</span><u><span lang="EN-US">1999</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年中共执政</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">周年前夕,李慎之的《风雨苍黄五十年》在网络上发表,</span></u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大声疾呼必须以体现普世价值的自由主义思想体系彻底取代祸国殃民而且被世界历史淘汰的马列主义思想体系,标志着当代中国自由主义的成熟和中国自由主义阵营的形成。中国自由主义阵营虽然无法形成统一的政治组织,但是共享自由主义核心价值,有自由知识分子、党内自由派(民主派)、民运异议人士、基督教自由派、维权律师、草根维权人士等六路人马。他们既在实体世界扮演中国民间的领导力量,也在互联网的“虚拟世界”</span>
<span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">成为能够呼风唤雨的“意见领袖”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">进入</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">世纪,被中共后极权党国镇压下去的中国民主运动以新的阵容、新的思想武装、新的话语、新的行为模式,浩荡呼啸于大江南北。基于新的环境和条件,新的中国民主运动在相互呼应的两条战线上展开。一条战线是依托互联网以及《南方周末》等开明传统媒体,展开中国自由主义深入而系统的思想启蒙,使人权、自由、民主、法治、宪政等理念广泛传播、深入人心,大幅度提高了中国人的观念水位。另一条战线是遍及城乡各行各业、结合民生和政治各种具体议题的维权运动。“群体事件”在一些年头高达</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万起,一些“群体事件”的规模高达在万人以上。</span><span lang="EN-US">2003</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年港人反对《香港基本法》第</span><span lang="EN-US">23</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">条立法的</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万人“七一大游行”、</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日藏人为纪念</span><span lang="EN-US">1959</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日武装起义</span><span lang="EN-US">49</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">周年而在拉萨等地举行集体示威、</span><span lang="EN-US">2009</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日维吾尔人在新疆乌鲁木齐走上街头游行示威要求中国政府善待在沿海地区打工的维吾尔劳工,都是维权运动的有机组成部分。自由主义思想启蒙运动和维权运动相结合,有力地推动中国的宪政民主转型。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当然,政治变革并不是经济发展的必然结果。那种认为对外开放和资本主义市场经济必然会促成中国政治民主化的想法,当今已被视为“中国幻觉”广受诟病。这种诟病的事实依据是,自由世界接纳共产中国进入世界资本主义体系,让共产中国加入世贸组织,将制造业搬到共产中国,将资金和技术转到共产中国,向共产中国敞开市场,促成了中国经济的飞速发展,却没有带来中国政治民主化。相反,<u>经济高速发展所带来的财富积累,使中共政权所能收割和支配的资源倍增,也使中共政权巩固自己的信心倍增</u>。中共政权将它所收割的民脂民膏用于暴力维稳,用于数码极权,用于支持国际上的专制政权,用于大外宣,用于对自由世界的思想和政治渗透,用于树立依靠专制政治和低人权优势在全球化时代迅速增强经济和军事实力的“中国模式”,用于对自由民主的观念和制度的全面挑战,与世人所期待的政治民主化完全背道而驰,<u>俄罗斯等一些本来已经走上民主化道路的国家反过来向共产中国看齐而陷入政治倒退。相比之下,自由世界反而要严重依赖专制国家,依赖中国制造业、依赖中国市场、依赖俄罗斯能源。与此同时,赞誉“中国崛起”、唱衰“西方没落”的声音即便在自由世界也甚嚣尘上。</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">支持中国对外开放和资本主义市场经济,是否天真幼稚?自由世界接纳中国变成养虎为患,是否咎由自取?应该说,对外开放和资本主义市场经济确实有促成中国政治民主化的潜力。伴随对外开放和资本主义市场经济而形成的中国公民社会,以中国公民社会为社会基础的中国自由主义阵营和中国自由主义思想体系,广大民众日益增长的权利意识和法治意识转化为争取经济、政治、文化等各类权益的维权运动,都表明对外开放和资本主义市场经济推动中国政治民主化的潜力。但是,<u>对外开放和资本主义市场经济一定程度的发展,并不会必然或自动地促成中国政治民主化。</u>民主化是政治,是基于自由主义核心价值的政治行动的结果。<u>自由世界在过去</u></span><u><span lang="EN-US">30</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多年所犯的重大错误在于,以对外开放和资本主义市场经济有利于中国政治民主化为借口,几乎是无条件地与中共政权合作而谋取不义之财</span></u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,没有将中国和中国人民区别开来、没有给中国民主运动提供必要支持。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">实际上,</span><span lang="EN-US">2012-2013</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年习近平接任党、政、军大权的时候,中国自由主义思想启蒙运动和遍及全国各地的维权运动都达到高峰,可以说是形成了于后极权中共党国相抗衡、与中共党国的维稳体制势均力敌的局面。维权运动的原初目标,是在现行法律框架内从事个案行政诉讼和群体抗争、落实各种具体的利益诉求,进而逐步推动中国法治的进步。但是维权人士在与维稳体制的反复博弈中已经清醒地认识到,没有整体的政治民主化,各种公民权利的制度保障根本无法实现。从</span><span lang="EN-US">2008</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年《零八宪章》的发表到</span><span lang="EN-US">2013</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年春天在中国官媒上展开的宪政之争,中国社会形成了广泛的宪政共识。当时很多人将宪政民主视为未来中国的唯一选项,形成中国思想界自由主义宪政、儒家宪政和宪政社会主义三大宪政思潮相互激荡的动人局面。如果形成良性朝野互动,中国当年便可朝结束一党专政、实现宪政民主转型的方向高歌猛进。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">不幸的是,中共政权在这样的关键时刻落入了顽固的极权主义者之手。习近平立稳脚跟之后,为了保住中共党国的红色江山、阻断只有一步之遥的中国宪政民主转型,全面启动中共党国的极权机制、竭力重建中共党国对中国社会的全面控制、实施极权复辟。这厮集黑帮头子和邪教教主于一身,执政十年以来一直祸国殃民、恶贯满盈。他带领其僚属仆从、爪牙打手胡作非为,推行严刑峻法、迫害政敌无辜、摧残公民社会、窒息公民言论、激化民族矛盾、恶化台海局势、摧毁香港自治、亲自部署隐瞒新冠疫情造成全球大瘟疫、使中国经济陷于绝境、使中国与文明世界尖锐对立。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">习近平的极权复辟,对中国和中华民族造成了极大伤害。而这位独裁者始料未及的是,他按照极权逻辑变本加厉、肆无忌惮的对内专制和对外扩张,遭遇强力反弹。在国际上,自由世界终于如梦初醒、亡羊补牢,开始将中国政府和中国人民区别开来,告别投降主义和绥靖主义错误路线,联手回击作恶多端的中共政权。</span><u><span lang="EN-US">2017-2018</span></u><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年是自由世界应对中共政权战略转变的分水岭</span></u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,其标志是澳大利亚政府制定主要针对中共政治渗透的《外国影响透明法案》和美国政府制定将中国确定为战略对手的《国家安全战略》。此后是实际上承认第二次世界冷战的现实,以不宣而战的方式迎战中共政权,涉及贸易、投资、科技、信息、情报、外交、军事等一切方面。</span><span lang="EN-US">2021</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月美国政府主办官方全球民主峰会,与在丹麦举办的民间民主峰会相映成趣,更明显不过地表明自由世界正在结成世界民主联盟,在全球范围内与专制阵营、特别是中共后极权党国展开全方位较量。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在中国国内,面对中共党国竭泽而渔的野蛮掠夺、没完没了的蒙昧折腾和令人窒息的监控封控,面对资源枯竭和千疮百孔的生存环境,面对破产失业等各式各样的民生灾难,面对备受欺凌而无法言说无处伸冤的悲惨遭遇,觉醒的民众再也忍不可忍。</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">13</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">日民间意见领袖彭载舟在北京四通桥上挂出“罢免独裁国贼习近平”等横幅,立即在全国各地以及全球华人社区得到广泛呼应。</span><span lang="EN-US">2022</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">11-12</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月间以“共产党下台”和“习近平下台”两大口号惊动世界的“白纸革命”,迅速波及全国</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个省市的近</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个大中城市,而且在留学生及华人移民聚居的世界各大城市得到热烈的响应。<u>这些政治行动表明,中国已经完全具备爆发“颜色革命”的社会条件和群众基础。</u>当然,“白纸革命”与“颜色革命”还有相当距离,还没具备成功的“颜色革命”必不可少的一些要素,特别是担任动员和协调责任的强大公民社会组织,以及由政治反对派、体制内外知识精英、新兴社会阶层和体制内开明派组成社会大联合、形成扭转乾坤的合力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">总而言之,面对中共暴政,觉醒的中国人仍然前赴后继为自由民主的中国而战。而且,这支反对中共暴政的队伍,除了遭受中共政权戕害的各类冤民,在前些年的经济增长中改善了经济状况的既得利益者之中,也还有很多人因为权利意识和宪政观念的生长而视习记中共党国为寇仇。即便是在中共上层,在不同程度上认同个体自主和个人自由的现代派,与完全无视个体人格尊严的习近平极权派,也已经同床异梦、离心离德。习近平竟敢冒天下之大不韪,恢复党魁终身制并装神弄鬼大搞个人崇拜,更是招致天怒人怨。我一再强调,无论习近平红二代如何折腾,终究心劳日拙、内外交困,无法将中共党国传给难成气候的红三代,无法改变中共党国二世而亡的命运。习近平登基以来的一切倒行逆施,只不过是极权主义者在穷途末路上的垂死挣扎。继承八九民运未竟事业的中国仁人志士,正满怀必胜信心创造朝野上下联手倒习倒共、实现宪政民主转型的新契机。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">关键还是在于中国人自己的选择。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-indent: 21.75pt;">共建政</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">73</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; text-indent: 21.75pt;">年,毛泽东是开国之君,坏事做绝;邓小平是中兴之主,行韬晦之计为中共续命;胡耀邦、赵紫阳在有意无意之间要将中国推上宪政民主的转型之道,被邓小平、陈云联手扼杀;此后靠江泽民的“闷声大发财”和胡锦涛的“不折腾”苟延残喘。在胡温时期,中国的自由民主转型以“维权运动”的方式重现中华大地,而且借助互联网形成大象无形的协调系统和动员机制,与中共的“维稳”体制俨然对峙,此消彼长而逼近转型门槛。胡温的继任者如能审时度势、顺水推舟,朝野互动跨越转型之坎,只是举手之劳。中国国运是如此不济,继任者居然是无知、无能、无耻的红二代习近平,是不惜一切代价延续党国江山和专制暴政的新魔鬼。</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">习近平登台以来,一直倒行逆施、摧残中国公民社会和健康力量,使中国从后极权社会向极权社会倒退。但是,习近平无法改变中国历史发展的大趋势,注定是亡国之君。<u>在中共政权崩溃、剧变到来之时,整个社会将急剧分化组合,以自由民主价值体系和普世道德伦理为基础的组织体系将迅速形成,就像辛亥革命之后的民国初年或“苏东波”之后的原共产国家一样。</u>届时将会有成千上万的贤明之士挺身而出,在朝野激荡和内外互动中完成中国的宪政转型和社会重建,也开辟全球政治民主化的新纪元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">转自电报网路。其链接(暂时失效):</span> <span lang="EN-US">https://ipkmedia.com/228327/?swcfpc=1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-10279614252088580772023-04-13T09:18:00.002+10:002023-04-13T09:19:30.619+10:00北大法律博士律师老许(志永)的故事<p> <span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">作者刘跃</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> (</span><span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">转自网络)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我和老许在北京同城聚餐上,我们多次的见面,因理念,信仰的相同,它使我们俩相见恨晚,一见如故。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我也很赞成他的主张。后来因“财产公示”一案,他入狱了,等我在见到他时,以整整过去了四年多的时间了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在老许出狱后,那次我去看他,发现比刚刚出狱时的他,瘦削的样子,此时他胖了很多,精神很好,眼睛也还是那样的炯炯有神。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">每当我问起他对于四年的入狱经历时,他总一笑而过,意志还是如当初的那样的坚定,无怨无悔,他说;”我入狱后看了很多的书,收获最大,而我在这四年看的书总量,它比我上大学时看的还要多,看书它使我内心也更加的壮大了起来”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">二</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">通过老许本人和他的家人我也了解到了,他在</span><span lang="EN-US">2O13</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年入狱前后的一些事情;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许入狱前的几个月,有大量的便衣人员在他所住的居室门前</span><span lang="EN-US">24</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">小时,不间断的长期看守着他,他们严防死守。为了让他“悔过”有关方面,他们还不惜多次南下厦门,动员他的岳父母规劝他。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在老许入狱的前一天,他的妻子怀孕三个月了,妻子要去医院做怀孕检查,老许他和有关方面要求,他要和妻子一同去医院,有关方面同意了,检查完后,有关方面人员当着他的妻子面把他送上了警车,而这一送,老许就是四年没有回家。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">入狱后经过刑拘,批捕的过程后,它又经过了漫长的等待,法庭要宣判了,而宣判的那天也是老许的妻子刚刚生下女儿的第七天,她还在坐月子里。当时</span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月份北京的天气还很冷,但为了能见到朝思暮想的丈夫,她裹上了厚厚的棉大衣,她艰难的来到了法庭,一直坚持到见到了自己的丈夫,等来了的却是对她丈夫四年宣判,她悲愤交加,从法庭回来后,老许的妻子,她便发起了高烧,大病了一场……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">而老许女儿出生的前后,从他入狱,直到他宣判,他都没有看到过他女儿一眼。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">女儿渐渐的大了,因老许的入狱,一家人还要生活,他的妻子要外出工作,没办法这样只能在孩子很小的时侯,把她送去了幼儿园,每当幼儿园里到了接孩子的时候,看到很多小伙伴们都是父亲来接他们,女儿她就会难过的问她的妈妈;“我的爸爸哪?”“我为什么不是爸爸他来接?”这时她的妈妈就会对她说;“你的爸爸学习去了,他很快就会回来接你了”。这以后,当有小伙伴问起她;”你爸爸怎么不来接你时?”老许的女儿,她就会扬着小脸,自毫的说;“我的爸爸学习去了,他很快就能回来接我的!”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">三</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在老许的家里我也见到了他的女儿,一个很可爱的小姑娘,好动,一会摸下这,一会动下那,一刻也闲不住,嘴中还总是念念有词。老许的岳母讲;”女儿继承了她父母的优点(老许的妻子也是研究生毕业),聪明,玲琍。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许入狱后,等女儿大了一些,每个月规定的一次探监,他的妻子每回都会带着他们的女儿过去;</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">隔着那厚厚的探监室的大玻璃,女儿经常的会问老许;”爸爸你啥时学习完呀?“”你啥时才能回家呀?”,这时的老许总会柔情的说道;“爸爸快了,爸爸快回家了”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">短短的探监时间到了,这时的女儿的小手,五指伸开,在她妈妈抱着下,她早以习惯性的贴在监室的大玻璃上,老许的大手随即也贴了上面,隔着监室厚重的大玻璃,一大一小的手贴到了一起,女儿说;”爸爸回家!“每当这个时刻,女儿的眼中总是有泪。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">四年刑期巳满,当知道老许要释放,释放的当天,有很多人准备去天津监狱去迎接他,有关方面怕引起麻烦,要维稳,在释放的前一天晚上</span><span lang="EN-US">12</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">点钟便把他送回了家中,可能是亲人间心灵感召的关系;当老许走进到女儿的卧室,熟睡中的女儿一下子醒了,女儿瞪大双眼看着许博士,嘴里说道;“爸爸你学习回来了”?话音未落,她起床,一下子就扑在了老许的怀里……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">从他出狱到至今女儿始终都在粘着他,女儿对他有着说不完的话。老许对我深情的说道;“四年的坐牢,他欠孩子和这个家庭太多太多了,我用了近一年的时间。最主要的是陪着孩子,让她真正感受到父爱……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">四</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许他提倡“公</span><span lang="EN-US">&</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">义,爱”,而他也身体力行的做到了这一切,为了这“公</span><span lang="EN-US">&</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">义,爱”,他似忘记了生活,忘记了家庭。他的亲人和我讲;“他除了他的事业,其它的他都是一片空白”。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许为了他的事业,他不讲吃,不讲穿,有时过着似“苦行僧”般的生活;他一年四季的衣服,不讲颜色和款式,每次都是妻子买回什么,他就穿什么。他甘愿清贫,乐善好施,他的岳母和我讲:“他的兜里不能装钱,他每天都要接触到来京上访的访民,遇到有些来北京访民生活困苦,他都会毫不犹豫把兜里的钱,全都掏出给他们,他总是在照顾着穷者和弱者们,而他自己的生活总是一塌糊涂。”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许的岳母还和我讲起一件事情:</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">一次女儿和老许陪她去逛街,当走过一家专卖店时,里面正在出售打折后的西装;在一件打扣后收二百元西服货架上,他们夫妻二人喜从天降般,象捡了个大便宜似的,老许拿起了这件西服左试右穿,爱不释手,还连连称赞道:“好好!”看着他们为了一件打折的</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">元西服欣喜的样子,老许的岳母哽咽的对我说;“当时心里很酸痛,很难过,他们俩都是受过高等教育的,而他们眼前的生活……”老许的岳母难过的没有在说下去!</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许他把物质生活,物质享受,他看得很淡淡,这次我去他的家中看到,除了一台液晶电视机值些钱以外,家中也真的没有太多值钱的物品了。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">他和妻子女儿现在的住房,除了他们夫妻二人首付以外,因老许的入狱,他们已无能力按期在还房贷,而家庭生活也遇到了很多困难,这时他们多亏了老许的哥哥,姊妹们无私的帮助,而他通情达理的岳父母也向他们及时伸出了援手,在这四年中一直在帮助他们还房贷。哥哥,姊妹,岳父母,真正的帮助了他的妻子和女儿,在这艰难困苦的四年里渡过了难关。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老徐的好友,黎雄兵律师曾对我说过;”老许生活俭朴。不讲究吃穿,当然老许也不富有,凭他邮电大学教师的工资养房子也不算宽裕,更主要的是他确实乐善好施,当海淀区人大代表期间全国各地的不少冤案访民时常去他的办公室求助,太多帮不了忙的访民,他时常就是从荷包里掏点路费给予安抚。还有一个可贵之处,也是许的难得,他一直认为公民维权组织除非全职的事务性人员需要获得工资外,其他的指导或是领导主导性非全职人员是不应该拿工资的,一来保持维权人权运动的独立性,二来议事决策团队成员间的独立性,也正是这样许的维权经历没有从公…盟拿过工资,他也从来没有向接受法律援助的个案人员收取过费用……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">五</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">老许的岳母经常的问女儿:“你究竟喜欢他(许博士)那点?”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这时老许的妻子对他母亲说:“他除了不会挣钱以外,那点都好。”可见许博士他们夫妻二人的感情很深……</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">今天</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">我获悉;北大法律博士老许因夏门聚会案“山颠罪”再次被判刑</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(注)此文章网友们的打赏钱,本人全部转交给老许的家属。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEbondOQFQE5UtVmH4kYMm0Hwb-6Y8poPH58Ww0tnDhVbulwFyG_5bNWIYoz9hVH_ey5xSoqasdHXuncl4nOnz3GEfHi70h1aXiRZWc2ftGvR9UdoiZ4o67KJcVDjdYNFEZhevYUdc-VdxAfQ7KunMI7btYyvPyClqP8QwitsNLclQi_0K9PlZoR7/s878/04.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEbondOQFQE5UtVmH4kYMm0Hwb-6Y8poPH58Ww0tnDhVbulwFyG_5bNWIYoz9hVH_ey5xSoqasdHXuncl4nOnz3GEfHi70h1aXiRZWc2ftGvR9UdoiZ4o67KJcVDjdYNFEZhevYUdc-VdxAfQ7KunMI7btYyvPyClqP8QwitsNLclQi_0K9PlZoR7/s320/04.jpg" width="233" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjioDi9nfqX97DgW8_VQa-TH7F_VvecQnz8dbX03Xy9rlG-4s9C0OgPFEz1xAa5kvVS6Gp04n4WmteLS_bec4HszRERkSVrOppTlM1dvOW6fa6ozv48Aiv18yPGZqIqPGyBnviAk3ooW1ZULfR6HfjcousTZiCKuzqsN-nyxFW_moAnWbqRa3X5lz9K/s640/05.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="640" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjioDi9nfqX97DgW8_VQa-TH7F_VvecQnz8dbX03Xy9rlG-4s9C0OgPFEz1xAa5kvVS6Gp04n4WmteLS_bec4HszRERkSVrOppTlM1dvOW6fa6ozv48Aiv18yPGZqIqPGyBnviAk3ooW1ZULfR6HfjcousTZiCKuzqsN-nyxFW_moAnWbqRa3X5lz9K/s320/05.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21.75pt;">(</span><span face="宋体" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 21.75pt;">转自网络)</span></div><br /><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span><p></p>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3344025756181251662.post-63121352097262192582023-03-11T11:04:00.006+11:002023-03-12T10:24:52.361+11:00全球亿万人签名拆除中共互联网愚民墙的倡议信<p> <span face="宋体" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">起草人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;">:乔鑫鑫</span><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> Email:giaoxinxin88@amail.com</span><span style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">朋友你好</span><span lang="EN-US">: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1989</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年后,关心中国社会进步的海内外亿万人士,对中共始终处在散兵游勇式的低层级抗争中,其最大障碍就是将</span><span lang="EN-US">Google</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">、</span><span lang="EN-US">YouTube</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">等</span><span lang="EN-US">31</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万个网站封禁的互联网防火墙</span><span lang="EN-US">(GFW)</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,切断了</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿中国人与全球其它</span><span lang="EN-US">66</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿人的联系,加剧了国际冲突,危害了你我在内的</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿人利益。但可惜的是,我们至今从没发动</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">次大规模的拆墙运动。但</span><span lang="EN-US">2023</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年起,就应趁着全球反中共大浪潮契机,将以往三五人游击战战术升级到发动</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿人大反攻战略</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1987</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年,美国总统里根曾在柏林墙下向苏共总书记喊话拆墙,仅</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年后这堵屹立</span><span lang="EN-US">30</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">多年的墙就轰然倒塌,苏联东欧共产政权</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年内全部瓦解。研究过各国帮中国拆墙的最新提法后,我发现唯一靠谱的拆墙壁路径就是百万人联名、国际媒体报道、多国政府向中共施压,拆墙必须靠国际政治解决</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在自由亚洲电台发表几十篇时政新闻后,我干近期发现,单靠爆料、分析、转发党国时政信息根本不可能全面挑战中共的合法性。而在</span><span lang="EN-US">Change</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">网上涉华时政人权签名案,却常能被英文媒体迅速报道并引起多国干预,此法是你我改善中国最低廉而又有效的方式,只要你</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">分钟</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">童逸女十已在上周的美国国会涉中共威胁的听证会上,正面提出了美国政府应帮助中国人民拆墙的建议。事实上,中共虽然经常抓捕翻墙者,但从不敢在行政罚单和外交场合,正面提及该墙的存在。其实联合国已经规定,自由的互联网是一项基本人权,该黑民墙一日事态压际化,中共高官都将享受普京式的待遇,国际上遭到反人类罪的滔天大罪指控</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共统治下,</span><span lang="EN-US">5%</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的人抢占了</span><span lang="EN-US">95%</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">社会财富,随着党国经济快速大崩溃,</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿级人口正面临失业、破产、饥饿的严重困境,中国当前遍地是干柴,黑民墙是中共苟延残喘的最后一道屏障</span><span lang="EN-US">!</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">中共经济早已严重依赖海外,无论中共是否决定拆墙、断网,墙事只要搞大,它仅剩的一点寿命,恐怕又得折损大半</span><span lang="EN-US">!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">让我们定下大小两个目标,</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">个月内征集</span><span lang="EN-US">100</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">万个签名,</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年内征集</span><span lang="EN-US">1</span><span face="宋体" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">亿个签名。本签名也将陆续增加二二十种语言版本,希望此事能引起联合国介入调查。下面热烈欢迎你来签名并转发</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px;"><a href="https://www.change.org/p/help-1-4-billion-chinese-tear-down-internet-berlin-wall">https://www.change.org/p/help-1-4-billion-chinese-tear-down-internet-berlin-wall</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 21.75pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf6eF39VnQx3URdF9DLb9dqYdja_h7u9YYMKI6ARFL623E7C8i_rTeVKioQrKoJUJXSyjlrrkQHYBrF5MLwPMZGbBx8Q2vtAUbrHQh-ab6oYwT38VOeM3NccBiJgYa7_a1pH_xBybp0-daTwTGMPfXSvYX3_Ga5Vqf5MVqbJmGanhu8y1RkZnnqCnf/s680/21.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="680" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf6eF39VnQx3URdF9DLb9dqYdja_h7u9YYMKI6ARFL623E7C8i_rTeVKioQrKoJUJXSyjlrrkQHYBrF5MLwPMZGbBx8Q2vtAUbrHQh-ab6oYwT38VOeM3NccBiJgYa7_a1pH_xBybp0-daTwTGMPfXSvYX3_Ga5Vqf5MVqbJmGanhu8y1RkZnnqCnf/s320/21.png" width="320" /></a></div>文森http://www.blogger.com/profile/07708723772949648839noreply@blogger.com3